Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
819 FXUS65 KVEF 300730 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1230 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and breezy conditions will continue across most of the region today. Monsoonal moisture will move back into northwest Arizona today, bringing slight chances for thunderstorms in eastern Mohave County through the middle of the upcoming week. A strong ridge of high pressure will build Wednesday through the Independence Day weekend, with temperatures climbing to dangerous levels for several days. && .SHORT TERM...through Tuesday night. Midnight satellite loop showed clear skies areawide. Surface obs showed hot temperatures and light winds areawide, and higher dewpoints over Mohave County, although these had rapidly decreased in the Colorado River Valley in the preceding few hours. The three primary concerns this period will be fire weather, thunderstorm chances, and heat. Fire weather concerns will max out today over northern Lincoln County, where some high resolution models paint a few hours of gusts over 35 mph this afternoon. See no compelling reason to change the existing Red Flag Warning there. Farther south, winds will also pick up over the Spring Mountains, but since fuels there are not yet critical, having no warning is the correct call. Thunderstorm chances today through Tuesday should be pretty skimpy, with small chances being focused in eastern Mohave County today where the aforementioned higher dewpoints reside. As far as heat goes, high temperatures should only increase one to three degrees through Tuesday, with Moderate HeatRisk expanding but Major and Extreme remaining nearly absent. This will change for the worse as we get into the long term period. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday. The extended outlook continues to point to an excessively hot period setting up for a large portion of our area midweek and beyond. Wednesday looks like the start of an extended period of dangerously hot conditions with multiple days of near record or record heat forecast across the Western Mojave Desert including the Barstow area, across much of Inyo and central and southern Nye counties including Death Valley National Park, Pahrump, and Beatty, and in the Las Vegas Valley. Major to extreme Heat Risk is forecast in these areas through the period where temperatures could approach, tie, or even break daily heat records. Probably the biggest forecast challenge will be in deciphering the daily fluctuation in Heat Risk levels across areas generally south of the I-15 and how this information will be best relayed to emergency management officials and to the public. Moderate to major Heat Risk is indicated throughout the period with Friday standing out as the peak day featuring widespread high Heat Risk. This magnitude of heat is dangerous to everyone and proper safety precautions are recommended including limiting time outdoors and staying hydrated. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light southerly winds will begin picking up around mid-morning before becoming more increasing further and becoming more southwesterly during the early afternoon hours. These 20 to 25 knot southerly to southwesterly winds will continue into the evening hours when gusts will drop off while winds continue to maintain a more southerly/southwesterly direction through the overnight hours. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...15 to 25 knot southerly to southwesterly wind gusts will pick up around mid-morning for the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites. These gusty winds will continue into the evening hours, with winds continuing to favor a southerly to southwesterly direction once the wind gusts drop off after sunset. Winds at KDAG will favor a more westerly direction with 20 to 25 knot wind gusts picking up during the afternoon and continuing through the evening hours. KBIH will follow typical diurnal directional patterns through mid-day when winds will swing around to the southwest and pick up with gusts around 20 knots. These breezy southwesterly winds will decrease and shift to the northwest in a typical diurnal fashion around sunset. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Morgan LONG TERM...Salmen AVIATION...Stessman For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter