522
FXUS64 KMRX 112353
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
753 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 737 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- A few isolated showers and storms will be around through this evening,
  though most locations will stay dry. A strong storm or two is
  possible, mainly south of I-40.

- Saturday, better coverage of showers and storms. Locally heavy
  rainfall is the main threat due to elevated PW values of around
  2 inches. Then showers and storms become more isolated on Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period.
  CHA has unofficially hit 90 again today, which makes 39 days
  straight of 90 or above. This unofficially breaks the all-time
  record for consecutive days with a high temp of 90 or greater,
  which was previously 38 days set back in 1993.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Better coverage of showers and storms currently exists to our south
down across AL and GA. This activity is associated with a weak area
of low pressure moving north toward our region. Some of this
activity could approach our southern most areas later this
afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, a few isolated showers and
storms expected through the evening, but most areas stay dry. A
strong storm or two is possible for areas south of I-40 with
straight line damaging winds being the main threat.

Shortwave still set to move across the region tomorrow, providing an
uptick in shower and storm coverage. The best coverage will be
during peak heating. While severe weather isn`t expected, a few
strong storms are possible. Locally heavy rainfall remains the
main threat due to elevated PW values of around 2 inches. A low-
end threat for isolated flooding exists.

Drier air moves in on Sunday behind the shortwave, which means
showers and storms will be more isolated. We then start the new week
with the ridge of high pressure building back into the area. This
will keep us hot with above normal temperatures and very low
chances for rain. Isolated, diurnal, showers and storms possible
over the high terrain. Mid-to-late week, a broad upper trough and
frontal boundary approach from the north. This will help to nudge
the high southward and transition our area to more zonal flow,
which will allow for rain chances to return.

Forecast high tomorrow for Chattanooga is 88 degrees, due to
increased cloud cover and showers/storms. If they do hit 90
though, the 90 degree and above streak will likely continue for
several to numerous more days due to low precip chances into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A few showers remain near CHA, thunder chances are decreasing.
Some showers are possible overnight and into the morning hours.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late morning
through the evening tomorrow. MVFR CIGs will be possible this
morning mainly near CHA. Increasing clouds overnight will make fog
development difficult. Some reduced visibilities will be possible
near TRI especially if clouds clear out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  88  71  93 /  60  70  30  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  86  70  90 /  20  70  50  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  85  69  90 /  30  80  40  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  85  67  85 /   0  80  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD