500
FXAK68 PAFC 090046
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 PM AKDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

- The Cold Weather Advisory for Southern Kodiak Island has been
  extended through 10AM AKDT Monday for very cold wind chills as
  low as 15 below zero.

- A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Southern Kenai Mountains
  including the city of Seward (and Resurrection Bay) from
  midnight tonight to 6PM AKDT Tuesday for 25 to 35 mph winds with
  50 mph gusts. Overnight wind chills are expected to drop near 10
  below zero tonight and as low as 20 below zero Monday night.

Discussion:

A vertically stacked low continues to move across the northern
Gulf and farther away from Southcentral. The only area of
precipitation left to mention is across the Southern Kenai
Peninsula where training convective snow bands has produced
isolated areas of light to moderate snowfall accumulations. Aloft,
a shortwave trough beginning to round the base of the upper level
low is adding some upper level support to the area. As the low
further departs, the expectation is for convection to gradually
diminish through tomorrow morning as the shortwave exits and the
surface low moves farther eastward towards Yakutat. On the other
hand, in the wake of the low pressure system, cold air advection
has brought the return of gusty gap winds through typical gap
locations. Of note, a Wind Advisory has been issued for Seward and
Resurrection Bay through Wednesday morning for sustained 25 to 35
mph winds with 50 mph gusts through Seward and Resurrection Bay.
The NBM and much of the high resolution guidance do not bring
winds down considerably through the rest of the short term, so
expect these winds to continue as subsequent rounds of arctic air
continue to spill southward across the region, reinforcing the
thermal and pressure gradient between the Interior and the Gulf.

-AM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Wednesday)...

Much of the outlook area now sits within a northwest flow regime
between a deep trough situated over the Mainland/Gulf and a
strengthening upper ridge building over the western Bering Sea.
Gusty northwest surface winds are now fairly widespread across the
eastern Bering, AKPen and much of Southwest, especially along the
immediate coast. An array of cloud streets continues to spread
across much of the eastern Bering and along/south of the Alaska
Peninsula as frigidly cold air streams south across the sea ice
edge out over open water. Snow shower activity associated with
these low level clouds has decreased somewhat compared to
yesterday, but is still affecting spots along the Bering side of
the AKPen and much of the Fox, Andreanof and Pribilof Islands.
Drier and mostly clear conditions have returned to much of
Southwest, but temperatures remain unusually cold, mainly in the
single digits above/below zero this afternoon. Calm winds and
warmer temperatures in the 30s are spreading across the western
end of the Aleutian Chain as strong high pressure builds into
place.

The pattern through midweek is expected to be remarkably
persistent, with very little change to the general theme we`ve
already seen this weekend. The high pressure ridge will amplify
further with time across the central and western Bering Sea,
extending a quiet and relatively warm trend across the western
half of the Aleutians through Wednesday. Downstream from the
ridge, cold northerly flow will continue to drag Arctic air south
across Southwest and into the AKPen, keeping temperatures well
below average for the next several days. Given high confidence for
strong winds and single digit temperatures to persist along the
AKPen, the Cold Weather Advisory has been extended all the way
through Wednesday afternoon. Here, expect wind chills to dip as
low as -25 each night until temperatures finally begin to rebound
along with weakening northerly winds late Wednesday. A Cold
Weather Advisory also remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta,
where wind chills will dip as low as -40 once again tonight into
Monday morning.

Aside from the cold and northerly winds, the other story will be
continued rounds of snow shower activity, namely with a low-
amplitude shortwave trough moving along the zone of northerly
flow on Monday. This feature will pull moisture from a frontal
system moving near Kamchatka south and west around the ridge,
sending a renewed batch of snow showers first across the Pribilof
Islands Monday morning, then south into the Fox Islands and
southern AKPen towards Monday evening. Most places along this
corridor will see less than an inch of new snowfall accumulation,
but continued north winds could cause areas of blowing snow and
reduced visibilities as the showers brush past. Drier conditions
are expected to return for much of the region thereafter, until
another shortwave disturbance approaches the Kuskokwim Delta with
renewed snow chances late in the day on Wednesday.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska
will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple
shortwaves rotating around the trough. High pressure persists
across the Bering Sea through Saturday afternoon when an upper
level low brings snow showers to the western mainland. Strong
northwesterly flow and cold air advection will result in gusty gap
winds and cold temperatures across the Alaskan Peninsula. A
tightening coastal pressure gradient will also create strong winds
through the gaps of the North Gulf Coast. Forecast confidence is
high that both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will continue to
see below normal temperatures through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The upper-level low over the Kenai Peninsula is very slowly
moving to the southeast. While VFR conditions should continue to
prevail, there is still a chance for an occasional MVFR ceiling
into early this evening with some flurries.

Later this evening, the northerly winds should increase and push
the airport fully into VFR conditions to stay. The VRF conditions
should continue into Monday as cold and dry northerly flow persists
across the region,

&&


$$