482
FXUS63 KDMX 091140
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
640 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions today with highs in the 70s south.

- Showers and storms possible in the southeast Tuesday evening with
  a Slight Risk for severe weather.

- Breezy and dry conditions Wednesday leading to some fire
  weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Some gusts were able to punch through the inversion this morning
with sporadic gusts to around 30mph found at times across the
area. A weak boundary can be seen upstream with a thin pocket of
stratus accompanying it. Stratus should succumb to the dry air
over Iowa today, but the boundary will stall over Iowa. South of
the boundary, have gone slightly above guidance for highs due
to the dryness, with highs in the 70s. North of the boundary,
highs again face challenges from clouds, but should still reach
the 60s this afternoon. The lack of winds will mitigate fire
weather concerns, but conditions will dry out fuels for later.

Similar to yesterday`s discussion regarding Tuesday, guidance
has trended towards a solution of a delayed phase for the
southern and northern upper air disturbances. Confidence in
surface-based storms coming into the southeast part of the CWA
is decreasing, namely because the warm front may not traverse
this far north. Still, some elevated thunderstorms could leak
north of the boundary as MUCAPE values on the order of 600 J/kg
exist where the low-level theta-e push threatens the hold of the
cap. This leaves at least a threat for hail on the table.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Strong cold air advection behind the front brings temperatures
down 15-20 degrees on Wednesday. Winds will be breezy out of the
northwest with the cold air advection, subsidence, and enhanced
pressure gradient across the area. Model soundings indicate
35-40+ kts at the top of the mixed layer, translating down to
30+ mph gusts possible at times on Wednesday.

The extended remains active with a shortwave passing north of the
area on Thursday into Friday. Initially, return southerly flow ahead
of the shortwave will allow temperatures to warm several degrees on
Thursday. Expect breezy southwesterly flow as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of the approaching wave. Soundings are alos fairly
dry with deep mixing and gusts of 40+ kts through the top of the
mixed layer. Even surface winds remain strong at 20-25+ kts. With
dry air in place head of the front, will need to monitor for fire
weather concerns. Later Thursday precipitation skims northern into
eastern Iowa, though the main axis will be outside of the area. This
lifts east by Friday with the cold front sagging south across the
area through the day.

Another shortwave may influence the area by this weekend. Models are
in agreement with precipitation spreading across the area on
Saturday on the north side of a weak surface low across the central
US. An incoming shortwave deepens across the Rockies and enhances
the existing low, increasing precipitation into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. A front will come
into the state through the next six hours, creating northeast
winds behind it. The front is poised to sit right over KDSM,
hence the long-term vrb wind group in the extended. There may
be winds in the 10kt range.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jimenez
LONG TERM...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Jimenez