769
FXUS61 KCLE 091400
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1000 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased forecast high temperatures for this late afternoon and
decreased surface dew points through this early evening based
on latest trends in observations and model guidance. Expect
abundant sunshine, relatively-deep diurnal convective mixing of
the boundary layer amidst late afternoon 850 mb temperatures
near 8C to 11C, low-level WAA, and a fairly tight SE`erly MSLP
gradient on the synoptic-scale to allow late afternoon highs to
reach the mid 60`s to lower 70`s in most of our CWA. Near-record
warm highs are now forecast in parts of our CWA today, especially
roughly along and west of I-71. The deeper diurnal convective
mixing of the boundary layer will tap into drier air just aloft
through this late afternoon, which will result in somewhat lower
surface dew points and RH values than forecast previously.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm, breezy conditions, and periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall as well as a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain may briefly transition over
to snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

2) A clipper system will track east across the Great Lakes on
Friday which may bring a chance for rain and snow to the local
area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper level trough will track from the Central Plains into
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region midweek. A warm front
will lift across the area on Tuesday. A surface developing low
pressure system will track from the Midwest and across the
southern Great Lakes region.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with with mid-
level frontogenesis will be the first round convection to impact
the region Tuesday evening into overnight. Instability will be
moderately unstable with deep layer shear to support some hail
potential, perhaps some damaging wind gusts as well. Our area
will be in the warm sector on Wednesday. Pre-frontal
thunderstorms are expected during the day Wednesday. The wind
field will be very strong to support organized severe
convection. The question that remains is how much instablilty
will be available to materialize due to morning showers and
considerable cloud cover. Confidence in thunderstorms and
subsequent severe weather is more likely the farther south and
east you go within our forecast area.

Heavy rainfall is likely during the midweek time frame. The
average QPF will be around 1.25-1.5" Tuesday night through
Wednesday evening. High-end localized amounts up to 2" could be
possible. Localized nuisance flooding is possible. The cold
front will move through early Wednesday evening. The rain
showers mad end with some wet snowflakes Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A rather strong clipper system will track quickly eastward
through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. This end of the week
system may bring a round of light rain and snow to the local
area with strong gusty winds. Although some uncertainty exists
in the strength of the system, confidence is increasing for
potential wind gusts to reach at least 40 mph or higher.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with deterioration to MVFR
ceilings towards the end of the TAF period, associated with low
ceilings. Some drizzle and/or light rain shower activity may
accompany the lower ceilings. Potential also exists for lower
ceilings (IFR), particularly along and west of the I-71
corridor, and may need to be included in future TAF packages.

Winds are generally out of the south to southwest early
this morning, 10 to 12 knots. Winds will increase to 15 to 18
knots later this morning and afternoon with periodic gusts of 25
to 28 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
night into Wednesday followed by rain briefly transitioning to
snow Wednesday night into Thursday. Non-VFR may return in
scattered rain/snow showers on Friday combined with gusty
southwest winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly quiet marine conditions will persist through Tuesday with
generally offshore flow around 10 to 15 knots. Will continue to
monitor the potential for some organized thunderstorms Tuesday night
into Wednesday for strong wind and hail potential, particularly
across the western basin of Lake Erie. Otherwise, southwest winds
will increase to around 20 knots Wednesday afternoon, shifting
towards the northwest and briefly increasing to 20 to 25 knots
Wednesday night behind a cold front. The next period of concern
across the region will be on Friday as a strong clipper system moves
east through the Great Lakes, ushering in south to southwest winds
of 25 to 30 knots across Lake Erie. Winds may briefly touch Gale at
times Friday morning and afternoon and will continue to be
monitored.

Above average temperatures and elevated winds will result in
continued shifting and decay of ice across Lake Erie through mid-
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures are forecast to approach records today and Tuesday,
March 10th. Here are the record warm high temperatures at area climate
sites for March 9th and 10th.

Date    Toledo      Mansfield    Cleveland    Akron       Youngstown   Erie
03-09   68(2021)    71(2016)     73(1878)     73(2016)    73(2016)     74(2000)
03-10   72(2021)    72(1973)     72(1973)     73(1973)    69(2021)     72(2021)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77/Jaszka
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn