Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
115 FXUS62 KKEY 091406 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1006 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure dominant across the area will continue to support an extended period of relatively unremarkable weather. - Generally moderate easterly breezes will prevail over the early week, eventually veering to the southeast sometime during the middle of the week. - Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers (10% to 20%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026 Mostly sunny skies are observed across the Florida Keys this morning. Dew points are remaining steady in the lower 70s, and temperatures are once again on track to reach the lower 80s along the island chain. KBYX radar returns are observing popcorn showers across the Straits of Florida. GOES-East microphysics observations show slightly more low altitude cloud coverage, which makes sense as not many clouds are generating measurable rainfall. The wind field across the Straits does not show any signs of generating lift to fuel shower development. The morning KKEY sounding supported this pattern. Low level winds were nearly unidirectional and a weak inversion was in place at approximately 4000 feet. Sampled PWAT was between the 50th and 75th percentile. Wind speeds are slightly weaker along the reef when compared to the weekend conditions. Overall, weather this afternoon through tonight looks relatively uneventful for the Keys. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 441 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026 High pressure centered near Bermuda will remain the main driver for the Florida Keys sensible weather through at least the middle of the week. The western side of this ridge extends over Florida and into the Gulf. This will continue to promote gentle to moderate mainly easterly breezes through Tuesday night. Low- level moisture will remain just enough to keep episodic showers remaining through mid week. Temperatures will remain above normal for this week with daytime highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the mid 70s. Looking ahead at the extended, late this week, there remain signals for a cold front to potentially try and press southward along the Florida Peninsula. However, latest indications are for this front to be decaying as it approaches the Keys. That being said, its moisture is expected to remain across the area resulting in increasing rain chances through the period. In addition, instability will be increasing across the area along with ample upper level shortwave troughs traversing across the area embedded in the broader longwave trough. Therefore, thunder has been added to the forecast for Friday through Sunday. Dew points may also nudge down a few degrees making the change barely noticeable. Stay tuned! && .MARINE... Issued at 441 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure is centered near Bermuda with the western periphery of this ridge extending west into Florida and the Gulf. As the high retreats further into the Atlantic this week, breezes will shift to the east to southeast. A decaying frontal boundary is anticipated to drift southeastward across the Gulf late week which may create for a chaotic wind pattern across the Florida Keys coastal waters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the upcoming TAF period. Stray cumulus clouds south of the terminals will occasionally cause cloud cover near EYW and MTH. While very unlikely, short lived MVFR CIGs are possible. Winds will remain east to southeast in the 5 to 10 knot range. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2001, the daily record low temperature of 54F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 75 83 75 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 83 76 83 76 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest