889
FXUS64 KLUB 162318
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
618 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

 - Cool and breezy conditions continue this afternoon.

 - The first freeze of the season is likely for much of the
   Caprock late tonight into early Saturday morning.

 - Temperatures warm back near normal next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Fall came in with enthusiasm this morning with widespread low temps
in the 40s and blustery north winds. Winds will remain elevated
through at least mid afternoon before gradually decreasing as
surface high pressure begins to settle over the FA. Surface temps
have remained cooler than expected through noon with most areas on
the Caprock still in the mid to upper 40s and in the low 50s off
the Caprock. There is still time for temps to warm, but cloud
cover would need to clear before the end of peak heating, and
satellite is showing the opposite.

The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a warning for tonight and
Saturday morning. There is some concern with temperatures dropping
to freezing or below across the southern half of the warning, mostly
due to cloud cover. Models continue to hint at clearing skies after
sunset just as the surface high begins to settle over the region. If
skies do indeed clear, there should not be too much of an issue for
temps to drop to freezing or below on the Caprock. Drier air
continues to work its way into the FA with dewpoints currently in
the mid to upper 20s and still slowly dropping. This will help temps
drop given clouds do clear.

Winds will be slow to veer to the south Saturday with winds
remaining mostly light and generally out of the north. This will
help to keep highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The forecast Sunday and beyond remains fairly benign. Upper ridging
will remain overhead through most of the coming week and will help
to highs by mid week to the mid 70s on the Caprock and low 80s off
the Caprock with morning lows back in the mid 50s. Another upper
disturbance will begin to approach the FA by the end of the forecast
period and could bring additional rainfall, but models continue to
differ from run to run given the forecast being nearly a week out.
In the event that rain chances increase, amounts will not be nearly
what was observed over the past few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. The
current NE wind looks to drop off throughout the evening hours to
about 5-10 knots, and eventually shift around to the SW tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...SC