181
FXUS65 KGJT 091129
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
529 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy afternoon winds and above average temperatures will  occur
  each day for the coming work week.

- A passing wave may bring a few snow showers to the northern mountains
  and San Juans. No accumulations expected.

- Anomalously warm temperatures close to 20 degrees above normal
  are expected by the end of the week, with many locations
  seeing near-record breaking warmth.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Little change to the going forecast as a closed low well to our
south drifts eastward through the period. The location of this
feature will also keep west through southwesterly flow across the
region, allowing warm air advection to continue Monday and Tuesday.
High temperatures will jump to anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees above
usual mid March values for both days. To our north, the jet stream
will start sagging southward and models have been very consistent
with some gusty surface winds mixing down to the surface as a
result. The northern valleys will be closest to the jet and will see
the gustier winds (25 to 35 mph) but most of our higher terrain and
remaining valleys will see some higher gusts Monday afternoon. Look
for similar conditions Tuesday with a slight uptick in those gusty
winds. In fact, look for gusty afternoon winds through the week. A
weak wave will move through during the day Tuesday and may manage to
squeeze a few snow showers over the northern mountains and San
Juans. No appreciable accumulation expected. Through the period,
most areas will see partly cloudy skies except for the northern
mountains and valleys. The location of the jet will keep partly to
mostly cloudy skies in the forecast there.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A weak clipper will glance the northern counties on Wednesday,
allowing some light cloud cover Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures
will take a 5-10 degree dip thanks to some cold air that will
struggle to make it south of the Colorado River. Warm air returns
Thursday as high pressure builds into the Southwest off the Pacific.
This will drive temperatures up into the 70s and 80s for our lower
elevations Thursday and Friday, likely holding there into the
weekend. The stubborn frontal boundary/jet max draped across the
country to our north starts dipping south late week. This is
expected to tighten the gradient and introduce gusty winds to the
region Thursday and onward. The warmer, drier pattern starts to
favor critical fire weather late week. However, elevated RH values
with the strongest winds across northwest Colorado seem to take that
threat off the table. Non-zero precipitation chances return Sunday
to the Uintas and northern mountains of Colorado. QPF is rather
weak, but the chance at some moisture is worth noting. Dry
conditions persist, though, for the remaining portions of the CWA.
Moisture starved basins in southwest Colorado and southeast Utah
will continue to flirt with critical fire weather under this
persistent warm and dry pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the TAF period. Gusts
of 15-25 kts are expected to occur this afternoon at many
terminals. Uncertainty remains on if these gusts will develop at
KASE, KGJT, and KCNY though, and thus gusts have been kept out
of these TAF`s. Otherwise, look for scattered to broken mid-
level clouds to move over much of the region over the course of
the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT