804
FXAK67 PAJK 151400
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
600 AM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- The anticipated front has reached SE AK bringing rain and
  increased winds through Friday.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the southern panhandle with rain
  rates as high as 0.25 to 0.3 inches per hour possible.

- Strong wind gust will continue into Friday morning. Wind
  advisories are in effect for the central and southern panhandle.



&&

.SHORT TERM.../ through Saturday / A tropically moisture enhance
moisture plum with the current weather front headed north to the
Northeast  gulf coast. Gusty winds in the 40 to 50 mph range for
several communities and observations in know to be windier spots
or enhanced locations may have to to 60 mph or higher this
morning. the lead feature this morning landfalling in the north,
while closer trailing wave with move more over teh central
panhandle. Satellite Rainfall estimates morning is suggesting
rates about 0.2 inches to 0.30 inches an hour, but may see some
higher rate when terrain effects start assisting that. This
moisture stream has a tropical connection with former Typhoon
moisture being absorbed into the plume and will likely bring 2 to
3.5 inches of rain into the northern panhandle Thursday and 2 to 4
inches for the southern panhandle region. The plume will also
raise the lower atmosphere temperature slightly, and any Thursday
morning the snow levels around 2500 to 3000 feet are likely to be
wiped out by late afternoon as the Snow levels rise closer to
5000 ft. Expect stream to rise int he north this morning as as
well as over the south, but with a thirds system likely to push
into the southern panhandle better chance for minor issues, so
thus the Flood Watch of the southern panhandle area.




.LONG TERM...The start of the long term looks to remain active with the
low pressure continuing to persist. This will allow for clouds and
precipitation to continue to impact the area. This low eventually
dissipates while a stronger low looks to pass south of the area and
high pressure builds in Canada. Behind this low, high pressure is
expected to move in to the Gulf behind this stronger low which may
allow for us to see a break Sunday evening into Monday morning.
Headed into the start of next week, ensemble guidance wants to bring
another low into the western Gulf. The main difference between EPS
and GEFS guidance is where this low comes from. EPS wants to bring a
low up from the south on Monday and have it merge with a low that is
expected to persist in the Bering Sea before moving towards the Cook
Inlet area Tuesday. This low then tracks into Prince William Sound
Tuesday evening into Wednesday. GEFS guidance wants to bring the low
from the Bering Sea on Monday and track it across the Alaska
Peninsula and Cook Inlet before moving remaining offshore near
Prince William Sound.


&&

.AVIATION.../Through 12z Friday/...Conditions have diminished early
this morning as a front has reached the area bringing times of heavy
rain and strong winds. A few areas are holding on the VFR
conditions, but ceilings are continuing to lower as the front moves
across the panhandle. Widespread MVFR ceilings will soon be seen
across the area, with ceilings AoB 3000 ft. This front will also
drop visibilities to around 4 to 6 SM, with locations seeing
visibilities falling to around 2 SM during periods of heavy rain.
These lower visibilities have already occurred near the Ketchikan
airport as rain rates increased. Along with heavy rain, strong winds
and LLWS quickly approached the area with this front. Wind gusts
around 30 to 40 kts are likely to continue over the southern
panhandle through the TAF period. The central panhandle will also
see these strong gusts, lasting into Thursday evening. Similarly
LLWS will continue with wind speeds around 35 to 45 kts at 2000 ft.

Behind the initial front, a brief break in heavy rainfall may be
possible for the southern panhandle before second surge of moisture
and winds move into the panhandle early Friday morning. This could
allow for a few locations to see a brief period of VFR ceilings
before this disturbance move across the area. That being said, most
locations are likely to remain MVFR during that time.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside(Inner Channels): Winds have picked up to the 25 to 35 kt
range with strongest winds over CLarence strait, Chatham Strait
and out Icy Strait and Cross Sound. Bumped Cross Sound to Gale
force this morning with east gales. The next tailing low to move
to the southern panhandle, looks to mover inland near the Northern
Prince of Wales island then over south central panhandle to
souther Stephen Passage as it falls part. Think that will will be
burst of gales friday Morning of the Clarence Strait are, and as
teh remain of the filling low heads north, I tried to include a
wind push as it moves north, I tried to add to the grid to about
the Juneau are. Will be able to fine the winds when they pick up.



Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Gale force winds Late
Wednesday evening over the gulf waters moving into the coastal
regions of the panhandle. 25 to 35 kt winds have pushed into and
then out of parts of the inner channels. the old low is West
southwest of Kodiak island just south of the Alaska Peninsula.
This low is expected slowly weaken then then move towards the by
the weekend. Winds over the look to be less that 25 kt as the old
low moves east, helping to spread in some more showers to the
panhandle of the Later tonight as the front gets closer to the
panhandle during the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY.../Wednesday night through Friday morning/
A strong incoming atmospheric river will move into the panhandle
beginning early Thursday morning and continuing through Friday
morning. Two distinct frontal features make up a bulk of the heavy
rain for the central and southern panhandle: The first during
Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon, and the next Thursday
evening into Friday morning. Confidence for the precipitation
amounts and gusty conditions following into Thursday night has
increased, with guidance narrowing in on an area extending from
Petersburg and Wrangell down to Ketchikan and Metlakatla. IVT
values look to range between 500-750 kg/ms, with more confidence
on the area moving into the panhandle leaning towards 750 kg/ms
for both waves, with the second wave still appearing to push from
the south into the southern panhandle. Ketchikan and Metlakatla
continue to be the target of opportunity here, with rain rates
possibly exceeding 0.3 inches per hour, and up to 0.25 inches
elsewhere. These rates are expected to be sufficient enough for at
least minor flooding on small creeks and streams, particularly
given the duration of the event.

Alongside these heavy rainfall amounts looking to be around 5 year
return intervals for the southern panhandle, the increased
confidence on elevated winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40-50
mph associated with the second wave brings the possibility of
isolated landslides occurring in areas south of Frederick Sound.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this
     afternoon for AKZ322.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ323-325-327-
     328.
     Flood Watch from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through Friday
     afternoon for AKZ326>330-332.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ329-330-332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ644-663-664-671-672.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031-034-036-641>643-651-652-661-662.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-032-033-035-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDROLOGY...Contino

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