371
FXUS62 KJAX 090546
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
146 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf



- Areas of Dense Fog Possible Each Morning through Wednesday

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Tuesday afternoon

- Record High Temperatures Possible Today through Wednesday

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible on Thursday

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions Thursday Night through Friday
Morning

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Areas of locally dense fog are possible during the predawn hours
Today and Tuesday.

- A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to continue through at
least Tuesday at the northeast FL beaches.

Lingering showers will continue to push offshore this evening. Light
winds over the area during the overnight hours will allow for patchy
to areas of fog over inland locations, with some locally dense fog
closer to dawn, with lingering fog lifting a couple of hours after
dawn. Light southwesterly-southerly winds will be in place Today as
high pressure stretches in from the Atlantic. Limited chances of any
precipitation will be confined to interior SE GA during the late
afternoon to early evening hours. Above normal temperatures will
once again be felt Today as daytime highs this afternoon will in the
mid to upper 80s, with the warmest temperatures over north central
FL. By Tonight, overnight Lows will hover in the lower 60s area-
wide. Patchy to areas of Fog will again be possible over inland
locations during the overnight hours, particularly over NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Dense fog potential during the predawn and early morning hours,
especially over inland northeast FL Tuesday and Wednesday morning
- Near record warmth on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons at inland
locations

Tuesday, surface high pressure ridge axis extending across the FL
peninsula from Bermuda will begin to lift back northward into north
central FL through the day. Winds 8-12 mph from the west southwest
will become southwesterly inland and southerly near the coast before
Atlantic seabreeze moves onshore with southeasterly winds behind it.
Mid to upper level ridging builds northeastward from the southwest
Gulf waters over the area, creating more subsidence and limiting
afternoon convection to only isolated coverage of T`storms mainly
along the coast to US-17 corridors due to convergence along the
Atlantic seabreeze. Mostly sunny skies are expected with few to
scattered low level cumulus clouds and highs climbing into the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees away from the coast over NE FL and
the upper 80s for inland SE GA while the seabreeze cools the coast
limiting highs to only the upper 70s to low 80s.

Tuesday night, mostly clear skies and southerly flow with low to mid
60s dewpoints will allow for patchy fog to develop overnight along
with some potential for sea fog near the coast. Lows will be in the
low 60s inland to the mid 60s coast.

Wednesday, the surface high ridge axis will lift into NE FL with
southerly winds 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph. Ridging aloft will
strengthen from the Gulf, suppressing convection with mostly sunny
skies and record high temperatures likely away from the coast in
the low 90s between I-95 and I-75, upper 80s over the Suwannee
Valley and inland SE GA, and low 80s along the coast where the
afternoon Atlantic seabreeze will turn winds southeasterly off the
cooler waters.

Wednesday night, south to southwest winds will remain elevated
8-15 mph as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest.
Clouds will increase with fog not expected due to the increasing
flow from the southwest, through low stratus will move in from the
NE Gulf late overnight. Showers will spread into inland SE GA and
the Suwannee Valley after midnight as the cold front shifts closer.
Lows will be in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms area-wide on Thursday
- Slightly cooler temperatures Thursday night through Friday night

Thursday, a mid to upper level neutrally trough extending from the
Great Lakes into the TN valley will pivot east. A Compact shortwave
embedded at the base of the trough will move east along the Gulf
coast and support a organized line of showers with embedded storms,
some of which may be strong to severe. Increasing wind fields will
support a veering wind profile and 0-6km bulk shear values 40-45
knots. Cooling temperatures aloft will support some instability, but
the amount of low level cloud cover will be an important factor in
the strong to severe T`storm potential as the line moves through our
area. A wetting rainfall appears likely with expected totals between
a quarter inch to one inch from south to north, through heavier
showers and T`storms may bring localized higher totals up to 3-4
inches, which may present localized minor flooding concerns over low
lying and urban areas. Breezy SW winds will turn NW in the late
afternoon as the front passes through. Showers will end as the
frontal boundary sinks into north central FL Thursday night with
winds staying elevated from the north turning northeasterly by
Friday sunrise as high pressure builds quickly across the TN valley
east into the southern appalachians.

