686
FXUS65 KVEF 051952
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1252 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions remain favored through much of
next week. Hottest conditions are expected through Monday where
temperatures across much of the lower elevations will approach or
eclipse 100 degrees. A sharper cooling is possible by next weekend
with breezier conditions as a weather system approaches the
Western US.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next week.

Little change in the overall forecast thinking the next several
days with strong high pressure remaining anchored to the region.
Temperatures this afternoon remain on par with yesterday, though
yesterday afternoon had some added help mixing thanks to gusty
winds that we wont be dealing with today, but nonetheless,
temperatures will remain near or above daily records. Harry Reid
airport has reached 98 already and still looks promising to reach
100, which would set a new record for latest 100 degree day. Heat
of a similar magnitude will continue through Monday with little
overall day-to-day changes. Given the expectation of persistent
heat, extended the Excessive Heat Warning for the Colorado
River/Morongo Basin/Death Valley one more day into Monday evening
as heat risk changes little during the time period.

Tuesday and beyond...High pressure ridge deamplifies somewhat as
stronger troughing begins to nudge into the PacNW and offshore of
the West Coast. This will result in a slow downward trend in
regional heights and a return of afternoon southwesterly breezes
by late in the week. Nonetheless, the cool down will be very
gradual, with above normal temperatures persisting through Friday.
Uncertainty increases by next weekend as some ensemble members
suggest the trough moving inland and dragging a weak cold front
through the region, while others are much weaker with it`s
remnants or even insist on maintaining a ridge. For now, a slight
cool down is advertised for the weekend but the forecast will
fluctuate until guidance better resolves the changing flow
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light east-northeast breezes persist
through the daytime hours, possibly reaching 10 knots at times in
the early afternoon (40% chance). Typical southwest winds after
sunset, continuing through the night with speeds less than 10 knots.
Mostly clear skies with just a few mid-level clouds around.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light and diurnal wind patterns forecast for most of
the area airports with speeds around 10 knots or less. The exception
will be in the Colorado River Valley where winds retain a northerly
component throughout the TAF period. Strongest north winds expected
at KIFP where gusts of 20-25 knots are possible in the late morning
and early afternoon. Just a few mid-level clouds around most of the
region, but KBIH will see SCT-BKN sky conditions this afternoon.
Cloud bases remain at or above 12kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

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