107
FXUS65 KFGZ 091134
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
434 AM MST Mon Mar 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and relatively warm weather for much of
Monday, with a chance of mainly rain showers Monday night into early
Tuesday. Dry conditions and even warmer weather then develops from
Wednesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A robust cut off low south of San Diego will begin to
move east across northern Mexico today, as energy in the northern
stream dips far enough south to scour it out. The low is closest to
our CWA Monday night and moves east of the region by late Tuesday
morning.

When the low ejects, a brief period of well above normal PW values
move into southern Arizona, potentially as far north as I-40. This
will raise our chances for (mainly) rain showers Monday night and
early Tuesday, before much drier air moves quickly back into the
picture for the remainder of next week.

Areas south of the I-40 corridor and primarily southeast of
Flagstaff could see as much as 0.50" of rainfall Monday night, as
well as a few rumbles of thunder. However, many areas to the north
and west will remain dry.

Strong ridging redevelops after Tuesday, with a return to dry
weather and well above normal temperatures for the rest of the week
and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 09/12Z through Tuesday 10/12Z...Primarily
VFR through the period. SE of a KFLG-KPAN line, areas MVFR with
SHRA/CIGS and ISOLD -TSRA AFT 01Z-03Z Tuesday. Sfc winds becmg
S-SW10-20kts AFT 17Z-19Z Monday, light Monday night.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 10/12Z through Thursday 12/12Z...Areas MVFR with
SHRA/CIGS and ISOLD -TSRA SE of a KPAN-KSJN line through 18Z-20Z
Tuesday, then VFR. All other areas and times VFR. Daytime sfc winds
W15-25kts Tuesday, otherwise winds are generally light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Mainly rain shower chances
begin moving in from the south by late Monday afternoon, peaking
Monday night and then decreasing and shifting east on Tuesday. Best
chance for showers will be southeast of Flagstaff and south of I-40.
Daytime temperatures remain above normal, but will dip on Tuesday.
Winds south through southwest 10 to 15 mph Monday and westerly 15 to
25 mph Tuesday, higher speeds over the northern zones for Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Warm and dry conditions return. Winds
northerly 5 to 15 mph Wednesday and Thursday, shifting southwest
through west on Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff