461
FXUS65 KVEF 241756
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1056 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
  area beginning later this morning and continuing into the evening
  hours. Similar conditions are expected again on Monday.

* Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  middle of the week, with things drying back out as we head into
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Saturday

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible aross
the region beginning later this morning and continuing into the
evening hours. Without any lingering cloud cover from decaying MCVs,
chances look better than previous days for storms to develop across
the central portion of our forecast area as there will be nothing to
inhibit daytime heating. Storms will tend to favor areas of higher
terrain for initial development, tending to drift off the higher
terrain moving from south to north. Additional storm development
will be possible across lower elevations an valleys as outflow
boundaries move through. Typical hazards will be in play, with
strong outflow winds, moderate-to-heavy rain, flash flooding, and
frequent lightning possible with any storms that develop today.
Outflow winds from distant storms may impact area lakes, resulting
in choppy waves and hazardous boating conditions. Boaters should
make sure to remain weather aware while on the water. Conditions on
Monday are expected to be fairly similar to today as HiRes models do
not show any debris clouds from decaying convection moving through
overnight and limiting daytime heating on Monday. However,
temperatures will cool a few degrees from today to tomorrow as we
see 500 mb heights begin to fall.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into the middle
of the week as our anomalous monsoonal moisture sticks around. A
weak shortwave trough will approach the coast of California on
Tuesday, providing additional lift to help fuel showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensemble members continue to
highlight Tuesday as the day with the best chances for widespread
convection with showers and thunderstorm activity lingering into
Wednesday and potentially Thursday for portions of the area. Hazards
with these mid-week storms will be similar to today and tomorrow`s
convective hazards. Eventually the dry southwesterly flow aloft
resulting from this shortwave will scour moisture from the area with
things drying out as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Showers
and thunderstorms will develop around the terminals this afternoon,
favoring the mountains to the south and west. Low chance for direct
thunderstorms over the terminals today, however nearby convection
could push one or more outflow boundaries toward the terminal,
resulting in sudden erratic wind shifts. Storms will weaken and
dissipate by sunset. Monday is expected to be similar to today but
with higher thunderstorm coverage as well and a higher chance for
thunderstorms over the terminals. Other than sudden gusty winds- any
storms today and Monday could result in heavy rain, lightning, and
CIGs to 10kft. Temperatures are forecast to be above 100F from 19Z
to 04Z, but thunderstorms at or near the terminal could shorten that
time window.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected areawide today, with the greatest threat
and highest thunderstorm coverage expected in the Sierra and
northern Inyo County. Storms today could produce sudden gusty
erratic winds, CIGs to 8kft-10kft, lightning, and heavy rain.
Convection will wane tonight, but addition showers and thunderstorms
are expected across region on Monday. Outside of thunderstorms,
winds should follow typical patterns with speeds to around 10KT with
prevailing VFR conditions. Looking ahead- The threat of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region each day
through at least Wednesday, with the most coverage expected on
Tuesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Nickerson

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