215
FXUS61 KBGM 091025
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
625 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes made with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will quiet weather through Tuesday with warm
temperatures. Hydro concerns decrease, but some areas will need
to be monitored due to snow melt.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for more
minor flooding Wednesday into Thursday.

3) Conditions turn colder for the end of the week, supporting
the return of wintry precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will keep conditions dry through at least Tuesday.
Warm return southwesterly flow will lead to high temperatures
climbing into the 60s to near 70 degrees today and upper 60s to
low 70s on Tuesday. Winds will also be slightly breezy today as
stronger flow aloft mixes down.

River and stream rises are expected to peak today or tonight due
to the snowmelt. However, there remains quite a bit of snowpack
in the Tug Hill Region, so additional issue may pop up in the
coming days. Also, there is still some snowpack over the
Catskills and Upper Delaware Basin that will continue to erode.
At this time, there are no additional river points expected to
reach flood stage, however, these areas will need to be watched
over the next couple of days for any sudden changes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Spotty rain showers will be possible Tuesday night as a warm front
lifts north of the region. Shower chances will increase on Wednesday
as an associated low pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes
and into the Northeast. There is some weak elevated instability
forecast just ahead of the cold front on Wednesday evening and
this could support some embedded thunderstorms. Due to already
high river flows across the region, any additional rainfall
Wednesday through Wednesday night may cause additional minor
flooding in some areas.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

A cold front pushes through late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, with strong cold air advection directly behind the
front on northwest flow. Lake enhanced snow should develop
Thursday, but snowfall amounts at this time look light, with
generally 1 to 3 inches across portions of central NY.
Temperatures will remain cool for the end of the week and into
next weekend. There are several fast moving waves or clipper
systems that cold impact the region Friday through Monday.

The track of these systems will determine what precipitation
types are observed and how far south precipitation will reach.
A more southern track would favor widespread precipitation and
mainly snow and thus a more northern track would favor more
rain or mixed precipitation.

For now, due to the uncertainty, WPCs forecast for these
systems is with NBM guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure holds through the entire TAF period with VFR
conditions expected.

LLWS at RME this morning and then LLWS tonight at RME, SYR, ITH
and ELM.

Outlook:

Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday...Rain expected with MVFR to IFR ceilings possible.

Thursday...Becoming cooler with rain showers and associated
restrictions possible. Some wet snow can possibly mix in in at
the northern terminals as temperatures fall.

Friday...A clipper system can lead to the chance of additional
rain/snow showers and potential restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...ES/MPK