644
FXUS63 KGLD 091113
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
513 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record to record highs today with temperatures in the
  upper 70s to low 80s. Localized fire weather conditions are
  possible today as well due to the warm temperatures.

- Showers and perhaps an isolated dry thunderstorm during the
  afternoon with a transition to a rain/snow mix Tuesday night
  is forecast. Little to no accumulation is currently forecast.

- Brief mid week cool down before warm temperatures and fire
  weather concerns return Thursday and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Subtle northwesterly flow remains in place across the region.
Overnight southwest wind are forecasts to slowly shift to the west.
Due to this am leaning towards most if not all of the area
remaining above freezing due to the downslope flow; however
winds speeds are forecast to remain around 7-10 knots at this
time but if any period of lighter winds can occur then
temperatures would quickly plummet due to the radiational
cooling as clear skies are forecast to be in place through the
night.

Monday, a broad surface low is forecast to develop from roughly the
Black Hills down through southeast Colorado. Southwesterly winds are
forecast to continue as well with sustained winds of 10-15 mph.
Similar to the past few days some localized gusts up to 25 mph
are forecast to occur during the late afternoon hours as a 700mb
jet develops. Briefly critical fire weather conditions are
again forecast for most of the area as humidity due to the warm
temperatures are forecast to fall into the low teens. Confidence
in at least 1 hour of critical conditions across the area is
around 80-90% but confidence in 3+ hours is only 20-30%. Due to
the marginal nature of the winds and low confidence we can get
the 3 or more hours for Red Flag criteria am opting to hold off
on any fire weather issuances at this time. As mentioned above
temperatures are forecast to be warm across all of the area with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s currently forecast. A few
record highs may be in jeopardy.

Monday night into Tuesday a cold front is forecast to move into the
area from  the north. The NAM is hinting at some stratus/fog/drizzle
potential along the front. With temperatures forecast to be above
freezing no impacts are currently anticipated with the front.
Mid to late morning Tuesday a mid level vorticity maxima is
forecast to lift through the area leading to some elevated
showers or isolated thunderstorms as most guidance suggests a
few hundred j/kg of MUCAPE should be present as some weak
moisture advection occurs. The tricky part to this forecast is
if the cold front comes crashing through which the ECMWF-AI
continues to suggest which could shunt any of this activity off
to the south and east. Another low pressure system is forecast
to develop across north central Colorado which looks to lead to
essentially a warm front across western portions of the forecast
area which will lead to a tricky high temperature forecast with
a large gradient from west to east. If the NAM is on to
something with the cloud cover and drizzle then temperatures
across the board may be to warm by around 10 degrees. Locally
critical fire weather conditions may be possible as well
Tuesday across eastern Colorado but will be highly dependent on
how far east the warm front can get. Tuesday night, another
surge of cold air advection is forecast to occur as a shortwave
across the northern Plains shunts the cooler airmass into the
region. Additional showers and storms during the evening are
forecast to form along some 700mb frontogenesis bands and
additional forcing from the low pressure system across north
central Colorado. 00Z HRRR forecast soundings support the
potential for some dry microbursts with this activity currently
forecast across Cheyenne (CO), Wallace, Greeley, Sherman and Kit
Carson counties as the 0-3km lapse rate is greater than the dry
adiabatic lapse rates and very weak EBWD (Effective Bulk Wind
Difference) is around 10 knots. Assuming this does occur then
can`t rule out some blowing dust with any microbursts along with
dry lighting potential as well. Confidence in any of these
hazards is currently less than 10% but is something that needs
to be monitored. As the cold air advection continues a rain/snow
or a changeover to snow is forecast to occur especially for
northern and western portions of the area after 06Z Wednesday.
Currently not anticipating much in the way of hazards but some
slick roads due to overnight refreeze potential can not be ruled
out as overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the
low 20s to low 30s across the area. With the surge of cold air
advection Tuesday night winds are forecast to become breezy to
gusty with wind gusts of 35-45 mph currently anticipated as
mixing heights remain around 1100 feet AGL.

Wednesday, is currently forecast to be a cooler day across the area
in wake of the cold front from Tuesday. A much drier air mass is
forecast to advect into the area as dewpoints in the low to mid
teens move into the forecast area. High temperatures for the day
have trended cooler with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Breezy
to gusty winds are forecast to continue as well especially into
the early afternoon hours as pressure rises from the cold front
stabilizes and winds relax during the afternoon hours. How
strong winds get is the difficult portion of the forecast as a
strong 700mb jet of 40-50 knots remains aloft but not overly
confidence in mixing heights being deep enough to mix those
winds to the surface. Elevated fire weather conditions are
forecast, but if the deeper mixing can occur which could also
mix down some lower dew points then some critical conditions
could not occur. Confidence has fallen some in multiple hours of
critical fire weather conditions as winds are forecast to
weaken as the afternoon goes on along with the cooler trend
being seen as well with guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 102 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The end of the week continues to be forecast to be dominated by
northwest flow aloft with an embedded trough or two. For Thursday-
Saturday, this is forecast to keep dry and warm air over the area
and allow afternoon relative humidity to drop into the low to mid
teens. With this, there is concerns for critical fire weather
conditions, though which day remains a little uncertain. Ensembles
show a sizable range of when waves move through and bring a system
that could increase wind gusts above 25 mph. The current favored
days are Thursday and Saturday, but as alluded to this could change
depending on how these waves push through. Either way, it will
probably not be a good time to burn. The continued dry and warm
conditions could also lead to some blowing dust concerns if winds
got high enough, though the overall chance of this looks to be 20%
or less. Highs are forecast to generally reach the 70s with lows in
the 30s. No precipitation is currently forecast.

For the weekend trough, guidance is suggesting that this one may be
a bit more vertically orientated. As such, temperatures are forecast
to either be much cooler or much warmer depending on how far west
the trough digs. Not much to report now given the aforementioned
uncertainty, but there will likely be some change from the highs in
the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 511 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period with clear to mostly clear skies forecast to continue.
Winds are forecast to start from the west near the surface, but
begin to vary around 18Z before becoming more southerly as
another surface low develops north of the area. There could be a
few gusts around 20 kts this afternoon. Otherwise, speeds should
be around 10 kts through most of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast for today
for most if not all of the area. Very low humidity values in
the low teens to even upper single digits are forecast as well.
The limiting factor to any fire weather concerns is the wind.
Sustained winds around 15-20 mph are forecast although we could
see an hour or two where wind gusts around 25 mph occur during
the mid to late afternoon, similar to what occurred on Sunday.
Some guidance is hinting at a stronger 850mb jet developing
across Cheyenne (CO), Wallace, Sherman, Kit Carson and perhaps
into western Thomas county which may be the favorite area for
critical conditions with confidence around 80-90% that at least
one will occur but confidence in 3 or more hours needed for the
issuance of a Red Flag Warning is only around 20-30%. Another
potential area that could an hour or two of critical conditions
is up across northern portions of Dundy, Hitchcock and Red
Willow counties where they are forecast to be in closer
proximity to a bit of a stronger jet. The reason for not issuing
a Red Flag Warning is due to the limited spatial coverage that
these winds are forecast to see.

Tuesday, locally critical fire weather conditions are again
forecast mainly across Kit Carson, Cheyenne (CO), Greeley and
Wallace counties. This will be dependent on how far east a warm
front can survive as the rest of the area will be in wake of a
wind shift during the morning before winds become more easterly.
Even if the warm front can make it through the counties above
winds are again the biggest question mark as gusts may only get
to 25 mph. There is however an increasing signal for high based
showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon hours with
perhaps a dry lightning potential along with gusty and erratic
winds with any downburst. PWATS are forecast to be under 0.5
inches with an inverted v sounding. Any location that a storm
could effect should remain under a tenth of an inch of rain.
Overall potential for a wetting rain is around 20%.

Wednesday, is a tricky day when it comes to fire weather concerns.
Cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s are currently
forecast along with a very dry air mass with dew points in the low
to mid teens advecting into the area. There is signal that
temperatures could be warmer however in some guidance but am
not buying it as I feel that cold air advection will still be
ongoing for most if not all of the day in wake of a Tuesday
night cold front. If temperatures were to warm into the mid 50s
then critical fire weather conditions could occur across the
area. Guidance has actually been trending a little cooler with
the high temperatures for Wednesday so concern for critical
conditions has gone down some. Will continue to monitor if the
temperature trend does begin to rise again.

Irregardless with very dry 10 hour fuels around 10-12% according to
the Kansas Mesonet the concern remains for fire starts and the
potential for any fires to get out of control remains high.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Record high temperatures are in jeopardy today March the 9th.

Goodland: Record high 83 in 1989.... current forecast 81.

McCook: Record high 85 in 1936.... current forecast 83.

Hill City: Record high 84 in 1989... current forecast 83.

Burlington: Record high 82 in 1989.... current forecast 79.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg
CLIMATE...Trigg