369
FXUS64 KLZK 101123
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
623 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

-Dangerous heat ahead of a weak approaching cold front has
 prompted a Heat Advisory for part of central Arkansas, eastern
 Arkansas, and far eastern areas of the River Valley region

-Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase across the state from
 north to south throughout the day on Thursday as a cold front
 moves across the state

-A Marginal Risk for severe weather will be present for the northwestern
 half of Arkansas for the potential for a few severe storms
 capable of damaging wind gusts between Thursday afternoon and
 Thursday evening

-The upper level ridge becomes re-established over Arkansas by
 early next week promoting hot and dry conditions, but will become
 fixated over the Southeast by mid-next week with multiple upper
 levels shortwaves within the flow pattern promoting increased PoP
 chances

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

As of 2 AM CDT, latest regional reflectivity depicts a scattered
complex of thunderstorms extending from north-central Oklahoma to
southeastern Kansas to central Missouri. This complex of
thunderstorms will continue to track east-southeastward overall
ahead of an advancing cold front.

Current CAMS trajectory has a complex of shower and thunderstorm
activity progged to begin impacting northern Arkansas by midday. In
locations in which cloud cover and/or rain cooled air has reached a
location, a noted decrease in high temperatures will be noted across
portions of northern Arkansas; however in locations where storms are
not anticipated until later in the day, high temperatures will once
again peak in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values
across portions of central and eastern Arkansas are expected to
reach between 105 and 109 degrees warranting the issuance of a Heat
Advisory.

A Marginal Risk of severe weather will be present between this
afternoon and into the evening hours across the northwestern half of
Arkansas. A moderately unstable airmass with MLCAPE between 1,500
and 2,500 J/kg via daytime heating may yield a few instances of
severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts.

Chances for additional rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible
on Friday as the cold front is expected to stall as a stationary
front near the Arkansas/Louisiana border.

Rainfall totals over this two-day period look to favor much of
northern Arkansas and parts of western Arkansas per the latest suite
of 00Z guidance. Expect scattered areas to over-perform and under-
preform across the state depending on where the strongest or most
efficient rain-producing convection sets up.

Into the latter portion of the weekend and early next week, the
upper level ridge will build back over Arkansas, but quickly by mid-
week move eastward over the Southeastern region of the CONUS by an
approaching series of shortwaves over Arkansas via northwesterly
flow which will increase PoP chances and end triple digit
temperatures across the state over this period bringing a bout of
relief that will hopefully stick around beyond the forecast period
of mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Expect flight category across all sites with the exception of only
KLLQ to lower to as low as MVFR with periods of brief IFR due to
lowered CIGS and VSBY. VCTS and TSRA will be moving into Arkansas by
Thursday midday and begin impacting northern terminals, then
impacting central sites by Thursday afternoon and will remain an
issue throughout the remainder of the forecast period or through
Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     98  70  90  68 /  60  60  60  10
Camden AR         97  72  94  70 /   0  10  60  10
Harrison AR       89  68  86  68 /  70  70  60   0
Hot Springs AR    98  72  92  71 /  30  30  70  10
Little Rock   AR  98  74  92  73 /  30  30  60  10
Monticello AR     97  74  94  72 /  10  10  40  20
Mount Ida AR      97  69  91  68 /  30  40  70  10
Mountain Home AR  90  68  85  67 /  70  60  60   0
Newport AR        98  71  91  71 /  60  50  50  20
Pine Bluff AR     98  72  94  71 /  10  20  50  10
Russellville AR   97  71  90  70 /  60  60  70  10
Searcy AR         98  71  91  70 /  40  50  40  10
Stuttgart AR     100  74  95  73 /  10  20  50  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ025-031>034-039-043>047-055>057-064-065.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74