165
FXUS64 KHUN 091441
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
941 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 941 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

 - There is a low to medium risk of strong to severe
   thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the TN Valley.

 - There is a low to medium risk of severe thunderstorms on
   Wednesday.

 - Cooler conditions return Thursday, but temperatures should warm
   as we go into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 941 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Current surface observations and satellite imagery show a
widespread area of very low clouds and dense fog encompassing much
of the TN Valley and Mid Mississippi Valley. As such, a Dense Fog
Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM for the whole area.
Through the morning, while fog will lift, broken to overcast cloud
cover looks to remain for much of the day ahead of an approaching
mid level short wave. At the surface, a warm front looks to push
north through Alabama this morning. This, coupled with SSW surface
flow induced from ridging to our SE, will allow dew points to
surge into the mid 60s and temps to rise into the mid 70s. This
will place us well within the open warm sector, directing our
attention to severe weather chances this afternoon.

Storms can already be seen early this morning developing in
eastern Oklahoma moving into Arkansas, supported by the mid level
short wave. Through the day, these storms are forecast to
continue to grow upscale into an organized MCS. Recent HIRES
guidance brings this cluster of storms across our area from west
to east this afternoon from about 1 PM to 9 PM. The warm and moist
boundary layer will support the development of just over 1000
J/KG of CAPE ahead of storm arrival supporting a risk for some
strong to severe storms. Most mesoscale parameters are sufficient
to favorable for severe weather with 15-20 KTS of low level shear
paired with 35-45 KTS of 0-6 KM shear supporting updraft
organization and maintenance. With mid level lapse rates over 7
C/KM, winds of 60 MPH and hail near 1" will be the main threats.
LCLs look to lower as the storms move through. While not a primary
threat, should some funky storm merging occur, a tornado cannot
be ruled out.

While the storm chances will greatly decrease after the sun sets,
low rain chances and overcast conditions look to remain most of
the night. As such, temps won`t be able to cool off much and will
only drop into the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 941 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Behind the passage of the mid level short wave, we will remain in
SW flow maintaining our warm and moist airmass through Wednesday.
Dew points will remain in the 60s, temps in the mid 70s, and
prolonged cloudy conditions. Low rain chances will remain on
Tuesday before dry conditions arrive overnight into Wednesday.

Our attention in the short term will be directed to our next
severe weather chance late Wednesday. High rain and storm chances
will be supported by the arrival of a cut off low moving across
the Gulf Coast. Uncertainty remains regarding the progression of
the cut off low as it currently resides near Baja. Recent model
trends have continued to slow the low down, bringing it slightly
out of phase with the northern trough. This may limit the overall
synoptic support for severe weather. Even so, models maintain
around 500 J/KG of MUCAPE in the TN Valley as the low and
associated front moves through, which is more than enough to
support widespread thunderstorms. The orientation of front
supports a linear storm mode making damaging winds the most
apparent threat. We will have to continue to evaluate model
trends as Wednesday draws closer to define additional details
regarding timing and secondary hazards.

Beyond the passage of the front, strong WNW flow will develop
through Thursday, briefly disrupting our warm and moist airmass.
Though Thursday, dew points will drop back into the 30s with
temps refined to the 60s, despite sunny skies. Fortunately these
conditions will be short lived as we quickly rebound back to the
70s as we head into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Models continue to show the strong upper low proceeding east along
the Gulf coast states after being pulled east by an amplified
longwave trough axis extending northeast into southeastern Canada
on late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A weak surface
low is shown in most guidance a bit east of this upper low. Very
deep and strong forcing is show with this system. The strength of
this forcing is fueled by strong coupled upper level jets. PWATS
climb to over 1 inch by the early evening hours. Not an overly
saturated sounding, but given strong shear and forcing, heavy
rainfall and thunderstorm activity is expected if surface based
instability is realized.

Models have been fairly consistent that at least some SBCAPE will
be in place during the late afternoon hours. How much has been
more variable in ensemble guidance. Expect high rain and
thunderstorm chances (70 to 90%) to develop during the evening
hours. Either way, there will likely be at least a few hundred to
around 500 J/KG in place during the afternoon hours before
decreasing but remaining just enough instability to be surface
based into the late evening hours potentially. With shear 0-6 km
shear values between 40 and 70 knots, organized strong to severe
storms look very possible, unless instability doesn`t materialize.
Damaging winds looks like the biggest threat. Helicity doesn`t
look strong until after the front pushes into the area behind the
convection. The most widespread and heaviest storms/rainfall looks
to be more over central and southern Alabama given the track of
the surface low in most models and overall ensemble guidance.
Still could get between 1 and 1.5 inches south of the Tennessee
River given the current track. If the surface low trends further
north in future guidance, a more widespread severe and heavy
rainfall threat could materialize.

Rainfall and thunderstorm activity will likely last through the
overnight hours into early Thursday morning before exiting into
Georgia and the Carolinas by noon on Thursday. Colder air will
quickly move into the area behind the front as temperature drop into
the upper 30s to lower 40s. It will be much colder on Thursday with
highs only reaching the 55 to 60 degree range despite abundant
sunshine (20 to 25 degree difference from the day before). So, it
should be a bit of a shock to the system after the recent warmth. A
warmup will build back into the area as weak northwest flow becomes
more zonal over the CONUS. It will still be cool though Friday night
with lows dropping into the 40 to 45 degree range mainly.

Highs with sunny skies on Saturday should climb back into the lower
to mid 70s. Continue southerly to southwesterly low level flow will
help bring more moisture back into the area. This should help lows
warm into the upper 40s to around 55 degrees. A warming trend will
continue through next weekend, with no rainfall expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Dense fog will persist until 14Z before it lifts, improving CIGS
and VIS conditions. Showers and thunderstorms have the potential
to become severe this afternoon into this evening and will create
MVFR (or possibly lower) VIS, CIGS and erratic winds when passing
over the terminals. Some showers and storms will linger overnight
so included a PROB30 to accommodate that.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for ALZ001>010-
     016.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...JMS