406
FXUS63 KICT 091237
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
737 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm temperatures today with a few record highs possibly
being broken, see climate section below

- There is potential for Severe Weather and Heavy Rainfall to
occur late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night

- Cooler and windy on Wednesday followed by warmer temperatures
  and strong southwest winds on Thursday, thus causing the fire
  danger risk to become elevated(possible critical levels)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Unseasonably warm temperatures for today could break a few record
highs across the region. Meanwhile current satellite vapor imagery
shows a healthy upper level weather system near the Baja region
beginning it`s eastward shift, and very strong upper level jet
energy pushing into the northwestern states. Both features will
migrate eastward today/tonight and become phased over the central
CONUS for Tuesday/Tuesday night. This phasing process will cause the
upper jetstream to amplify over the Great Lakes region with a
southward extension of the upper jet right entrance quadrant over
eastern Kansas. The response will be richer low level moisture being
drawn northward for today into Tuesday. This will set the stage for
possible severe weather and heavy rainfall late Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night. Models still showing variability with the
surface front placement on Tuesday which will be the key focus
area for possible severe weather and heavy rainfall at night.
The warm sector looks to become decently unstable with favorable
wind shear aloft to support severe weather, however shear
vector orientation is expected to be parallel to initiating
surface boundary. This will cause a linear storm mode to occur
along the frontal boundary which looks to shorten and reduce
the time window for severe weather, especially with storm
interference increasing as storms become more numerous in close
proximity to each other due to 850mb jet boosting the moisture
transport focus along the frontal boundary. A transitioning
weather mode to heavy rainfall with some training of activity
will become more favorable at night.

North winds will ramp up late Tuesday night in the wake of the cold
front passage, and remain strong and gusty through the day on
Wednesday along with cooler air overspreading the area. The strong
cold front/north winds will shove the richer moisture well south of
Kansas deep into the Gulf of Mexico region. As a result, a dry
weather pattern should prevail for Thursday through the upcoming
weekend with a upper level northwest flow regime being locked in.
This will prohibit the better quality low-level moisture from
recovering anytime soon. Temperatures will warm back up quickly for
Thursday with westerly downslope effects. Deterministic GFS/ECMWF
models show southwest winds becoming strong and gusty during the day
with deeper mixing tapping into 850mb wind speeds of 35-50kts aloft.
Model ensembles indicate a 30-60% chance of 850mb wind speeds
surpassing 40kts during the late morning/afternoon hours on
Thursday. Models show a fleet-footed upper level wave moving through
the northwest flow regime aloft across the northern plains into the
Great Lakes region Thursday night. This will push a frontal boundary
south across Kansas for Friday but with no moisture around it will
come through dry. Next system to sprint through the upper northwest
flow pattern looks to occur Saturday night into Sunday. Model
ensemble trends are showing a more pronounced system and push of
colder air spreading southward across the central plains for
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Low level wind shear will affect southern Kansas early this
morning with VFR conditions expected for all sites over the next
24hrs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Combination of warmer temperatures and modest southwest winds will
affect locations east of the Kansas turnpike with Very High fire
danger risk today. The fire weather could become elevated again on
Wednesday with strong northwest winds, however this risk could be
lowered by Tuesday night`s numerous showers/storm soaking ground
soils. Thursday remains the day of highest fire weather concern this
week with expected strong southwest winds/drier air. This will cause
GFDI values to rise into the Very High and potential Extreme fire
danger levels during the afternoon hours on Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Record Highs for today...

Site  Record High   Year    Tdy`s Forecast High
ICT        81       1986            78
SLN        80       1986            81
CNU        79       1899            81
RSL        78       1986            82


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ
CLIMATE...CDJ