188
FXUS63 KAPX 091004
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
604 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 30
  mph, especially this morning.

- Above normal temperatures today, with temperatures reaching
  the upper 50s to mid 60s across northern Lower.

- Next system set to impact northern MI midweek, bringing
  chances for mixed precipitation, accumulating snow, and
  colder temperatures to close out the week.

- Another system could bring accumulating snow to end the work
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Mild early spring conditions remain in place across northern
Michigan early this week as a warm and increasingly well-mixed
airmass spreads across the region. A surface low tracking across
southern Canada will keep pressure gradients fairly tight
today, allowing gusty southwest winds to persist with occasional
gusts around 30 mph (higher gusts to 35 mph possible for areas
closer to Lake MI). Aside from a few light rain showers early
this morning across eastern Upper and portions of the Tip of the
Mitt, most areas should remain largely dry. The bigger story
today continues to be the well advertised warmth. Persistent
southwest flow, strong mixing, and increasing sunshine should
allow temperatures to climb well above normal. Highs should
reach well into the 50s to mid 60s across northern Lower, while
eastern Upper likely remains somewhat cooler in the upper 40s to
possibly low 50s. A few daily record highs could be challenged
across northern Lower if temperatures reach their full potential
this afternoon.

Mild condtions continue through much of Tuesday as the airmass
slowly begins to cool. Surface high pressure sliding east across
Ontario will allow a weak cold front to sag south toward the
region, gradually introducing east to northeast winds north of
the boundary. Aloft, flow becomes increasingly zonal while
additional moisture begins spreading toward the region ahead of
the next developing system. Much of Tuesday should remain fairly
quiet, though precipitation chances will begin increasing later
in the day and especially Tuesday night as colder air starts
pressing southward near the surface.

Forecast confidence decreases somewhat heading into Tuesday
night and Wednesday as the next system emerges from the Plains
and tracks toward the Lower Great Lakes. As colder air filters
in at the surface on strengthening northeast winds, warmer air
aloft may linger for a time as southwest flow continues above
the boundary layer. This setup supports the potential for mixed
precipitation developing later Tuesday night across northern
Lower, including freezing rain and sleet, while eastern Upper
may transition to mostly snow more quickly as colder air deepens
there first. Probabilities for at least 0.10" of ice
accumulation have trended slightly downward this forecast cycle,
but remain notable at around 45% across northern Lower, with
the highest chances favoring northeast Lower. Meanwhile,
probabilities for snowfall of 3" or more remain fairly low
overall, mainly focused across eastern Upper where chances sit
in the lower 40% range through Wednesday. As the low tracks
toward southeast MI Wednesday, colder air should gradually wrap
into the region, allowing precipitation CWA wide to trend toward
all snow with time.

Behind this system, colder air returns to the region with a
more typical mid-March airmass settling in for the latter half
of the week. High temperatures will trend cooler, likely
settling back into the 30s for many areas as a cooler airmass
becomes established. The pattern remains active as additional
upper-level disturbances move through the pattern. Periodic snow
showers will remain possible late in the week, and guidance
continues to hint at another system approaching toward the end
of the work week into next weekend. As colder air becomes more
firmly established, probabilities for snowfall for 3" or more
begin to increase through the weekend with this next potential
system. While details remain uncertain at this range, the
overall pattern continues to favor cooler temperatures and
continued active weather heading into mid-March.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Low-level wind shear of 40-50 kts is expected across most of
northern Michigan through this morning as southwest winds quickly
increase in speed above the surface. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
in store through tonight. Cloud cover will increase late this
evening and tonight as bases also lower, but are expected to remain
above 3kft at TAF sites through 12Z Tuesday. Southwest winds gusting
to 20-30 kts this morning will eventually turn to northwest by the
end of the day, weakening and turning further to northeast winds
overnight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...DJC