998
FXUS64 KLUB 091105
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

 - There is an elevated-to-critical fire danger expected for most of
   the Caprock and the northern Rolling Plains on Monday.

 - A quick round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast Monday night
   into Tuesday night.

 - Blustery winds are expected mid-week, with a warm-up to follow into
   this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a split-flow regime encompassed North
America, with a quasi-zonal, northern-stream jetlet stretched across
the 49th parallel; and a large-scale, closed low that has become
nearly cut-off west of Baja Sur. Geopotential height tendencies were
slightly positive (+1-2 dam) per the 09/00Z objectively analyzed UA
charts, as the apex of a low-amplitude, subtropical ridge downstream
of the baroclinic low eclipses the southern Great Plains. Meanwhile,
the southern-stream jet streak associated with the split-flow
pattern was rounding the base of the open trough the closed low is
embedded within, with its leading edge over central TX while the
northern tranche also eclipsing the CWA. Elevated, mid-level
convection in the form of virga was observed earlier today, in
addition to several bands of ACCAS, the latter being a classic sign
of mid-level instability. Clouds across the southern zones will
advect northeastward tonight, with a clear sky expected area-wide
through the predawn hours Monday. The closed low is forecast to
rotate eastward into over Baja Sur throughout the next 24-hours,
with the onset of geopotential height falls to follow Monday night.

At the surface, a weak cyclone was located in southeastern CO, with
a larger-scale troughing boundary situated across the western High
Plains. The CWA is located to the southeast of this surface trough,
evident by the differential vertical mixing that resulted in a sharp
gradient in dewpoints on WTM data to the north of the CWA (i.e.,
dewpoints ranged from the lower-to-upper 20s from north-to-south
across the CWA, respectively, with dewpoints near zero degrees in
the northern TX PH). Winds remain backed to the south across the
southern tranche of the CWA before veering west-southwestward in the
far southern TX PH. The weak cyclone is expected to rotate eastward
throughout the predawn hours Monday beneath a shortwave impulse in
the mid-levels generated by the narrow corridor of horizontal
shearing instability evident on water-vapor imagery. Winds will veer
towards the west-southwest Monday, with the surface trough bisecting
the CWA along a line from CDS-LBB-HOB while winds become breezy
across locales northwest of the boundary. Near-record high
temperatures are forecast Monday at CDS and LBB, with highs of 90
degrees and 87 degrees, respectively. Very warm temperatures,
combined with breezy winds and low relative humidity, particularly
to the northwest of the surface trough, will yield a critical fire
danger across the far southwestern TX PH. A Red Flag Warning will be
in effect for Castro, Parmer, and Swisher Counties between noon
through 8 PM CDT. A Fire Danger Statement will also be in effect
from noon through 8 PM CDT for most of the Caprock and the northern
Rolling Plains. Higher relative humidity values and weaker winds
across the southern zones preclude fire weather headlines Monday.

By Monday night, the closed low will begin to rotate into northern
Mexico, with the trough expected to become more-open as a slight
concavity occurs within the northern-stream, quasi-zonal jet streak
translating over the northern Great Basin. The net result of this
increasingly progressive movement to the opening cyclone will allow
the leading edge of the jet streaks rounding the base of the trough
to emerge over W TX late Monday night. Moist, isentropic ascent will
largely be concentrated within the mid- and high-level theta
surfaces as the leading wave of DPVA propagates over W TX, leading
to the potential for elevated convection that will be isolated or
widely-scattered at best. The large-scale mass response following
the onset of the geopotential height falls will cause the surface
trough to slosh poleward before undergoing warm-frontogenesis, and
the moistening of the boundary-layer via both WAA and diabatic
cooling as it decouples will erode the depth of dry air enough to
allow at least a few spurts of rainfall to occur despite elevated
convection remaining rooted between 650-700 mb. PoPs have been
capped at slight chance, with a lightning mention retained, due to
the improvements to the EML heading into Tuesday morning. Severe
weather is not expected Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

At the beginning of the period, the closed low previously rotating
over northern Mexico is forecast to dissolve into an open wave, with
the positively-tilted trough ejecting into W TX late Tuesday. There
is some indication that a compact vorticity lobe may be left intact
versus stretching out entirely; however, this should remain trivial
due to the progressiveness of the trough. As the shortwave trough
ejects into the southern High Plains, the arrival of the 500 mb and
250 mb jet streaks, near 50 kt and 90 kt, respectively, will result
in backing of the deep-layer flow aloft and spawn a lee cyclone near
the Raton Mesa that is forecast to deepen to 996 mb as it rotates
into southwestern KS. Low-end windy conditions are expected to
develop area-wide Tuesday due to the moderate isallobaric response
generated by the cyclone and the high-momentum descending through
the mid-levels. Southwesterly winds between 20-30 mph, with gusts up
to 40-45 mph, are forecast; and winds should remain shy of advisory
threshold. The CWA is also forecast to be bifurcated by a dryline
extending southward from the lee cyclone, with a Pacific cold front
trailing not too far behind the dryline; and the dryline should
propagate into the Rolling Plains by Tuesday afternoon.

The magnitude of moist, isentropic ascent and related DCVA may lead
to the rare occurrence of high-based convection west of the dryline
early Tuesday afternoon. NBM PoPs have been maintained, but lowered
to slight chance, for locales west of the I-27/HWY-87 corridors; and
have otherwise been left intact for areas east into the Rolling
Plains for the afternoon and evening hours. The arrival of the dry
slot will eventually nix PoPs for the western zones by the latter
half of the afternoon, but the potential for thunderstorms will last
through Tuesday evening in the Rolling Plains. Boundary-parallel
flow would yield a mess of fast-moving, multi-cellular clusters,
with the potential for weak, mid-level mesocyclones that may produce
a large hail and/or damaging wind event or two in the Rolling Plains
during the late afternoon and evening hours before storms move east
of the 100th meridian by nightfall. Despite the somewhat strong
gradient winds Tuesday, the fire weather potential will be curtailed
by the higher relative humidity (e.g., near and above 20 percent),
but elevated fire weather conditions may still develop to the west
of the dryline despite the marginal RH values.

PoPs will wane quickly Tuesday night as the dry slot advects over W
TX, with winds expected to diminish during the overnight hours
following the passage of the Pacific cold front as the core of the
jet streaks translate east of the CWA. A strong cold front is then
forecast to blast through the CWA Wednesday, with advisory-level
winds forecast for most of W TX. Winds were raised to align with the
NBM 75th percentile, which lies within the middle of the MEX/ECX/ECM
guidance. Much cooler temperatures will follow, with highs peaking
in the middle 60s for most locales Wednesday. Winds will subside by
dusk Wednesday as a 1030 mb surface high rotates into the southern
Great Plains, with near-freezing lows forecast Thursday morning. The
upper air pattern is then forecast to deamplify as a subtropical
ridge nudges northward into the Desert Southwest, with dry and very
warm weather to follow by this weekend.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

CIGS have come into the KLBB terminal lower than previously
anticipated dropping into IFR. The edge of the low CIGS will
remain close to the KLBB terminal, therefore, conditions may vary
between IFR and VFR. These low CIGS are expected to dissipate
around 15Z this morning. Another round of low CIGS/visbys may
present itself around 11-12Z Tuesday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ021>023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01