244
FXUS63 KJKL 091131
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
731 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend begins today and lasts through Wednesday.

- A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms
  Wednesday or Wednesday night.

- After a sharp cooldown Thursday, mild temperatures return for
  Friday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 731 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026

The forecast is on track. It has been quite difficult to ascertain
how extensive the dense fog is, and has been, in the counties with
a Dense Fog Advisory. Will thus allow the advisory to continue,
most likely until expiration.

UPDATE Issued at 542 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026

Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for many of our southwestern and
southern counties, and issued a Special Weather Statement for
locally dense fog for much of the central part of the forecast
area where dense fog seems to be confined a bit more to our area
rivers. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with no significant
changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026

Aloft, strong zonal flow continues across the northern CONUS while
an upper low resides just west of Baja California. A southern stream
disturbance within weaker zonal flow will move relatively slowly
from the Red River Valley to the Tennessee Valley through tonight.
Meanwhile, an upper disturbance within the northern stream zonal
flow over the Pacific Northwest will begin to strengthen a cold
front over the central CONUS while the upper low off the Baja
California coast weakens to an open wave and moves to the West Texas
Panhandle by Tuesday evening. At the surface, a stationary front
dissipates today over the Southeast US, while a northern-stream
stationary front becomes established well to our north across the
Southern Great Lakes Region.

Strong surface heating will help to burn off any low clouds and fog
by early this afternoon, with sunny to mostly sunny skies and weak
warm advection allowing for warmer conditions this afternoon with
highs in the 70s. The aforementioned southern-stream disturbance
begins to approach the area from the southwest tonight, with
increasing clouds and moisture through the night. Thus, shower and
thunderstorm chances are introduced to the forecast, particularly
after midnight, and especially west of Interstate 75.

The low temperature forecast is somewhat tricky tonight, as just
thin high clouds are expected initially, especially east of
Interstate 75 ahead of increasing low clouds to the west. Thus,
while most locations are likely to remain in the upper 50s for lows,
sheltered valleys, especially east of the escarpment and Interstate
75, may see lows dip as low as the upper 40s to lower 50s with good
radiational cooling during the mid to late evening hours.

A chance of showers and thunderstorms persists through the day
Tuesday as a mid-level disturbance moves across the area with a warm
front likely moving northeast across the area. Highs are expected to
reach the mid to upper 70s across eastern Kentucky, which is about
20 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026

The forecast period begins with the area in the warm sector of a
surface low tracking across the Central Plains into the Great Lakes.
The origin of this surface low is a cut-off feature that began
spinning off the coast of Baja California. Through the week, this
feature will meander eastward before finally reaching the Mid-
Mississippi Valley by the start of the forecast period. At the same
time, an upper-level trough will be diving southeastward out of the
northern Rockies toward the Great Lakes. This combination will bring
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday as a surface cold front slowly moves eastward toward the
CWA.

By Wednesday morning, the surface low forced by the upper-level
trough is progged to be over the southern Great Lakes, with the cold
front stretching southward through the Commonwealth. Riding along
the cold front is the cut-off feature that is progged to be over the
Red River of the South by Wednesday morning. Ahead of the
approaching cold front, increasing winds from the LLJ will move into
the region and persist throughout the day. LREF probabilities show a
70% to 90% chance of wind gusts greater than 30 mph and a 40% to 60%
chance of wind gusts greater than 35 mph. These probabilities,
coupled with BUFKIT momentum transfer forecast soundings, would
support a high-end SPS for strong winds or even a Wind Advisory for
Wednesday.

Along with the gusty wind potential, a severe weather potential
exists. The SPC has been highlighting these probabilities over the
last couple of days in their Day 4-8 severe weather outlooks. As
with the severe potential discussed previously, there is a risk for
strong to severe storms on Wednesday, but several factors are coming
into play. Specifically, forecast ongoing precipitation and
widespread cloud cover may limit instability. These two
environmental factors will be the strongest case against severe
storms. Additionally, the best kinematic forcing in the form of the
LLJ is progged to be in the Ohio Valley, displaced from the
thermodynamic instability. A third factor is that the southern
stream cut-off could rob much of the moisture advection and the
ability to build instability during the day Wednesday.
However, should clearing take place or atmospheric recovery occur, a
high-shear low-CAPE scenario could emerge, allowing strong to severe
storms to move across the Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon. The
latest SPC Day 3 SWO discussion highlights the possibility of not
destabilizing or potential destabilization leading to squall line
like storm mode; therefore, the area has been placed under a
Slight Risk. Nonetheless, showers and storms will be possible
through Wednesday, persisting into the early overnight hours. Once
instability wanes, thunderstorms will dissipate into rain
showers, which will continue into Thursday morning.

As colder air wraps around behind the cold front, temperatures will
start to fall. Snowflakes could begin to mix into the rain, leading
to a rain-snow mix from early Thursday morning through early
Thursday afternoon before showers taper off from northwest to
southeast. Behind the departing cold front, surface high pressure
will build into the region. Thursday CAA temperatures are progged to
be in the upper 40s to low 50s, but by Friday, they will warm back
into the upper 50s to mid 60s. This warming is courtesy of the
region being back in the warm sector ahead of a cold front progged
to move through the Great Lakes. Substantial dry air is in place,
and therefore PoP is nonexistent for this feature. High pressure
remains through the rest of the week, leading to dry weather and
above-average temperatures. The next chance for precipitation
appears to be Sunday.

The forecast period will be highlighted by a messy synoptic picture
featuring a trough diving into the region and a cut-off low working
across the Deep South. This setup will bring gusty winds, showers,
and storms, with the potential for strong to severe storms Wednesday
afternoon. A transition to snow is possible Thursday before high
pressure and warmer temperatures return for the remainder of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026

Low stratus and fog will lift and burn off late this morning
through midday. Sunny skies (VFR conditions) are expected after
16z or 17z with just occasional passing thin high clouds through
this evening. Cigs lower after 06z Tuesday as a system with
showers and thunderstorms approaches from the west and southwest,
with -SHRA and MVFR or lower conditions introduced to the TAFs
via primarily PROB30 groups for the western and southwestern
sites. Winds will be generally light and variable this morning but
become southwest at less than 10 kts this afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ068-079-
083>088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC