020
FXUS63 KOAX 091048
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
548 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm Monday with very high fire danger in
  southeast Nebraska.

- Precipitation chances (30-60% PoPs) return to the forecast
  Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with the potential for a
  rain-snow mix in northeast Nebraska into northwest Iowa.

- Warm, dry, and windy Thursday, potentially leading to extreme
  fire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Tonight and Monday:

A low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern parts of
Saskatchewan and Manitoba late this evening will continue east
in tandem with an associated surface low situated near the
international border. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will
progress through the northern Plains overnight before stalling
and eventually dissipating over our area on Monday. We`ll see
another day of unseasonably warm temperatures with highs mainly
in the 70s. Lowest relative humidity of 20-25% is forecast in
southeast NE, where very high fire danger is expected during the
afternoon hours.


Tuesday and Wednesday:

The models remain in relatively good agreement in the timing and
track of a shortwave trough, which is forecast to move into the
northern and central Plains Tuesday night, and eventually east
of the area Wednesday. In the low levels, a cold front will
advance through the area late Monday night into Tuesday with a
surface low/frontal wave traversing far southeast NE Tuesday
afternoon. It continues to look dry through at least Tuesday
morning with temperatures ranging from the 40s and 50s along the
SD border to 60s and 70s along the KS and MO borders. By late
afternoon/early evening, 00z CAM data suggest an increasing
chance of isolated showers in far southeast NE.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, precipitation chances
increase (30-60% PoPs) with the arrival of the shortwave trough
mentioned above. It still looks like mainly rain along and
south of I-80 with a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening
near the KS border. Colder temperatures across northeast NE into
northwest IA will support a rain-snow mix, potentially
transitioning to light snow before ending Wednesday morning.
Should that transition occur, only minor accumulations (less
than half an inch) are expected, mainly near the SD border.

Breezy to windy conditions are forecast Wednesday with highs in
the 40s to low 50s. Areas that do not receive precipitation may
rise into the very high fire danger category as afternoon
relative humidity decreases to 25-30%.


Thursday through Saturday night:

An active mid-level pattern is forecast to continue with
multiple disturbances passing near and to the north of our area.
Thursday looks to be warm, windy, and dry, potentially leading
to extreme fire danger. There is some model signal for the
development of mid/high-level clouds, which would limit daytime
heating and the overall wildfire threat.

Multiple frontal passages are anticipated Friday through the
weekend with low precipitation chances (15-20% PoPs) Friday
night, and more widespread 20-40% PoPs Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions are still on track for the next 24 hours, with
winds starting to lighten up while staying largely out of the
southwest. By this afternoon, winds will have begun shifting
northwesterly, becoming northeasterly to southeasterly
overnight. Wind speeds are at their peak now, falling to below
10 kts by mid-morning while only a few high clouds disrupt the
sunny sky.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Petersen