846
FXUS61 KCTP 091113
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
713 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* SPC Day 3 (Wednesday) Slight Risk area includes much of
  central PA south of I-80 and west of the Susq River

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather continues through Tuesday with temperatures
approaching record warmth Tuesday & Wednesday.

2) A strong cold front accompanying a potent upper trough will
bring showers and thunderstorms Wed followed by rain/snow
showers, gusty winds, and sharply colder temperatures into
Thursday.

3) Settling into a cooler pattern for the end of the week and
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather continues through Tuesday with
temperatures approaching record warmth Tuesday & Wednesday.

Building high pressure keeps cloud-free skies in place today,
allowing for temperatures to rise well into the 60s. Accompanying
the increasing temperatures will be a glancing shot of
extremely dry air above the boundary layer. Sufficiently deep
mixing should support warm temperatures and low dewpoints
this afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values will drop into
the upper 20s to low 30s and could even exhibit some downside
potential for sub-20% RHs in the south central mountains.
Although RH that low does tend to bring the conditional risk of
wildfire spread this time of year, wind gusts of 15-25 mph
will be marginal (strongest across the north and west), and
recent rainfall should help to mitigate the risk. Best to remind
mindful of the dry air and wind gusts if one is considering
burning on Monday.

As heights continue to build over the eastern U.S. Tue-Wed,
temps in central PA may challenge daily records as they surge
+20-30 degrees above the historical average. With highs in the
upper 60s-70s and lows in the 50s (Tue night), it will feel more
like an average day in mid May than mid March.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front accompanying a potent upper
trough will bring showers and thunderstorms Wed followed by
rain/snow showers, gusty winds, and sharply colder temperatures
into Thursday.

A cold front will sweep through Wednesday night into Thursday,
as an upper trough approaches the region. The SPC Day 3
(Wednesday) Slight Risk area includes much of central PA south
of I-80 and west of the Susq River. There is still considerable
uncertainty regarding the extent to which destabilization can
occur on Wed, especially with quite a bit of cloud cover in the
forecast. Nonetheless, with winds of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km
of the atmosphere, it would`nt take much to bring some damaging
winds down the ground.

As the base of the trough and associated surface cold
front cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the
cold front may result in any lingering postfrontal precip
changing over to snow Wed night into Thu. Temperatures ahead of
the front will remain in the 60s to near 70F Wednesday night
and will drop into the 25-45F range by Thursday morning. Gusty
winds will also accompany the system, with gusty southwest winds
ahead of it and brisk northwest winds behind it. A strong
pressure gradient may result in the need for a Wind Advisory
Thursday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Settling into a seasonably cooler pattern for
the end of the week and weekend.

Periodic shortwaves in the prevailing upper level pattern will
lead to chances for precipitation every few days from this
weekend into early next week. At this point, the storm track
favors the primary corridor of precipitation passing north of
the area. With overnight lows within a few degrees of the
freezing mark forecasted, precipitation type will be largely
dependent on what time of day it moves through. But as of this
time, no significant systems or appreciable precipitation are
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly clear skies were found as the sun came up this morning,
outside of some borderline MVFR cigs (2-3 kft) that have
developed over portions of the Laurel Highlands.

The clouds over the Laurels should scatter out today, leaving
predominantly VFR conds areawide. A SW breeze will develop, with
gusts of 15-20 kts possible by aftn across the higher terrain.

Clouds will increase late tonight across western PA, and BFD
could see cigs dip to MVFR by daybreak on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tue...Cigs becoming MVFR over NW PA; otherwise predominantly
VFR. Scattered showers possible N/W later in the day.

Wed-Wed night...Restrictions likely in more numerous showers and
some thunder.

Thu-Fri...Windy and colder. Scattered rain and snow showers
with restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Colbert
DISCUSSION...Colbert/Martin
AVIATION...Evanego