Friday, a weak wave of low pressure will develop along the frontal
boundary as it stalls near central FL. Isolated showers will shift
SW to NE over NE FL areas south of I-10 with NE winds becoming east
northeasterly as high pressure moves to the Outer Banks of NC.

This weekend, zonal flow aloft in the wake of another mid to upper
trough passing well to the north will briefly reinforce surface high
pressure over the central/southern appalachians on Saturday morning
before shifting east off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds will be
easterly and trend to southeasterly on Sunday as weak lift shifts
across the FL peninsula from the Gulf.

Temperatures will begin the period well above normal Thursday,
become near to slightly above normal Friday, then rise to above
normal this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions as lingering showers clear offshore. Near calm
winds continue through the predawn hours. Low stratus ceilings and
potentially dense fog during the overnight and predawn hours, with
IFR conditions likely for inland sites. South to southwesterly
surface winds will prevail at TAF sites through the daylight hours,
except southeasterly at the coastal terminals as the Atlantic sea
breeze begins to move inland around 16Z to 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...


Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward
across the Florida peninsula, creating a prevailing south to
southwesterly wind flow across our local waters through midweek.
Periods of dense fog will be possible each morning through midweek.

A stronger cold front will cross our local waters on Thursday,
accompanied by showers and possibly a few stronger thunderstorms.
Strong northwesterly winds in the wake of this frontal passage will
create Small Craft Advisory conditions on Thursday afternoon, with
these conditions continuing on Thursday night and Friday morning as
high pressure briefly builds over the Mid-Atlantic states. Winds
will quickly shift to northerly and then northeasterly on Thursday
night before becoming easterly with diminishing speeds on Friday
afternoon.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will
continue into midweek as easterly ocean swell of 9-10 seconds
continue. Strengthening southerly winds may combine with this swell
on Wednesday to create a high risk at the northeast FL beaches, with
at least a moderate risk forecast at the southeast GA beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersion Values Wednesday And Thursday

Drier conditions expected today as weak high pressure settles over
the NE Gulf and northern FL as a frontal boundary lifts slowly away
to the north with light westerly winds and an afternoon Atlantic
seabreeze pinned east of I-95 where winds will turn southeasterly at
the coast. Dispersions will be in the good range. Tuesday, high
pressure will extend from Bermuda into central FL from Bermuda with
southwesterly winds and a few showers and T`storms in the afternoon
as the Atlantic seabreeze moves onshore towards US-17 with winds
becoming southeasterly behind it. Wednesday, winds will be a bit
breezier from the south on Wednesday a cold front begin to approach
the region from the northwest, but no showers expected. Showers and
thunderstorms will move through the area Thursday afternoon with
potential for isolated strong to severe T`storms. Friday into
Saturday, high pressure will build in from the north as the front
exits to the south with drier conditions and MIN RH values falling
to around 30 percent by Saturday.

Areas of high dispersions are expected Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons due to increasing transport winds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of locally dense fog will be
possible during the predawn and early morning hours each day through
Wednesday morning, especially over south and western areas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 9:  KJAX: 88/2024
          KCRG: 83/2012
          KGNV: 89/1907
          KAMG: 86/1974

March 10: KJAX: 91/1974
          KCRG: 86/2019
          KGNV: 90/1974
          KAMG: 88/1974

March 11: KJAX: 89/1967
          KCRG: 86/2019
          KGNV: 88/1974
          KAMG: 86/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 9:  KJAX: 69/2024
          KCRG: 64/1980
          KGNV: 69/2024
          KAMG: 63/1973

March 10: KJAX: 65/1922
          KCRG: 64/1980
          KGNV: 66/1909
          KAMG: 62/1992

March 11: KJAX: 66/1880
          KCRG: 67/2015
          KGNV: 64/1973
          KAMG: 70/1975

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  62  86  62 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  77  62  78  62 /  10  10  20   0
JAX  87  62  89  62 /  10  10  20   0
SGJ  83  62  84  63 /  10  10  20   0
GNV  88  60  90  62 /  10   0  10   0
OCF  88  61  90  62 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$