368
FXUS63 KLMK 091218
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
818 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Partly sunny and dry today, with highs in the 70s.

* Very warm and breezy Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong thunderstorms
  and heavy rainfall are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night as a
  strong cold front moves through the region.

* Dry and much cooler behind the front on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

GOES fog channel and KY Mesonet cameras show the dense fog shifting
north this morning, now approaching the Ohio River. This fog is
quite dense, with vis reports of a quarter mile in many locations.
Though it is patchy, as we are seeing mainly the eastern half of
Louisville impacted by dense fog, but still yet to see any vis
reductions to the west. However, given the northward spread in fog,
have expanded the Dense Fog Advisory northward to include the I-64
corridor in KY. Decided to keep the expiration time at 14z still, as
we should begin to see gradual improvements as the sun rises, though
there is a chance we will need to extend the time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Conditions are dry and cool early this morning. Sfc high pressure is
positioned over the Southeast, just southeast of our area. Areas of
fog and scattered low clouds continue to develop across south-
central KY, where winds are nearly calm in closer proximity to the
sfc high. The fog and low clouds are expected to continue,
especially across the southeastern forecast area, through mid-
morning before dissipating.

Today, an area of low pressure is forecast to race northeast across
Ontario and Quebec, while a cold front pushes southeast through
portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest. Southeast of the cold
front, a broad area of stronger SW low-level flow/WAA will extend
across the Mid-MS and OH Valley. Low-level moisture advection should
also produce increasing SCT cumulus from the southwest by mid to
late afternoon. So look for partly to mostly sunny conditions during
the daytime with increasing winds from the SW. Afternoon gusts will
reach 20-25 mph, with a few peak gusts near 30 mph. This pattern
will help boost afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 70s.

Tonight, an area of low pressure will develop across the central
Plains. We`ll see continued moisture transport into the region as a
weak mid-level shortwave impulse slides east over the Lower OH and
TN Valley. Isolated to scattered showers look possible overnight
into early Tue, especially across south-central KY. A fairly tight
pressure gradient will yield a steady south wind and mild temps
overnight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Tuesday - Tuesday Night...

Tuesday, we start off with split flow aloft. An upper low is
forecast to rotate east-northeast across northern Mexico, while an
upper level trough begins to amplify over the northern Rockies. At
the surface, an area of low pressure develops east along the wavy
frontal boundary stretching across the central Plains and Midwest. A
warm front will likely extend east across northern IL/IN. This
overall setup should keep the primary focus for convection off to
our northwest closer to the sfc low, nose of the LLJ, and along the
warm front. Overall, the forecast for Tuesday (at least during the
day) has trended somewhat drier. However, deep convection should
blossom across portions of MO/IL late Tuesday while starting to fill
in further south in the warm sector. Expect increasing shower and
storm chances Tuesday night as storm coverage increases and activity
races to the northeast.

Some stronger thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are possible Tuesday
night, but the overall severe risk may stay fairly low with
convection remaining elevated in nature. Temperatures will remain
well above normal through Tue/Wed with highs in the 70s.


Wednesday - Wednesday Night...

On Wednesday, the southern stream wave will continue east across
Texas while the northern stream trough continues to amplify over the
Upper Midwest. Sfc low pressure should tend to deepen northeast
across the eastern Great Lakes, with a cold front sinking southeast
into the Lower OH Valley by evening. Deep layer SW flow will produce
PW values up to 1.50 inches (near the climatological 99th
percentile) ahead of the cold front.

Increasing synoptic scale ascent and deep moisture will fuel
widespread showers and storms Wednesday into Wednesday night. The
mesoscale details, like convective evolution, timing, and
destabilization, remain fairly uncertain at this time range.
However, given the presence of warm, moist low-level air and strong
deep-layer shear, severe storms are possible. Heavy rainfall could
also produce localized flooding.


Thursday - Sunday...

Much cooler air spills into the region by Thursday behind the cold
front. High pressure builds in from the west. Expect dry weather
with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. High pressure quickly
shifts southeast, allowing the redevelopment of southwest flow
Friday through the weekend. Highs should recover into the 60s for
Friday and Saturday, with 70s possible by Sunday. Expect a few cool
nights in a row, with lows in the 30s and 40s. A deepening low
pressure system could bring showers and thunderstorms back to the
area by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 659 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Combination of fog and low clouds continues to drift north over
central KY this morning. The low-level moisture will slowly mix out
through mid to late morning, but confidence is a bit lower than
normal on the exact timing.

Back to VFR this afternoon with increasing SW winds. Gusts to 20-25
kts look possible between 17-23Z. Additional low-level moisture will
advect into the region from the southwest late this evening and
overnight, which will bring additional IFR and low-end MVFR
ceilings. Spotty light rain will also be possible tonight,
especially across south-central KY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KYZ027-028-045>047-053>055-061>067-070>078-081-082.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ029-030-
     034>043-048-049-056-057.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW