Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
865 FXUS64 KFWD 091002 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 502 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will arrive late Tuesday with an upper low and the next cold front. Some severe storms will be possible. - Additional storms are possible on Wednesday, a few of which may produce small hail. - Dry and seasonable weather is expected Thursday, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 126 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 A split flow pattern is currently in place across the CONUS, with zonal to weakly cyclonic flow in the northern stream, and the southern stream divided between a ridge over the Gulf and an upper low off the Baja California coast. A weak disturbance initiated near the northeast flank of the low will propagate eastward across the CWA overnight into Monday, which may generate isolated convection between now and daybreak. The best rain chances will be east of I-35 where there will have been just enough time for sufficient gulf moisture return to take place. Any storms will likely remain elevated in nature and sub-severe, though some small hail cannot be ruled out. The severe threat will likely remain off to our east where a more favorable environment will exist, which will be during the day Monday when precipitation will have already moved out of our forecast area. Will keep some low POPs across the east Texas counties during the day Monday, however, in case a few rogue storms try to back-build before moving off to the east. Weak ridging in the wake of the disturbance will otherwise provide warm weather for Monday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. It will also be a touch breezy and humid by afternoon as the Baja upper low starts to advance east, the surface pressure gradient narrows and mid 60s dewpoints spread north through the area, but otherwise an overall nice Monday can be expected. Warm and breezy conditions will continue Monday night into Tuesday as a narrow pressure gradient persists between a developing cold front in the Plains and a surface ridge centered over Florida. Humid conditions and a northward surge of low clouds will keep Tuesday morning lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 The Baja upper low will accelerate across northern Mexico, reaching West Texas during the day Tuesday. Synoptic scale ascent will coincide with an increase in instability Tuesday late morning and afternoon, which may lead to isolated thunderstorm development. Any storm which develops would have a good chance of becoming severe (with all modes of severe weather possible) based on the unstable and highly sheared environment in place. The mitigating factor will once again be a warm layer or "cap" above the surface, which would start around 850 mb before rising to around 700 mb by mid afternoon. Updrafts would need to overcome the cap to access this energy, so POPs will be kept in the chance to slight chance range through mid afternoon. More explosive and widespread development will take place across the Big Country late Tuesday afternoon along the dryline. Discrete cells which may move east of the dryline would have the potential to produce both large hail and damaging winds as they enter areas near and west of Highway 281. Southwest to northeast oriented shear vectors essentially at all layers from surface to 1 km up to surface to 6 km will likely lead to rapid cell mergers, quickly transitioning storms into a linear mode near the western border of our forecast area around or shortly after sunset. Damaging winds should become the primary threat as this line pushes east to near the I-35 corridor by midnight. A rapid drop in instability and a re-strengthening of the cap should create a weakening trend as storms push across and east of I-35 after midnight. A few line segments with damaging winds may still occur, but the overall severe threat will decrease as storms continue eastward towards East Texas overnight into Wednesday morning. The progressive nature of the system should keep the flood threat low, but training storms with heavy rain will inevitably cause flooding somewhere on a localized scale. The upper low itself will pass overhead on Wednesday, which will maintain the potential for scattered showers and isolated storms through Wednesday afternoon. Severe weather is unlikely, but the cold core aloft and resulting steep lapse rates may lead to small hail in a few of these storms. That being said, there is a brief window Wednesday afternoon across our East Texas and eastern Central Texas counties, when the upper low overhead will coincide with the passing of a cold front. Some storms with damaging winds and large hail may occur late Wednesday afternoon before all activity exits to the east and south Wednesday evening. Dry and seasonably cool weather will follow behind the front Wednesday night and Thursday, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend. Another cold front will push through around a week from today, but should pass through precipitation-free. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 An expansive swath of IFR extending along and south of a line from Atlantic City, NJ to Midland, TX, enveloped KACT a few hours ago, and just recently began affecting eastern and southern portions of the DFW Metroplex. This is lower than the MVFR we were initially expecting last night, and will likely hang around until early afternoon before lifting and scattering with boundary layer mixing. Because the Metroplex is still on the edge of the IFR deck, will handle it with prevailing MVFR and a TEMPO group from 13-16Z for IFR. The current expectation is that the dense fog and associated LIFR in the AUS/SAT areas will remain south of KACT, but will need to monitor METAR and satellite trends across Central TX over the next few hours. Once conditions improve 17-19Z, VFR should persist through the afternoon and evening hours. Another IFR/MVFR deck should arrive Tuesday morning around 09Z at KACT and 12Z in the DFW area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 67 80 63 / 10 10 50 90 Waco 82 67 80 62 / 10 10 40 80 Paris 78 66 78 62 / 40 20 50 90 Denton 84 65 78 58 / 10 10 60 90 McKinney 81 67 78 62 / 10 10 50 90 Dallas 83 68 81 64 / 10 10 50 90 Terrell 82 67 80 62 / 20 10 50 80 Corsicana 84 69 83 66 / 10 10 40 80 Temple 83 67 81 62 / 0 10 40 80 Mineral Wells 86 65 81 57 / 0 10 60 90 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30/MB LONG TERM....30/MB AVIATION...30/MB