199
FXUS64 KLZK 091120
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
620 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected today; large hail and
  damaging winds are the primary hazards

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Tuesday and
  Wednesday; large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible

- Quiet weather is expected Thursday through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Expansive stratus deck was overspreading the state from the S this
morning as low-level moisture advection was well underway. Temps
ranged from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Dew pts ranged from upper
40s (Nrn AR) to lower 60s (Srn AR).

Today, a low amplitude upper short-wave trough will track across the
state triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning
into the early afternoon hours. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. Temps today are expected to climb into the lower to upper
70s. Dew pt temps are anticipated to creep into the mid/upper 60s
over the Srn two-thirds of the state. Storms are initially expected
to develop over SW AR, elevated in nature, posing a large hail
threat with storms following the mean wind from the W. SBCIN should
decrease through the morning hours allowing storms to become
increasingly surface based as this activity moves Ewrd. EBWD is
expected to range from 20-45 kts, sufficient for sustaining
updrafts. SBCAPE and MLCAPE profiles of 1000-1500 J/Kg should drive
the large hail potential and a damaging wind threat. Midday
hodographs feature modest clockwise curvature in the lowest portion
of the atmosphere posing a low end chance of a tornado or two but
would be more favorable for deviate SErly moving cells. The bulk of
convection should move into far E and SE AR by early afternoon.
Precipitation should wind down during the afternoon and early
evening hours as these storms grow upscale into a complex or cluster
of storms. The main areas to be impacted by strong to severe storms
would be the SE half of AR. Rain chances dramatically decrease
across NW and N-Cntrl AR.

The pattern will remain active on Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper
level trough and associated closed low eject into the Srn Plains.
Large scale forcing for ascent will overspread the region. As upper
level impulses move through the flow in conjunction with large scale
background ascent, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
Tuesday afternoon into the overnight period. AR will reside fully
within the warm sector. SBCAPE and MLCAPE is expected to range from
1000-1500 J/Kg with 0-1km and 0-3km storm relative helicity of 150
m2/s2 and 200 m2/s2 respectively. EBWD is anticipated to increase
from 30 kts Tuesday afternoon to 60 kts Tuesday night. If storms can
remain discrete, all modes of severe weather will be possible
including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday as the
aforementioned upper trough passes over the region atop a trailing
surface cold front. Thinking forcing for ascent will be robust
leading to storms quickly growing upscale into a cluster or QLCS.
All modes of severe weather will be possible once again however
heavy rain may be the most notable feature Wednesday. Where storms
train, isolated flash flooding will be possible. Rainfall amounts of
1-3" is anticipated through Wednesday across a large part of AR.
Locally higher rainfall amounts are possible.

Beyond Wednesday, a cold front will push across the area beneath NW
flow aloft. This front will bring tranquil conditions back into
the region for several days. High temps on Thursday should be
coolest through the period with readings topping out in the 50s
and 60s under the influence of high pressure and light Nrly winds.
Thereafter, temps will climb back into the 70s to lower 80s on
SWrly surface winds as the surface high departs the region to the
E.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings will prevail across central and southern
terminals through most of the forecast period. VFR ceilings
across northern terminals will drop to MVFR later this morning
and prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Showers and
thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma will move east into the state
in the next couple of hours. Showers and storms impacts will be
confined to central and southern terminals. South to southwest
winds will become gusty at times later this morning into the
afternoon hours. MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist into Monday night
with some patchy IFR ceilings possible. Winds will become light by
Monday night at all terminals.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  64  80  64 /  40  10  40  70
Camden AR         77  64  81  64 /  80  20  20  40
Harrison AR       78  63  80  58 /  20   0  50  90
Hot Springs AR    75  64  78  63 /  80  30  30  70
Little Rock   AR  75  65  80  65 /  70  20  30  60
Monticello AR     77  66  83  67 /  90  30  10  20
Mount Ida AR      75  64  78  62 /  70  30  50  80
Mountain Home AR  78  62  81  60 /  20   0  40  90
Newport AR        75  65  80  66 /  60  20  40  70
Pine Bluff AR     76  65  81  65 /  90  30  20  40
Russellville AR   77  63  81  64 /  40  20  50  90
Searcy AR         76  62  81  64 /  70  20  40  70
Stuttgart AR      75  65  79  66 /  80  30  20  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...70
AVIATION...76