Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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939 FXUS65 KABQ 091114 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 514 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 512 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions, very low humidities, and dry vegetation will increase the risk of rapid fire spread east of the central mountain chain today then again Thursday through Sunday. - A warm storm system will spread rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, and very high terrain snow mainly along and south of I-40 tonight through Tuesday evening resulting in little rainfall with a few cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. - Breezy to locally windy conditions with well above average temperatures will return Thursday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026 An upper level low is spinning just offshore of the Baja Peninsula per the latest water vapor satellite imagery and there is notable lightning activity associated with the feature at this time. A weak upper level ridge and a dry airmass remain in place over NM, but the ridge is forecast to shift east out of the area later today and moisture advection will ramp up in advance of the approaching upper low tonight. In the meantime, a deepening lee side trough will bring breezy to locally windy conditions to much of east central and northeast NM again today, with above to well above average temperatures. The upper low will fill and lift northeast toward the NM Bootheel tonight and then continue to weaken as it accelerates east across the area on Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers will develop tonight, favoring the southwest mountains, then spread north and east across our area Tuesday. Thunderstorms are likely as well, especially Tuesday after some daytime heating, so don`t be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder or two. The system will be a quick-hitter and precipitation will be convective, so overall qpf is low with the highest confidence for 0.10" or more of liquid in the southwest mountains. Snow levels will be relatively high with this warm system, generally between 8500-9500Kft, with only the highest terrain in line to pick up a few inches of snowfall. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026 The 565dam 500mb low is forecast to eject east into the TX Panhandle Tuesday evening, with showers and storms diminishing across eastern NM. A backdoor cold front will barrel south down the eastern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning behind the departing upper low. Forecast wind speeds behind the backdoor front have trended up from previous forecast cycles and windy conditions are showing up in the 00Z NAM and GFS MOS for some of our eastern plains sites. Moderate probabilities (50-70%) for wind advisory-type speeds exist for late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning near the TX border and a Wind Advisory may be required. Cooler conditions are forecast behind the backdoor cold front across eastern NM Wednesday, but temperatures across the remainder of central and western NM are forecast to rise above average. The jet stream is forecast to be displaced well north of NM from Thursday through Sunday, with moderate WNW flow aloft over the region. This regime will bring dry and breezy to locally windy conditions each day from Thursday through Sunday, with temperatures rising well above average. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, except with the development and gradual lowering of VFR cigs overnight as moisture associated with an approaching upper low spreads north across the area. An area of LIFR conditions across far southeast NM this morning is forecast to stay well east of KROW. Winds will generally be light through the period, although gusty southerly winds will develop at KROW this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1218 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of northeast and east central NM again today and a Red Flag Warning is in effect. A Pacific low will bring increased humidity and chances for wetting precipitation tonight through Tuesday, favoring the southwest and south central mountains. A strong backdoor cold front will bring windy and cooler conditions to eastern NM Tuesday night into Wednesday while central and western NM remain dry and warm. Moderate WNW flow aloft from Thursday through Sunday will bring warm, dry and breezy to locally windy conditions each day, with the potential for critical fire weather conditions favoring areas east of the central mountain chain. Continued drying of fuels across western NM during the Thursday through Sunday period may bring ERCs up sufficiently to support rapid fire spread. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 67 35 67 36 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 63 27 65 26 / 0 0 20 5 Cuba............................ 66 35 63 34 / 0 20 40 10 Gallup.......................... 67 29 63 29 / 0 20 30 5 El Morro........................ 65 33 58 32 / 0 40 50 10 Grants.......................... 70 31 63 31 / 0 30 50 10 Quemado......................... 67 35 55 33 / 0 60 60 20 Magdalena....................... 69 40 58 40 / 0 50 70 20 Datil........................... 66 36 54 35 / 0 60 80 30 Reserve......................... 70 33 57 31 / 0 80 70 30 Glenwood........................ 75 35 58 33 / 0 80 80 30 Chama........................... 57 30 59 26 / 0 0 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 65 41 62 39 / 0 20 50 20 Pecos........................... 66 35 63 36 / 0 30 60 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 61 36 62 31 / 0 5 40 20 Red River....................... 54 31 56 25 / 0 10 50 20 Angel Fire...................... 58 24 58 20 / 0 20 60 30 Taos............................ 65 30 65 28 / 0 10 40 20 Mora............................ 65 35 63 33 / 0 20 50 20 Espanola........................ 71 35 69 36 / 0 10 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 66 39 64 38 / 0 20 60 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 69 36 66 36 / 0 20 40 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 46 66 43 / 0 30 40 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 72 45 69 44 / 0 30 40 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 75 37 71 37 / 0 30 40 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 73 44 70 43 / 0 30 40 10 Belen........................... 75 39 69 40 / 0 40 50 20 Bernalillo...................... 73 42 70 41 / 0 30 40 20 Bosque Farms.................... 74 37 70 36 / 0 30 50 20 Corrales........................ 74 41 70 41 / 0 30 40 20 Los Lunas....................... 74 38 69 39 / 0 30 40 20 Placitas........................ 69 44 66 41 / 0 30 40 20 Rio Rancho...................... 72 44 69 42 / 0 30 40 10 Socorro......................... 76 44 67 46 / 0 40 50 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 66 41 62 39 / 0 40 60 20 Tijeras......................... 67 42 63 40 / 0 40 60 20 Edgewood........................ 67 39 63 39 / 0 40 50 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 70 30 65 36 / 0 40 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 66 37 62 35 / 0 40 50 20 Mountainair..................... 69 38 62 38 / 0 40 50 20 Gran Quivira.................... 68 38 61 37 / 0 40 50 20 Carrizozo....................... 72 44 61 41 / 0 50 60 20 Ruidoso......................... 67 39 56 40 / 0 50 70 30 Capulin......................... 70 33 67 29 / 0 10 40 30 Raton........................... 73 31 70 30 / 0 10 50 20 Springer........................ 74 31 72 32 / 0 10 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 70 36 66 33 / 0 20 50 20 Clayton......................... 78 44 75 37 / 0 10 30 20 Roy............................. 75 39 70 36 / 0 20 40 20 Conchas......................... 82 40 77 41 / 0 30 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 77 40 72 42 / 0 40 40 20 Tucumcari....................... 83 43 78 41 / 0 30 30 20 Clovis.......................... 82 48 75 41 / 0 30 30 20 Portales........................ 83 45 77 42 / 0 30 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 81 41 74 44 / 0 40 40 20 Roswell......................... 83 47 74 46 / 0 30 40 10 Picacho......................... 79 42 67 45 / 5 40 50 10 Elk............................. 75 40 63 42 / 0 30 60 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11