040
FXUS62 KMLB 091102
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
702 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Above normal temperatures and near record highs possible through
  Wednesday, especially across the interior

- Lower rain chances into mid-week, before a cold front brings
  scattered showers and storms late week

- Patchy to areas of dense fog possible each morning through at
  least Tuesday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Today-Wednesday...The Atlantic ridge axis remains draped over the
Florida peninsula through mid-week. Aloft, high pressure over the
Gulf drifts eastward and over the Florida peninsula into
Wednesday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Lower shower and
storm chances today, though CAMs suggest isolated development
along the sea breeze, generally south of Cape Canaveral, by early
this afternoon. This activity is then forecast to move inland into
late afternoon, with PoPs around 20% or less. 500 mb temperatures
near -10C and dry air aloft could produce a few stronger storms
with small hail and gusty winds to around 45 mph, in addition to
locally heavy downpours and lightning strikes. Otherwise, mostly
dry conditions prevail through the period.

Light winds during the overnight hours will continue to lead to a
risk of patchy to areas of dense fog in the late night and early
morning hours through at least Tuesday morning. Commuters should
use caution on the roads and be prepared for rapid changes in
visibilities. Overnight lows in the 60s. For the daytime hours,
daily sea breezes around 10-15 mph at the coast will push inland
each afternoon. However, while onshore flow will help to keep
coastal areas in the mid-80s, it will provide little relief for
interior locations, which are forecast to reach the upper 80s to
near 90. These temperatures are around 10-13 degrees above normal
and will approach records at a few locations. See the Climate
section for more details.

Thursday-Monday...High pressure is nudged eastward into the
Atlantic, as a low pressure system over northern New England
drags a cold front through the Southeast. The surface cold front
is currently forecast to reach north Florida by Thursday evening,
then pass southward through the peninsula into early Friday
morning. Increased moisture and instability along the front will
allow for scattered showers and storms to overspread the local
area Thursday, with PoPs 40-60%. A series of upper level
shortwaves will maintain a chance of showers into the weekend,
despite increasing surface ridging. Brief northerly winds behind
the front will once again veer onshore through the period. PoPs
20-40% Friday and Saturday become 40-60% Sunday and Monday, as
southerly flow advects additional moisture into the area. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s Thursday moderate into the lower to mid-80s
for the weekend behind the front. A brief dip into the upper 50s
for the normally cooler locations Friday night. Otherwise, lows
remain in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through Wednesday, as high
pressure remains in place over the local waters. Mostly dry
conditions, with daily 10-15 kt south to southeast sea breezes at
the coast. Seas 2-4 ft.

Then, a cold front approaches the area Thursday, bringing higher
rain chances and deteriorating boating conditions. There is low
confidence in just how poor to hazardous conditions may get, as
models are not consistent on timing or wind speeds. However,
northerly winds at least 15-20 kts appear likely Thursday night,
particularly north of Cape Canaveral. Winds then look to improve
into the weekend, as they veer onshore again. Scattered showers
and a few storms will remain possible into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 702 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Stratus and patchy fog are overspreading the I-4 corridor and
greater Orlando terminals this morning. IFR/MVFR VIS/CIG impacts
gradually improve after sunrise through around 13Z/14Z. A surface
ridge axis over the region will support light and variable winds,
shifting out of the east as the sea breeze develops and move
inland this afternoon. VCTS for sea breeze showers and storms from
MLB southward. Otherwise, conditions remain mostly dry.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Record high temperatures for east central Florida climate
sites:

       Mar 9        Mar 10       Mar 11       Monthly March
DAB    87 2024      86 2023      89 1967      92 3/28/1994*
LEE    88 2024      87 1974      88 2015      92 3/26/2023*
SFB    89 2024      90 1974      88 1974      94 3/20/2003
MCO    90 2024      90 1918      91 1918      97 3/30/1907
MLB    89 2022      90 1964      89 1962      93 3/28/1994
VRB    90 2024      89 2022      88 1986      93 3/31/2020*
FPR    90 2022      90 2022      90 1997      93 3/31/2020*

*- Most recent of multiple dates

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  64  86  64 /  10   0  10   0
MCO  87  67  88  67 /  20  10  10   0
MLB  83  66  83  67 /  20  10  10   0
VRB  84  65  84  65 /  20   0  10   0
LEE  87  64  89  67 /  10   0  20   0
SFB  88  65  89  66 /  10   0  10   0
ORL  88  67  89  67 /  10  10  20   0
FPR  85  64  84  64 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Law