851
FXUS63 KFGF 091125
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
625 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow is possible this afternoon through the early
  overnight hours, mainly south of Interstate 94.

- Pattern remains active with multiple chances for accumulating
  snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Northwest winds prevail this morning with temperatures in the
upper 20s to middle 30s. Colder air is slowly working into the
Devils Lake Basin as a cold front continues to move to the
southeast. A few wind gusts to near 30 mph are possible as the
morning progresses.

UPDATE
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

MU CAPE around 250 J/kg helped showers and thunderstorms become
fairly stout for early March this evening in the northern Red
River Valley and northwestern MN. A bit of pea to half inch hail
and some wind gusts to 50 mph produced, but on a downward trend
as the better instability moves off to the east. Temps have
started dropping in northeastern ND behind the cold front, but
still mostly in the low 30s and much of the snow precipitation
is still well to our north in Canada. At this point, not
expecting any impacts on the cold side of the system until
tomorrow night.

After tonights shortwave, another vort/jet max comes into the
Northern Plains Monday night. There are signs of some strong
frontogenetical forcing in southern ND, but pretty fast moving.
Probabilities for anything over an inch are around 30 percent,
so not too much for impacts. The active pattern continues into
the upcoming week, but precip tracks are all over the place and
hard to gauge exactly how much our CWA will see.

UPDATE
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Increased cloud cover a bit as there has been more mid and high
clouds even south of the main frontal boundary just north of the
international border. Even with clouds in and out, southwest
winds and warm air advection have boosted readings into the
lower 60s in southeastern ND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

...Synopsis...

A surface low exists once more over southern Saskatchewan this
afternoon with an attached warm front just east of Bismarck at
this point in time. An additional temperature gradient from
differential snow cover exists over the Devils Lake Basin down
through the central Red River Valley. Aloft, low-level warm air
advection is contributing to cloud coverage and light rain along
the international border and will continue to push eastward
along with the main surface low. Warmer temperatures should
spread further eastward as this occurs, bringing highs generally
into the upper 50s to low 60s south of I-94 with generally
40s-50s north.

As the low continues to push east-southeast, a main sweeping
cold front will dive southward bringing colder temperatures
behind it this evening. It is likely that scattered showers will
be associated with this. QPF looks to be fairly light so the
impacts will remain limited. As we progress into tomorrow,
expect relatively cooler temperatures to replace todays nice
day.

...EXTENDED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...

The period will remain active with highly amplified flow across
the CONUS. We remain situated in the northern periphery of a
very large cutoff low with 500mb flow approaching 100 knots.
This is contributing to our frequent changes in temperature and
frequent chances for light precipitation. We are stuck in this
pattern because of a low over the Baja of California currently
rotating on its own. There is high confidence that this will
eventually kick out northeastward, but until then expect more of
these quick moving events and oscillations in temperature.

The first chance for precipitation after today will be Tuesday
as strong frontogenesis works eastward embedded within the flow.
Cyclonic vorticity advection isn`t particularly strong, but the
strong mesoscale forcing should create some unorganized banding
of snowfall across our south. Due to the mesoscale nature of
this, there is high uncertainty in the location of this, but it
does appear like accumulating snow will be likely somewhere in
the southern half of our area. Moisture content is fairly light
so the reasonable worst case scenario would be areas receiving
up to 4 inches of snow, but the most likely range is between 0
and 3 inches of snowfall. If synoptic forcing does improve,
however, then these totals could go up. Regardless of this, it
is not a guarantee that areas will receive snow given the
mesoscale banding nature as stated above, so stay tuned for
further updates.

We finally start to see the cutoff low over the southwest kick
out, which will force ridging to develop to our west. This
brings with it the chance for a clipper system that looks to
deepen as it progresses eastward. This brings the threat for
accumulating snow with the warm air advection region ahead of
the main low and gusty winds on the backside, but any blowing
snow impacts are going to have to come from either falling snow
(low predictability) or snow on the ground which should be
extremely crusted over so this is very unlikely to cause any
issues as well. As such, the probability for warning type
impacts is very low with only a low chance for advisory impacts,
which should mainly arise from accumulating snow.

Finally, there is a strong ensemble agreement for a system next
weekend but with very low predictability in impacts based on
model spread in location. Right now, stay tuned as this one
would have the best shot for higher moisture content based on
the upper flow pattern, which does create the potential for
additional accumulating snow impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

IFR to MVFR conditions prevail at KTVF and KBJI this morning,
with VFR conditions elsewhere. Scattered to broken stratus is
the main culprit as we continue through the morning hours,
especially in northwest Minnesota. Low level wind shear will
remain a concern through around midday. A cold front will
continue to the southeast as the day progresses, with a few wind
gusts out of the northwest to near 25 knots. These gusts will
diminish this afternoon, then start to shift towards the north
and northeast late in the TAF period. There is a chance for snow
late this afternoon through the early overnight period, mainly
south of KFAR; however, there are some scenarios that could
bring -SN into the vicinity after around 00Z. Sites further
north could see isolated flurries during the same time frame.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/JR
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Lynch