671
FXUS66 KMFR 120435
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
935 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections...

.AVIATION...12/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the region
early this evening. Around 08Z, expect the return of IFR/LIFR
conditions to the coast near Brookings, with MVFR and local IFR
conditions also beginning to form and returning overnight north of
Cape Blanco. MVFR is likely in the Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg
around 12Z to 18Z on Saturday morning.

An incoming system on Saturday will bring lifting of existing
ceilings, but also increasing VFR cloud cover across the area.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected north of Gold Beach
Saturday afternoon, with light showers spreading inland across much
of the area into Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Friday, September 11, 2026...Winds will
continue to ease overnight, with seas at a minimum on Saturday
morning. Winds shift to the south Saturday ahead of a cold front
that will pass onshore Saturday night. Steep seas are possible
Sunday night into mid-week, especially south of Cape Blanco, as the
thermal trough redevelops.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler high temperatures today, significantly cooler
  Saturday/Sunday (15-20 degrees below normal), trending back to
  near/above normal by mid-week.

* Gusty winds/low RH this afternoon bring elevated fire weather
  concerns east of the Cascades.

* Showers/light precipitation expected on Saturday, highest precip
  amounts expected along the coast and north of Rogue-Umpqua Divide.

* 15-25% chance for thunderstorms over marine waters and along the
  coast.

* Wind gusts 25-35 mph expected east of Cascades/Shasta Valley on
  Saturday.

* Light showers linger along coast/NW sections Sunday morning,
  trending drier through the day. Dry conditions continue through
  next week.

DISCUSSION...A broad upper level trough will linger over the
region today, resulting in temperature trending cooler today with
highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s for most inland valleys. Gusty winds
and dry daytime humidities are expected this afternoon and evening
for areas east of the Cascades, resulting in elevated fire weather
conditions. Conditions aren`t quite expected to reach critical
values today, and even if they were, recent moisture has greatly
lowered fire weather concerns for the time being.

A stronger low drops over the area on Saturday, bringing a much more
significant cooldown for the weekend and stronger winds to the
region. The mid-level jet associated with this low peaks around 35
to 40 kts Saturday before pushing southeastward and strengthening a
bit. This will limit any headlines for gusty winds, but expect
widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph to common east of the
Cascades/northern California and the higher terrain. Some of the
windiest spots could gust to 40 mph Saturday afternoon. Despite
these winds, fire weather concerns will be mitigated by increasing
daytime RHs on Saturday compared to today/Friday. Aside from gusty
winds, Saturday will feel quite cool, especially compared to recent
days. High temperatures will top out around 15-20 degrees below
normal, feeling more on par with late October than mid September.
Widespread showers will develop west of the Cascades on Saturday
with some scattered activity across the East Side as well but
primarily north of Highway 140. Precipitation chances remain highest
along/west of the Cascades and north of the OR/CA border and amounts
are generally expected to be in the 0.10"-0.25" for the coast and
north of the Rogue/Umpqua Divide, with a few hundreths for the rest
of the area southward to the state border. Instability with this
trough will bring a chance (15-25%) for thunderstorms on Saturday,
mainly over the coastal waters and along the coast.

This low shifts east of the area on Sunday and conditions will trend
drier. There could be some showers that linger through the morning
across far northern areas and the coast, but most areas will see a
dry day on Sunday. Well below normal temperatures will continue
through Sunday, and we`ll need to monitor the potential for
frost/freeze products for portions of the East Side Sunday morning
and again, Monday morning. Lingering cloud cover may limit areas of
frost/freeze on Sunday morning. Then, with clearing skies Sunday
night and continued cold air in place, chances for frost and freeze
increase for valleys east of the Cascades. Temperatures trend warmer
on Monday onward, though remain below normal through around midweek.
/BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$