335
FXUS63 KMQT 091120
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
720 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty southwest to westerly winds of 25 to 35 mph are expected
  this morning, diminishing through the afternoon. The strongest
  winds are expected in the Keweenaw and by the lakeshores.

- Widespread snowfall is expected Tuesday through Wednesday,
  with lake effect snow trailing downwind of Lake Superior
  Wednesday night.

- Another widespread snowfall and windier event may impact the
  U.P. Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Early morning GOES satellite imagery and RAP analysis reveals a
~988mb surface low located along the MN/Canada border supported by a
110-120kt upper level jet streak translating east across the Upper
Great Lakes. Throughout much of the night, regional radar returns
have been present in the UP though 10-15F Td-depressions have
prevented nothing more than light rain/sprinkles mainly in the east
half. Further upstream however, a line of "stronger" convection
looks to cross western Lake Superior over the next hour into the
western UP. As this skirts the northern tier over the next few
hours, a quick hit of light rain and maybe a rumble of thunder may
be seen. Otherwise, as this sfc low quickly works its way through
the northern lake and into Quebec by the early afternoon, expect an
uptick in breezy southwest to west winds. Similar to yesterday,
another warm and dry day is favored this afternoon under partly
cloudy skies with warm temps near 50F. NBM deterministic guidance
suggests portions of the south-central may punch 60F. Further
norther, the Keweenaw may struggle to reach 50F given breezy west
winds off the lake.

Unfortunately, today will be the final day of False Spring as wintry
weather returns and a colder pattern begins to take shape late
tonight into Tuesday morning and further through Wednesday. The
overall progression over this period will begin with a surface high
transiting northern Ontario tonight while a weakening surface low
moves through the Northern Plains and a second surface low organizes
and lifts out of the Southern Plains on Tuesday. Preceding swath of
isentropically forced snow associated with the fizzling northern
stream`s surface low will stretch across the region Tuesday morning
into Tuesday night as the two features begin phasing. Confidence in
this first round of light snow is rather low, as CAM guidance varies
on the placement and translation of this snowband as it reaches the
western UP/Keweenaw around midnight tonight before moving southeast
across the central UP through Tuesday morning. Overall, light snow
less than an inch is the most likely scenario, though if a stronger
banded feature takes shape (as suggested by a few of the 00z CAM
runs), locally 1-2" may be realized in the west or closer to the
UP/WI stateline.

By Wednesday, the remaining surface low will lift northeast through
southeastern lower Michigan, with its inverted trough/deformation
axis stretching northwestward into the Upper Great Lakes under the
support of left exit jet dynamics tied to a 150kt jet streak near
300mb. The 850mb airmass looks to slowly cool through this
transition, reaching near -7C Wednesday morning, with additional
cooling to near -13C Wednesday night. This will help reinforce
snowfall Wednesday with a possible lake enhanced component, under
northerly flow, before transitioning to lake effect overnight
downwind of Lake Superior into the traditional northwest wind
snowbelts.

Hazards with this event will include the potential for light to
moderate, wet snow, becoming fluffier through the day Wednesday,
when the greater synoptic forcing is present and better snowfall
rates are expected. Deterministic guidance and their ensemble
counterparts continue to highlight uncertainty in snowfall amounts
through Wednesday. The most recent NBM 25th-75th percentile suggests
a wide range of solutions, the 25th being 0-2" and the 75th being 3-
8" (highest central and east). Meanwhile the latest GEFS/ENS probs
for at least 3" of snow by 00z Thursday show similar disagreement,
being the more aggressive solution (60-90% chance for at least 3",
20-50% for 6" east and central).

Attention then turns to another potentially impactful clipper
working through the region late Thursday into Friday. Over the last
12-14 hours, guidance has come into better agreement that the sfc
low center will track south of the UP through early Friday morning,
placing Upper Michigan within the area of greatest synoptic scale
forcing and favored lake enhancement. Differences exist, however, in
the track and strength which ultimately lead to variance in the
greatest QPF axis. Both the GEFS/EC ENS suggest a 30-50% chance for
at least 3" of snow across much of the central UP by Friday evening,
the NBM a 30-60% for 4". Additionally, given forecast area pressure
rises/falls associates with the low`s passage, ensembles point
towards a windier system with gusts >40 mph (30-50% chance)

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 720 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the daytime hours, then MVFR
restrictions settle in mainly from 06Z onwards as snow develops over
the area. Confidence in snowfall is highest at CMX and IWD, but
lower ceilings are nevertheless expected at SAW late tonight.
Meanwhile, westerly winds remain gusty at CMX and to a lesser extent
IWD this morning. Gusts up to 20kts at IWD and up to 30kts at CMX
gradually fall back through the morning and afternoon while shifting
over to the W/NW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Breezy southwest to west winds 30-35 kts are expected this morning
as a fast moving low pressure works east through the northern lake
this morning and early afternoon. Latest guidance pegs a 25-45%
chance for gusts >35 kts in the open waters eat of the Keweenaw this
morning. Opting to leave the current Gale Warnings in place despite
the low to medium probs. Winds lighten through the day, likely
falling below 20kts lake-wide by evening.

Tuesday evening into Wednesday night, another period of elevated
winds is expected, with potential for gales Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Best chances for gales are mainly east of the Keweenaw
Wednesday night. Another stronger system looks to move through the
Upper Great Lakes late Thursday, potentially resulting in high end
gales and storms Thursday night and Friday. Afterwards, winds
lighten to near or below 20kts lake-wide Saturday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ244-245-
     264>266.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW/JTP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...BW