731
FXUS65 KVEF 040537
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1037 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire danger on
  Friday.

* Warming trend expected next week with major heat risk returning by
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The rest of today through Thursday.

Through the early afternoon, convection has developed in portions of
southern Nevada as an upper level trough lifts into southwest Utah.
So far, most of the thunderstorm activity has been terrain based
as the center of the low moves overhead. This should continue
through the afternoon with some of the storms blowing off the
terrain into nearby valleys, but in general activity will be more
isolated than the past few days. With decent CAPE and dry air
intruding in behind the existing systems, so sudden gusty winds
are possible with any storms. PWATs have decreased from the other
day but continue to be elevated, especially in Mohave County,
which could lead to heavy rain at times and isolated flash
flooding. Thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish late this
afternoon and evening as the trough lifts out.


Another shortwave will zip through northern Nevada on Friday behind
the exiting trough. This will bring in additional dry air and no
precipitation is expected Friday through next week. As the piece of
energy moves through, a strengthening pressure gradient will result
in increasing south to southwest winds across the region. Widespread
gusts of 20-30MPH will develop Friday afternoon. While the
probability for hitting 40 MPH is moderate to high (60%-80%) in
the Western Mojave Desert into the Death Valley area, gusts
should only briefly touch 40 MPH and thus impacts would be
limited. With dry conditions and breezy winds, elevated to high
fire danger is expected on Friday. For additional information on
fire weather conditions and fire danger, please see the FIRE
WEATHER section.

After temps hover slightly below or near seasonal normals through
the weekend, a ridge will build over the interior West next week.
While there is some uncertainty in exactly where the high will
set up and how strong it will build, warming trend and above
normal temperatures are likely. Widespread major heat risk
advertised by Wednesday and Thursday. This looks to translate to
110+ high temperatures across much of the Mojave Desert including
Las Vegas, and 120+ within the lower reaches of Death Valley.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Much
quieter weather is expected Friday. The main concerns will be
southerly winds gusting around 25 knots in the afternoon and smoke
from fireworks after sunset. Few or no clouds expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Much quieter weather is
expected Friday, with only a tiny chance for a thunderstorm in
Lincoln and Mohave counties. Otherwise, the main concerns will be
south to southwest winds gusting 20 to 30 knots areawide in the
afternoon, with gusts as high as 40 knots in the Death Valley
National Park area, before subsiding in the evening. Areas of smoke
from fireworks can be expected near populated areas after sunset.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Morgan

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