925
FXUS64 KMAF 091147
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
647 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- An approaching system will bring increasing rain and storm
  chances this evening through Tuesday evening. A few strong to
  severe thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the
  Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos Tuesday afternoon and
  evening.

- Warmer temperatures can be expected today and Tuesday before
  cooler conditions return behind a cold front on Wednesday and
  Thursday. The warmth returns Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Current observations show moisture surging back west tonight with
dewpoints in the 50s seen up the Pecos River valley and into
southeastern New Mexico. In addition, a low cloud deck is moving
into the Permian Basin and temperatures could hold in the lower
60s this morning. South to southwesterly winds aided by the warmth
this morning brings much warmer temperatures to the area today.
Highs reach the 80s for most which is about 15 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Southerly winds keep overnight
temperatures elevated tonight setting the stage for another
unseasonably warm day Tuesday. An increase in cloud cover may
reduce temps a few degrees but it will still be above normal.

The radar is quiet this morning and should remain so through early
this afternoon due to the presence of an upper ridge. The ridge
moves east this evening and increasing instability from an
approaching low could allow for isolated showers this evening
generally west of the Pecos River. Rain chances increase through
tomorrow when a dryline develops in the Permian Basin serving as a
focus for convergence and lift. The highest rain chances will be
east of the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin, western Low
Rolling Plains, and lower Trans Pecos. Cannot rule out a storm or
two could become marginally severe.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The storms move east Tuesday evening as the upper low moves east
into Central Texas, beginning a period of dry weather that
persists into the weekend. A cold front moves through Wednesday
bringing temperatures back down closer to normal for Wednesday and
Thursday. Highs will be in the 70s and quite pleasant. Afterward,
westerly zonal flow develops and remains into the weekend.
Downsloping winds quickly warm temperatures into the upper 80s
with some 90s possible. This could be the warmest temperatures of
the year so far. A trough develops over the Great Lakes over the
weekend that may push a cold front through early next week. Lift
and moisture will be too far north for any rain to develop in our
CWA, but a cold front could at least bring temps back down to near
normal.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

IFR CIGs have moved into MAF/HOB this morning. Conditions should
persist until around 15-16Z before scattering out. VFR conditions
then expected through the end of the TAF period as well as all the
other terminals. Light southerly winds continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               85  60  83  51 /   0  10  60  40
Carlsbad                 84  50  76  52 /   0  20  30   0
Dryden                   82  61  86  56 /  20  20  50  30
Fort Stockton            86  61  83  54 /  10  20  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           75  51  63  46 /   0  20  30   0
Hobbs                    82  53  78  48 /   0  20  30  10
Marfa                    79  44  72  39 /  20  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport     84  60  82  52 /   0  10  40  20
Odessa                   83  60  81  52 /   0  20  40  20
Wink                     83  56  79  51 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10