496
FXUS64 KOHX 091126
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
626 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Unsettle weather Monday evening through Wednesday with showers
  and thunderstorms. Low chance for severe thunderstorms Monday -
  Wednesday.

- Above normal temperatures continue through mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Models remain in good agreement on a warm and increasingly moist
air mass advecting into Middle TN today as a warm front lifts
north. Dry conditions to start the day with mild temperatures and
SSW winds 10-12 mph. A subtle shortwave trough approaches from
the west late afternoon into the evening, leading to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing first across the west around 21-
00z then spreading east. CAPE 600-1200 J/kg, effective shear 30-40
kt, and lapse rates around 7 C/km support a low-end severe threat,
especially south of I-40. Overnight into early Tuesday the shortwave
lingers, keeping scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with
locally gusty winds and small hail possible. By Tuesday morning, the
shortwave exits east and high pressure begins to build from the SW.
Lingering light showers will end from west to east by mid-morning.
The afternoon looks dry and warmer with winds 10-12 mph and highs
reaching the mid 70s to around 80. Tuesday night remains dry under
increasing 850mb ridging. Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s with
light south winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

An upper trough digs into the central US, driving a strong cold
front through Middle TN Wednesday into Wednesday night. Wednesday
becomes the focal day for widespread precipitation and storms.
Warm, humid air (PWATs 1.2-1.5) ahead of the front fuel showers
and thunderstorms developing through the morning, becoming
widespread by the afternoon and evening as the front sweeps east.
Strong shear and moderate instability support potential for
organized lines or clusters of storms. Primary threats include
damaging winds, heavy rain, and isolated large hail. There is a low-
end tornado threat with any discrete cells ahead of the line.

Thursday post-frontal brings a sharp cooldown with NW winds
between 15-20 mph. Highs struggle to the mid-upper 50s with drier
air filtering in. Conditions turn mostly sunny and seasonable
Thursday night through Saturday as high pressure builds. Highs
rebound to the upper 50s to low 60s Friday and mid 60s by
Saturday.

Dry weather prevails into the weekend and early next week. return
flow resumes by Sunday/Monday with highs climbing back to the
low-mid 70s under flattening ridge. No significant rain expected
after Wednesday night through at least early next week. pattern
favors a brief cooler spell mid-week then quick recovery to
above-normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

FG present at most TAF sites this morning, and should dissipate
into the 15z hour. This afternoon around 20z, TS chances increase
in the area and remain for the rest of the TAF period. Winds will
be out of the SSW around 5-10 knots, with some sporadic gusts of
up to 20 knots this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      77  63  80  67 /  30  50  40  30
Clarksville    77  63  81  67 /  20  50  10  50
Crossville     74  58  74  63 /  10  70  70  30
Columbia       76  61  81  66 /  40  60  40  20
Cookeville     74  60  76  65 /  20  60  70  40
Jamestown      74  57  75  64 /  10  60  70  40
Lawrenceburg   75  61  79  66 /  40  70  40  20
Murfreesboro   76  61  79  67 /  30  60  50  30
Waverly        75  61  79  66 /  30  60  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Holley