380
FXUS63 KGLD 171804
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1204 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions possible this afternoon from
  the Tri Border area into northeast Colorado.

- Temperatures warming to near and slightly above normal through
  early next week, warmest in Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Pleasant weather is in store for the Tri-State area over the next
few days as we remain in an upper-level ridging pattern. Expect
mostly sunny skies and temperatures a bit warmer than usual for this
time of year. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s
through Monday.

Main forecast highlights for today are windy conditions throughout
the Tri-State area and potential fire weather conditions in
northeast Colorado. Expect mostly southerly winds with gusts from 25
to 35 mph possible. Sustained winds for today max out around 25 mph.
Strongest winds will be along and west of the Colorado/Kansas
border. Afternoon relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the
mid teens for northwest county warning area (CWA). Sunny skies along
with southerly downsloping winds have the potential to warm and dry
conditions out further. Fuels across eastern Colorado continue to
remain dry and Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are in the
30s to 40s. Any fires that start are likely to spread rapidly and
show erratic behavior.

A few hours of critical fire weather this afternoon are likely for
Kit Carson and Yuma counties. Confidence in widespread or longer
duration critical fire weather conditions is not high enough to
warrant any fire weather products at this time. Fire weather
concerns diminish after sundown as winds start to subside and RH
values begin to recover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

The overall synoptic pattern in this forecast period features two
different setups. Guidance continues to outline a ridging pattern
continuing through Wednesday; exhibiting high-pressure, dry air, and
southwesterly flow aloft. A duo of shortwave troughs are expected to
propagate through the system, the first of which early Tuesday and
the second one Wednesday. Weak low pressure is expected to develop
at the surface as well with these features. However, no fronts or
precip is anticipated. Thursday through Friday is when ensemble
guidance has begun to display a longwave trough developing and
moving across the southwestern CONUS. Said trough could become
negatively tilted and eject a jet streak through the County Warning
Area (CWA). This would likely boost surface winds for Friday. As
this deepening system makes its way across the western US, a strong
surface low is likely to develop in the northern Rockies, moving
eastward into the northern Plains late Thursday. Simultaneously, a
cold front likely moves through the CWA late Friday evening.

Model guidance is quite confident on Probability of Precipitation
(PoPs) presenting less than 10% initially, which means very low
chance of rainfall through Wednesday. Elevated PoP chances first
present around the evening timeframe Thursday. 20-35% is forecast
right now but this could very well change as models get a better
grasp of the synoptic setup. Heading into Friday, Rainfall chances
have seen a bit of a boost from recent long-term forecasts,
particularity later on in the evening when the frontal passage is
underway. 25-35% PoPs early in the day should see an uptick to 30-
50% through the evening hours. Dewpoints should range around the mid
to upper 50s so there will likely be adequate moisture to work with.
At this time low confidence exists for any of this activity becoming
convective, given the projected low CAPE/low bulk shear environment
but will have to be monitored as we head into next week.

A warming trend, with respect to high and low temperatures, should
persist across the CWA and last through pre-frontal passage Friday.
Tuesday high temps consistently low/mid 70s should increase a bit to
upper 70s/low 80s on Wednesday with subsidence, via the ridge,
dominating the region. Highs are anticipated to peak on Thursday in
the low/mid 80s then settle around the upper 70s to low 80s range
mid-afternoon before the cold front arrives. Overnight low temps are
expected to originally be cooler Tuesday/Wednesday mornings(40s-low
50s) then become milder for Thursday/Friday with consistent 50s
across the entire CWA.

Fire weather will be monitored leading up to this four-day period.
Relative humidity (RH) values in the 25-45% range are forecasted
each day through Friday during peak heating late afternoon.
Wednesday will be the driest day as RH could dip into the 20s across
a good chunk of the CWA at or west of US-385. It will be quite humid
each night as temperatures cool to the dew point. Moving onto
surface winds, Thursday and Friday are likely to be the windiest
days during this period and could see stronger 25-35 mph winds,
gusting 40-45 mph in eastern Colorado. Gusts up to 30 mph are
generally possible everywhere else on Thursday and Friday. At this
moment in time, no areas of critical fire weather are forecasted.
Nonetheless, elevated fire weather is still possible, especially
areas west of the Colorado/Kansas state line where lower RH matches
up with stronger winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the TAF period. Conditions will be sunny and breezy. Winds will
generally be out of the south with gusts around 25 knots possible.
Winds will calm down overnight. For KMCK, low-level wind shear is
possible this afternoon through around midnight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rhoades
LONG TERM...024/AMP
AVIATION...Rhoades