Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
354 FXUS64 KHGX 062326 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 526 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased shower & thunderstorm chances Saturday and Saturday night...gradually tapering down on Sunday. - Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several days. - Another round of storms possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Continued warm and muggy conditions overnight with lows struggling to fall below 70F. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase as we progress thru the day Saturday and Saturday night as a front and associated precip sag into the region. Guidance is generally pointing toward a linear line of storms moving into northern parts of the region during the afternoon and continuing toward the coast in the evening/overnight hours. There is a slight chance (level 2 out of 5) that some of the storm segments could become strong to severe...with winds and hail the primary threats. Overall, most areas should see 0.5-1.5" rainfall totals, though we will need to watch the potential for *localized* higher swaths (of say 2-4") should a favored jet couplet materialize aloft as a few deterministic models suggest. In that instance, we`d look for potential regenerating/training cells in the Saturday evening/night time period. This front should theoretically stall inland as the synoptic pattern loses support for a southward "push" with time. However, run-to-run model trends have generally been southward and currently depicts stalling between I-10 and the coast. Throw in the mesoscale and rain cooled air upstream, I wouldn`t be totally surprised if it gets a bit further south. On Sunday, rain chances and intensity should gradually wane thru the morning. I lowered POPs a bit and actually tinkered with going even lower...esp in the afternoon. But let`s take a look at where this boundary ends up first, since there will probably still be some lingering moisture and upper impulses to deal with. The next mid-upper trof kicks out of Baja Monday and tracks across Texas Tuesday afternoon (west) thru Wed night (east). This system should provide our next shot of tstms late Tues night and Wednesday. Drier, breezier, and more seasonable wx will fill in behind this system. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 526 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Broadly speaking, tonight/tomorrow looks very similar to last night and today, with south winds hanging on through the night rather than calming, and CIGs down to IFR/low MVFR. Specific timing of the degradation will be tricky as always, and may need amendments to keep on track through the night. Keep sea fog impact mainly limited to GLS, with some modest imposition on LBX as well. Then gradual improvement through the morning, with most managing to return to low VFR for the afternoon albeit with a smattering of showers and perhaps even an isolated -TSRA. Starting out with PROB30 -SHRA mentions for now. At the very end of the forecast, continue to haggle with specifics on line of storms moving into the area. These sketched out hours are largely for planning purposes, and will need to continue to be refined in future cycles. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 General: A long fetch of 10-20kt southeast winds will remain stretched from our coastal waters well out into the Gulf through the weekend along with 3 to 5 foot seas. Sea fog: fog will remain an intermittent issue at times, primarily in the Gulf waters off of Galveston, and maybe extreme southerly parts of Galveston Bay in the nighttime and early morning hours. Confidence in the specifics is low and visibilites will likely fluctuate with slightly stronger llvl winds tonight, and some rainfall Saturday night. That said, suspect we`ll continue with hit/miss fog issues until the next front fully clears things out Wed. Precip: shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday night into Sunday morning along a front that will be approaching the coast. Cannot rule out some localized gusts >30kt in some of the stronger cells (Saturday night). The front is expected to stall just inland, but storm outflows may give it a nudge into the bays and/or nearshore Gulf. Precip coverage/intensity should wane Sunday and the front should lift back northward on Monday. We`ll be keeping an eye out for our next weather system Tuesday night- Wednesday. Spring Break begins for much of the area this weekend. Just a gentle reminder that there are almost always rip currents at the beach. Swim near a lifeguard and away from rocks, jetties, and piers where rip currents are typically strongest. Also avoid swimming on the easter/western tips of Galveston Island. 47 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Rivers are currently in good shape, and should mostly stay that way. But we`ll keep an eye on things with the incoming wx. We could see a few instances of rises to action to minor flood stage near, or upstream, of where any heavier rainfall occurs in a short time period. The latest river ensemble guidance suggests the Trinity River basin might be the place to monitor. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 71 84 58 71 / 40 90 80 40 Houston (IAH) 73 85 68 76 / 20 80 90 60 Galveston (GLS) 70 76 67 73 / 10 60 80 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...47