395
FXUS63 KBIS 091144
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
644 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow will return to southern North Dakota today,
  with low chances for light snow elsewhere. Snowfall totals
  around 1 to 2 inches are expected along and south of
  Interstate 94, with locally higher amount possible if banded
  snow develops.

- Cooler and near normal temperatures through mid week. After a
  brief warmup Thursday, cooler and perhaps below normal
  temperatures expected this weekend.

- Windy conditions, with chances for rain and snow, may return
  Thursday.

- Medium chances of accumulating snow remain for the upcoming
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Limited updates needed this morning. Bands of light snow are
starting to form in Montana and still forecast to move into
North Dakota later today. Meanwhile low clouds along a secondary
boundary are starting to push into northern North Dakota, and
may produce a few flurries or light snow. Overall the forecast
remains on track with little updates needed at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A series of weak fronts will push across the state today and
bring areas of mainly light snow. The higher chances for
accumulating snow still look to be found along and south of
Interstate 94 today into the evening hours. Forecast snowfall in
these areas still remains around 1 to 2 inches. HREF stamps have
some higher amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated 6 inch
amounts, although there still remains low probability for these
heavier bands of snow to occur. Forcing wise, there does look
to be at least some brief areas of enhance frontogenesis, steep
lapse rates, and a favorable jet stream location. However,
latest deterministic model runs starting to shift these better
banded snow features south. Thus will maintain higher pops in
these southern areas, yet still message the 1 to 2 inch snowfall
being the more likely amounts today. Northern areas have less of
a chance for snow, although a secondary cold front could push
across the north this morning into the afternoon bringing at
least a slight chance for snow. Temperatures behind this front
will cool quite a bit today, with highs forecast in the 20s and
30s, with some lower 40s south. Breezy northwest winds will also
diminish this morning, and become an east to southeast wind
later today. Today`s snow looks to diminish tonight, although
cloudy skies with a few flurries may remain through the night.
Look for lows mainly in the 20s tonight. A broad trough is then
expected to move across the state on Tuesday. Chances for light
snow may return, mainly in the south, as a result while
temperatures remain cooler yet near normal. Broad ridging could
then diminish these snow chances Tuesday night, with lingering
cloud cover leaving low temperatures in the teens and 20s. This
ridge then moves through Wednesday, bringing mainly dry
conditions and perhaps some slightly warmer temperatures in the
40s. Southwest flow aloft could bring in some dry air, lower
afternoon humidity values in the 20s and 30s for some western
areas and bringing some breezy westerly winds. With highs in the
40s for Wednesday, the fire weather threat should remain low.
Mild and dry air then filters in Wednesday night, with lows in
the 20s.

A quick moving yet potentially potent clipper system could
still push across the state on Thursday through Thursday night.
This this system could come strong northwest winds and chances
for rain and snow. NBM backed off on the winds slightly for
Thursday. GFS still showing these strong winds, with the ECMWF
shifting the low further south. Although ECMWF EFI still hint
strong winds are possible with some shift of tails showing up in
the southwest. Thus blended in some NBM90th for winds to
maintain the messaging of strong wind potential. The track of
this low will also greatly determine precipitation location and
types. NBM now has likely PoPs in the middle of these two
tracks, across much of North Dakota. Warmer temperatures with
this system should limit accumulating snow as highs on Thursday
are forecast in the 40s to lower 50s. If a more southerly track
to the low happens, then perhaps cooler temperatures are
possible as indicated by some bigger temperatures spreads in the
NBM. The NBM also has 10 to 40% chance of at least an inch or
more of snow with this system, but is also likely temperature
dependent. For now will favor rain during the day on Thursday,
with snow chances in the morning and at night, given the warmer
forecast currently in the NBM. Cooler temperatures and lingering
breezy winds could then settle in Thursday night with lows in
the teens at 20s along with some lingering chances for light
snow.

Friday through the upcoming weekend, clusters starting to come
together that a broad surface low could bring widespread snow to
the state. Uncertainty remains on how far south a high in Canada
can move which would impact the location of the higher snowfall
amounts. There may also be some timing differences for start
time of snow. Right now NBM indicating Friday through at least
Saturday night could see chances for accumulating snow. The NBM
48 hour probabilities for 4 inches of snow during this time
period are 40 to 60% across much of the CWA with a 10 to 40%
chance of at least 6 inches of snow. Something to monitor for
the upcoming weekend. Depending on the location of the low there
could be some breezy winds with this system as well.
Temperatures could go on a cooling trend through the weekend,
with highs Friday in the 20s and 30s to the teens and 20s for
highs on Sunday. Lows Sunday morning could even dip into the
single digits and teens across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will be found across the
forecast area today and through tonight. Light snow could also
return today, especially to southern portions of the state
reinforcing MVFR conditions and perhaps bringing some brief IFR
conditions. Snow then diminishes this evening, although MVFR
ceilings may linger for some sites. Northerly winds will become
easterly today, southerly tonight, and westerly later tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin