097
FXUS61 KBGM 090032
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
832 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change to previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm and dry through tomorrow afternoon ahead of a front
that moves in towards the evening bringing showers and
thunderstorms, some of which could contain gusty winds.

2) Generally dry benign weather returns towards the end of this
week, with temperatures bumping back up over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Upper level ridging is building in today ahead of an
approaching trough moving along the US/Canada border.
Temperatures tonight into tomorrow will be a little above
average with dew points gradually rising as precipitable water
values rise to near 2 inches tomorrow afternoon into the
overnight hours. An area of low pressure moving through Southern
Canada will swing a cold front into the region in the evening
to early overnight hours.

Ahead of this front, wind shear increases with bulk shear
around 50 knots. The uncertainty will be CAPE as post sunset,
the boundary layer will stabilize quickly. Confidence has
increased that the western Finger Lakes may see the front arrive
towards sunset where there could still be some surface
instability for stronger winds to mix down. SPC has highlighted
this area with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Dry air
advecting in behind the thunderstorms could help with downdraft
production from the dry air entrainment into the core of the
storms. If the downdrafts can be strong enough, the could punch
into the stable boundary layer even a few hours after sunset so
SPC`s marginal risk has been extended into CNY and parts of the
Twin Tiers. Confidence is low that the severe risk will make it
much east of the Finger Lakes though given that Most Unstable
CAPE quickly falls below 500 even in some of the more aggressive
models. Thunderstorms may continue thanks to forced lift along
the front but their ability to produce damaging winds at the
surface will diminish quickly after dark.

Flash flood risk is also lower in this event despite the 2 inch
PWATs as the front is pretty progressive and the shear vectors
dont line up well for persistent training. Rainfall rates will
still be high with any thunderstorm so localized urban flooding
is possible if thunderstorms move through a larger urban area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The front is likely east of the region by Thursday morning with
drier NW flow. With the front sweeping most moisture well off
to the southeast and the NW flow continuing through the weekend,
cooler and dry weather is expected through this weekend. Zonal
flow aloft will prevent any significant cool downs or warm ups
and with the lack of moisture in place, any shortwaves moving
through will just cloud things up briefly rather than produce
much precipitation. Sunday into Sunday night has the best chance
at some isolated to scattered rain showers as models are
hinting at a stronger shortwave and cold front moving in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tonight, mainly VFR conditions expected for the terminals. Some
of the higher resolution guidance does indicate the potential
for some fog around the ELM area. Confidence is on the lower
side though with this potential as mid-level clouds start to
fill-in toward daybreak. Fog that does form will be in the MVFR
to IFR range for VSBYs.

Wednesday, any morning fog that may develop in/near ELM should
dissipate a few hours after sunrise. Mainly VFR flight
conditions are expected, but mid-level clouds do continue to
move into the region through the day. Later in the day, cloud
bases are expected to lower to around 3kft, bringing the
potential for MVFR CIGs. The best potential for this, along with
some showers and rumbles of thunder will be for the
northwestern portions of the area. An incoming pre-frontal
trough will bring the potential for showers and at least a few
thunderstorms starting toward the late afternoon/evening hours
on Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Potential cold front passage
with wind shift and showers. Highest chance for showers later
Wednesday through Thursday morning.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
building into the region. Morning fog will be possible.

Sunday...Restriction possible as frontal system approaches the
region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MDP
AVIATION...SJW