387
FXUS65 KVEF 121050
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
350 AM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Precipitation chances and gusty winds return Monday and Tuesday
  onward as a more traditional cool-season, Pacific system
  approaches.

* A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Eastern Sierra late
  Monday afternoon into early Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday.

For the first time in several days, we will see dry conditions
across the region as a Pacific trough swings through the region.
Along with the dry conditions we will see high temperatures drop
about 7 to 10 degrees from Saturday`s highs.

The next Pacific trough that will impact the area is currently
situated off the southwest Canada coast. This trough will quickly
develop into a closed low and dig down the West Coast over the next
couple of days. As this occurs, it will pick up plenty of Pacific
moisture and bring plenty of precipitation to the Pacific Northwest
Monday and into central California by Monday evening. Precipitation
chances will increase across the southern Sierra Monday afternoon
and begin to spill over into the eastern slopes Monday evening. How
much snow is still in question, but NBM probabilities of 8-12" in
Aspendell are around 60-80%. For this reason, have gone ahead and
issued a Winter Storm Watch for the eastern Sierra from late Monday
afternoon through early Wednesday morning. This system will also be
relatively cold, so snow levels are expected to drop to around 7000
feet. Current thinking is 1-2 feet of snow between 7000-9000 feet
and upwards of 2 feet or greater near the Sierra crest. Another
concern we have would be how much precipitation will be rainshadowed
by the Sierra as this system moves in. It looks like the flow will
be more favorable for this spillover to occur and rain is expected
to spread into the Owens Valley by Tuesday morning and across
Esmeralda, central Nye, and northern Lincoln counties by Wednesday
morning. Areas to the south will remain dry, but gusty southwest
winds are likely with the potential for impactful wind gusts over 40
MPH in parts of the Southern Great Basin Monday and Tuesday.

As the system moves inland, winds will decrease the rest of the week
as the low center moves over. Temperatures will remain well below
normal through the period, with the coldest temperatures expected
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A Freeze Watch may be needed
for the Owens Valley Monday night, if not definitely Tuesday night
as ensembles probabilities show increasing chances for low
temperatures below 32F at Bishop and the valley areas.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A cold front pushed
through the region early this morning and winds have shifted to a
northeast direction with speeds around 10-15 knots. Winds are
expected to stay northeast between 14z-20Z around 10-15 knots before
shifting back to the northeast and decreasing to around 6-8 knots.
Winds will then veer around to a more southwest direction less than
7 knots after sunset.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...A cold front has pushed
through the region early this morning with winds at most TAF sites
shifting to the northwest to north, the exception will be KDAG where
westerly winds around 10-12 knots will prevail through the morning
before shifting easterly in the afternoon. Some gusts to around 15
knots this morning, but winds will diminish to less than 10 knots
this afternoon. VFR conditions expected.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Gorelow

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