781
FXUS64 KMOB 151943
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
243 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

 - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area Friday
afternoon and into Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires
over the weekend.

 - Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday night,
becoming easterly and lasting into the coming week. Gale force wind
gusts are expected, with conditions posing a hazard to small craft.

 - A High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from
Saturday night into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Looking at the big picture, for tonight through Sunday night, a deep
upper trough passing over northern portions of the Southeast and
north will move a strong cold front across the forecast area
beginning mid-day Friday and south of area waters by 06z/1am Friday
night. A dry airmass over the forecast area (precipitable h20 levels
1.1-1.5" north of the coast, 1.5" up along the coast and south).
This will help to limit any rainfall to near coastal and open Gulf
Friday afternoon and night ahead of the front. Strong northerly
winds are expected behind the front. Winds shift to northeasterly
over land areas, easterly over open Gulf waters Saturday night into
Sunday as a surface ridge builds south from along the Appalachians.

Looking at impacts for land areas, the first is a possible wind
advisory for late Friday into Saturday. North to northeasterly winds
around 15kt/17mph with frequent gusts of 25-30kts/29-35mph with
high values being possible. Areas south of Highway 84 most likely
affected. A drier airmass will move in behind the front. Combined
with the winds, and Severe Drought conditions, an increase in the
risk of wildfires is possible Saturday (more below). For marine
impacts, read below.

Temperatures are in for a nose-dive behind the front, with high
temperatures in the much above seasonal mid to upper 80s Friday
dropping into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday and Sunday.
Low temperatures see the same drop, from low 60s to near 70
tonight to the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to low/mid 50s south of
I-10.

For Monday on, an upper ridge over the Plains moves over the
Southeast and builds. High temperatures increase to back above
seasonal norms, especially over and west of the Mississippi/Alabama
State line. Low temperatures are slower to rise, with general
northeasterly flow and a dry airmass helping with radiational cooling
overnight.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is
expected the rest of the week. As strong easterly flow sets up over
the weekend, a High Risk of Rip Currents returns Sunday on.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A light, diurnally variable, flow tonight into Friday becomes a
strong to very strong northerly Friday night behind a cold front
moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building
south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming
week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong,
especially over open Gulf waters. With frequent gusts over gale
force along with some areas seeing sustained winds close to
gales, a Gale Watch is in effect for all waters Friday night into
Saturday morning, tapering to just offshore waters into Sunday. A
Small Craft is likely to be issued after the Gales goes down, and
lasting into the coming week, especially over open Gulf waters,
with a tighter gradient creating the strong easterly flow.
/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Strong northerly winds, dry fuels, and Severe Drought over areas well
inland from the coast will create an increased risk of wildfires
over the forecast area Saturday and possibly into Sunday. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for our Mississippi counties.
Regardless, all areas should remain alert to the possibility of
wildfires this weekend.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  85  55  70 /   0  10   0   0
Pensacola   69  83  57  71 /   0  10   0   0
Destin      70  81  59  71 /   0  10   0   0
Evergreen   62  87  52  69 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  63  87  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      63  86  51  68 /   0   0  10   0
Crestview   64  86  56  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for
     GMZ630>636.

     Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$