705
FXUS63 KDDC 091022
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
522 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 60 to 80% probability of high temperatures greater than 80 degrees
will lead to near record highs today

- A storm system will lead to strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday
night

- A brief mid week cooldown and then the return of mild
  temperatures to end the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Late night synopsis shows mainly zonal flow with the polar jet along
the northern CONUS and a cut off slow off the coast of Baja
California.  A trough with 1001 mb surface low is located in eastern
Colorado with 850 mb winds out of the southwest continuing to
provide WAA to much of southwest Kansas.

Record high for Dodge City is 80, 81 at Medicine Lodge, and 86 in
Garden City for today.  We should have decent warming due to plenty
of sunshine.  The main forecast challenge is the shortwave will move
east and push the surface low into south central Kansas which will
switch the winds to the north and bring slightly cooler air through
mid day.  By peak heating we should see the winds turn back to the
south and this should get the temperatures to near 80.  NBM
probability have a 60-80% chance of southwest Kansas reaching at
least 80 degrees so we have high confidence of a record high run
this afternoon.  Fire weather should be mitigated a bit as winds
will be slightly lighter but elevated fire concerns could return to
the far southwest with RH values dipping to 10 percent and wind
gusts 15-20 mph.

Tuesday the subtropical jet starts to increase the wind speed aloft
and the upper low over Baja will start to move into the southern
plains.  Ahead of the system we should have southwest winds in the
boundary layer and a developing surface low in southeast Colorado as
a 700 mb shortwave enters after 18Z.  Elsewhere a trough in the
northern plains with the polar jet will start to bring a cold front
that should reach northwest Kansas by the late afternoon.  This
setup will be the focus for thunderstorms to develop by late
afternoon and evening mainly along and east of the surface low along
the warm front.  In the areas that get the warm air we should see
highs around 80 but in the vicinity of the cold front with easterly
winds this could keep temperatures down in the mid 60s.  The NAM is
the most aggressive model with storms as the 700 mb shortwave will
basically move along the warm front and quick upscale growth of
storms will develop across southwest Kansas after 21Z.  The RRFS
model shows similar development however more in an area between
Dodge City and Wichita where the CAPE values are forecast to be the
highest.  With the frontal boundary and increasing 850 mb winds we
should see good low level shear combined with increasing moisture
especially in our southeast zones that thunderstorms will have a
severe weather threat.  With forecast 0-6 km bulk shear values at 50-
60 kts and low level SRH values increasing to 200 m/s this would
support supercell development and hail 2 inches or greater and
downbursts are possible and a tornadic threat can`t be ruled out.
The best confidence in storms will be mainly along and east of the
highway 283 corridor when NBM probability of 40-60% of 0.1 inch of
QPF exist.  CWASP values which take into account CAPE, shear, and
storm relative helicity show values greater than 65 (which would be
higher confidence of severe weather) for areas from Ashland to St.
John on east having over a 50% probability of reaching 65.

After Tuesday a cold front will sweep through southwest Kansas and
Wednesday highs will reflect that as there is a 80-95% probability
that highs will be less than 60 degrees.  Long term ensemble trends
keep us mainly dry with the return of warmer temperatures as the
upper air pattern will return to a ridge over the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight with mostly clear
skies. Winds will start out from the northwest this morning,
shifting to a southerly direction by this afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Hovorka_42