756
FXUS65 KVEF 031148
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
448 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* One more day of thunderstorm activity before dry conditions
  return.

* Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire danger on
  Friday.

* Warming trend expected next week with major heat risk returning
  by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through the middle of next week.

Thunderstorm activity remains quite active tonight with ongoing
storms across central Mohave County and the Colorado River Valley.
This activity is being fueled by fairly strong forcing immediately
ahead of a shortwave trough axis, despite waning instability
during the overnight hours. These storms will gradually lift
northward overnight, staying mainly east of the Las Vegas Valley
though can`t rule out a storm or two even into the metro area,
especially along the east side.

The shortwave trough will finally shift eastward midday tomorrow,
with drier air spreading from west to east. Additional storm
development is still anticipated across Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave
Counties, though activity is favored fairly early in the day
(through about mid-afternoon) before drier air mixes down and
stability increases by the evening hours. Gusty winds and brief
downpours will be the primary impacts with any storms that form.

By Friday, drier air will have overspread the region and an
additional shortwave pushing into the Great Basin will spread a
belt of enhanced low level flow across much of southern Nevada.
Given the low humidity, gusty winds expected, and dry state of
regional grasses and vegetation, fire danger will be quite
elevated. There is also the consideration that it will be the 4th
of July. Strongest winds will be focused across Lincoln County
where a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Friday afternoon and
evening, but enhanced fire danger is expected across much of the
region.

After temps hover slightly below or near seasonal normals through
the weekend, a large and dominant ridge will build over the
interior West next week. This will send temperatures climbing,
with widespread major heat risk advertised by Wednesday and
Thursday. This looks to translate to 110+ high temperatures across
much of the Mojave Desert including Las Vegas, and 120+ within the
lower reaches of Death Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...The
primary aviation concern will be another round of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms across southern Nevada and northwestern
Arizona. Confidence in precise timing and location of storms is
moderate at best, but the favored window for impacts across the
Las Vegas Valley is mid to late afternoon. Storms that develop
will be capable of producing erratic gusty winds, lightning, and
brief downpours that could produce MVFR/IFR conditions. Variable
gusty winds to 20-30KT are also expected in the vicinity of any
outflow boundaries. Convection is expected to move east near or
soon after 00Z, with winds then remaining around 8KT or less
through the night. Friday morning, winds shift to the south,
increasing and becoming gusty late in the period with VFR
conditions prevailing.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon are the primary aviation concern for
southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona, with the greatest
likelihood for impacts across the Las Vegas Valley during the mid
to late afternoon as described for KLAS. Confidence in impacts
wanes further south, though scattered thunderstorms are expected
to gradually move eastward through mid to late evening. Erratic
gusty winds to 20-30KT are expected in the vicinity of any storms
or outflow boundaries, with winds diminishing by this evening.
Across the Western Mojave and Owens Valley, winds generally follow
diurnal patterns, becoming gusty this afternoon, with gusts
lingering overnight across the Western Mojave area. Otherwise,
winds will drop below 10KT areawide overnight, with VFR conditions
expected away from storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy southwest winds will overspread the region on
Friday and combine with min RH dropping into the single digits
and teens. Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated in
Lincoln County where a Red Flag Warning has been posted, with
elevated risk elsewhere. Dry conditions are expected to continue
heading into next week along with a warming trend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Phillipson

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