543
FXUS65 KVEF 300749
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1249 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Abnormally warm temperatures will continue well
into early October with the Excessive Heat Warning in effect for
desert valley locations now through Thursday. Conditions will remain
dry through the week.
&&


.DISCUSSION...Through next Sunday.

A weak cut-off low approached the southern California coast over the
weekend and brought breezy southwest winds in addition to mid-level
moisture that resulted in partly cloudy skies across the
southeastern Great Basin on Sunday. This low will start to
retrograde back into the ocean through the day today, though partly
cloudy skies are possible again across northern Mohave and eastern
Clark counties with virga visible and an occasional sprinkle
possible in the higher elevations. Otherwise, heights will increase
in its wake as a growing area of high pressure over the eastern
Pacific Ocean builds eastward, which will result in continuous
record-breaking heat across the Desert Southwest through the week.

Las Vegas has only reached 100 6 times in October since records
began in 1937. This year, October is forecast to experience numerous
100-degree days. The latest NBM totes an 83% chance of 100 on
October 1st, 80% chance on October 2nd, 75% chance on October 3rd,
and 75% chance on October 4th, with chances decreasing heading into
next weekend. Excessive Heat Warnings currently go out through
Tuesday for the Las Vegas Valley and Moapa Valley and through
Thursday for Death Valley, the Colorado River Valley, southern San
Bernardino County, and south/central Mohave County. We will continue
to assess the need for extensions of these warnings with each shift,
as this late-summer heat is not only unprecedented, but is
dangerous. Statistically, heat-related illnesses increase at the end
of the summer due to body fatigue from fighting heat for months.
These impacts will be exacerbated after the all-time record-breaking
summer that 2024 was for the Desert Southwest.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and diurnal winds through the TAF
period, with only a 25% chance of sustained winds reaching 10+
knots. A few mid-level clouds are possible at times, but generally
clear skies are expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Typical diurnal breezes anticipated across the area
today. Sustained winds remain less than 10 knots at most sites, but
KDAG and KBIH may see periods of 10-12 knots this afternoon. Mostly
clear skies with just a few mid-level clouds possible over the Las
Vegas and Colorado River Valleys.
&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 2 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 2 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           MON, SEP 30 TUE, OCT 1  WED, OCT 2  THU, OCT 3
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     101(2015)*  103(1978)*  100(1980)*  99(2012)*
Bishop        95(1980)*   97(1980)*   96(2020)*   96(1980)*
Needles       108(2010)*  108(2020)*  109(1980)*  107(2020)*
Daggett       104(1980)*  105(1980)*  105(1980)*  102(1980)*
Kingman       98(2010)*   99(2020)*   100(1980)*  99(1980)*
Desert Rock   98(1980)*   100(1980)*  99(2020)*   96(2020)*
Death Valley  114(2003)   113(2003)*  113(2012)*  112(1980)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature
and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes
which records are in jeopardy (within 2 degrees of the
forecast).

WARM MIN      MON, SEP 30 TUE, OCT 1  WED, OCT 2  THU, OCT 3
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     78(2010)*   79(2006)*   76(2010)*   75(2000)*
Bishop        55(1957)    54(2006)    57(1992)    54(1948)
Needles       81(2011)    89(2003)    80(2006)*   79(2005)*
Daggett       73(2010)    74(1980)*   73(2008)*   71(2012)*
Kingman       72(1934)    68(2010)*   69(1945)*   72(1928)
Desert Rock   72(2018)    69(2018)*   73(2005)    66(2005)*
Death Valley  88(1962)    86(2018)*   86(2018)*   85(1943)*
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Woods

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