Public Information Statement
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NOUS41 KWBC 141945
PNSWSH

Public Information Statement 24-72
National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD
245 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

To: Subscribers:
 -NOAA Weather Wire Service
 -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
 -NOAAPort
 Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

From: Stephen Bieda III, Ph.D., Chief
  Severe, Fire, Public, and Winter Weather Services Branch

Subject: Soliciting Comments through October 31, 2025 on the
Experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal (PPP)

The National Weather Service (NWS) is soliciting comments on the
experimental PPP through October 31, 2025.  The PPP is a website
designed and maintained by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
to be the centralized location of all NWS Probabilistic Winter
Precipitation Forecast (PWPF) and Probabilistic Quantitative
Precipitation Forecast (PQPF) information.  PWPF graphics are
created by the PPP across the contiguous United States (CONUS)
and will also be displayed on the CONUS NWS Weather Forecast
Office`s (WFO`s) local winter forecast page.  A Public
Information Statement regarding the availability of PQPF
forecasts on the local WFO QPF and PQPF webpages will be issued
at a later date.

The PPP can be accessed here:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip

Links to the respective WFO local winter forecast pages can be
found here:

https://www.weather.gov/prob-snow/

The winter portion of the PPP subsumes two other ongoing NWS
experiments: the Experimental Probabilistic National Digital
Forecast Database (NDFD) Snow Grids and also the PWPF
Experiment.

The winter portion of the PPP produces 10% and 90% exceedance
percentiles, representing a Low End Amount (a 90% chance of
higher snowfall) and a High End Amount (a 10% chance of higher
snowfall) to complement the existing NWS deterministic snowfall
forecasts (expected amount).  Narrow ranges between the minimum
and maximum snowfall totals indicate high forecast certainty,
while large ranges between minimum and maximum totals indicate
low forecast certainty.  These two percentile values are sent as
grids to NDFD. Grids are valid for 24-, 48- and 72-hour periods
out to 72 hours from 0000 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) Day 1
beginning with the 2200 UTC issuance.  They are valid for 24-,
48- and 72-hour periods out to 72 hours from 1200 UTC Day 1
beginning with the 1100 UTC issuance.  The Probabilistic Snow
Grids are updated once per hour.

The expected amount is the deterministic NDFD forecast.  The PPP
will also allow a forecaster to show the expected amount as a
range of two values (the 25th to 75th percentile amounts) in an
Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) graphic.

The PPP also produces the probability of exceeding the following
amounts of snow (in inches): 0.1, 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, and 18.
The experimental grids are available for download in gridded
binary version two (GRIB2) format via both https: and ftp: from
the NWS Telecommunications Gateway FTP (TGFTP) server.

For CONUS:
tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.conus/V
P.001-003/ds.snow24e10.bin
tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.conus/V
P.001-003/ds.snow24e90.bin
tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.conus/V
P.001-003/ds.snow48e10.bin
tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.conus/V
P.001-003/ds.snow48e90.bin
tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.conus/V
P.001-003/ds.snow72e10.bin
tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.conus/V
P.001-003/ds.snow72e90.bin

Extensible Markup Language (XML) access:

https:/digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/xml/

Visualization of these data will be available on the NDFD map
viewer at:

https://digital.weather.gov/

For additional information, please see the PPP Service
Description Document (SDD) at:

https://nsdesk.servicenowservices.com/api/g_noa/nwspc/res2/76dcd
1a897b596548881bb7de053af15

Users are encouraged to provide feedback on the PPP through the
NWS survey at:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/ExpPPP_2024

For additional comments/questions, please contact:

Eric Guillot
Winter Weather Program Manager
National Weather Service Headquarters
Silver Spring, MD
eric.guillot@noaa.gov

Kimberly McMahon
Public Weather Program Manager
National Weather Service Headquarters
Silver Spring, MD
public.program@noaa.gov

James Nelson
Chief, Development and Training Branch
Weather Prediction Center
College Park, MD
james.nelson@noaa.gov

For general questions regarding NDFD data, please email:
nws.ndfd@noaa.gov

For technical questions regarding NDFD data, please contact:

Dana Strom
Meteorological Development Laboratory
Digital Forecast Services Branch
National Weather Service Headquarters
Silver Spring, MD
dana.strom@noaa.gov

National Public Information Statements are online at:

https://www.weather.gov/notification/