696
FXUS65 KVEF 092151
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
251 PM PDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather expected through Monday. A weak weather
system will bring spotty shower chances to areas south of
Interstate 40 on Tuesday. A stronger system will bring strong
gusty winds to the area Wednesday and Thursday along with
widespread rain and heavy mountain snow, along with a drop in
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

Calm weather with seasonable temperatures will continue through
Monday as a ridge builds across the area before shifting eastward
ahead of an approaching Pacific low pressure system. This first
incoming low is currently several hundred miles off the
California coastline and will continue to creep eastward in the
coming 48 hours, tracking mainly south of our area. Despite the
favorable oceanic trajectory to bring moisture into the deserts,
most of the moisture will be focused into the Sonoran Desert and
southern Arizona, with only very spotty and light showers brushing
our southern zones, mainly south of I-40. A modest decrease in
temperatures is expected areawide as the wave moves through
Tuesday along with some breezier conditions and increase cloud
cover, but otherwise little weather of interest for most of our
region.

A stronger storm system will follow on its heels Wednesday into
Thursday, featuring a favorable moisture tap for widespread rain
and mountain snow, widespread gusty winds, and colder
temperatures. Overall, little has changed in the overall
expectations with this storm, and confidence continues to
increase in regards to winter impacts in our higher terrain. In
collaboration with our neighboring Reno and Hanford NWS offices,
issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Sierra where probabilities
remain high for 1-2 feet of snow above 8000 feet Wednesday into
Thursday. Also included the White Mountains of Inyo County where
spillover precipitation could result in 6 to 10 inches of snow
impacting Westgard Pass.

Outside of the Sierra, expecting a atmospheric river type storm
system to move through late Wednesday into Thursday, spreading at
least light precipitation across most of the Mojave Desert.
Precipitation forecasts will be susceptible to the usual limiting
factors including rainshadow influences and a fairly rapid
progression of the moisture plume through the area, but ensemble
means continue to support widespread measurable precipitation,
with means in the Las Vegas Valley of between 0.10-0.30. In the
higher elevations, another round of heavy snow is expected in the
Spring Mountains and Sheep Range, with rather intense snowfall
rates possible as the front moves through Thursday morning when
snowfall rates may exceed 1-2 inches per hour above 7000 feet.
Went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Spring
Mountains and Sheep Range as well.

Further north, winter impacts are also expected in the Southern
Great Basin, especially elevations above 5000 feet in Lincoln
County and Esmeralda counties which observed heavy snow just last
week. Uncertainties in snowfall amounts and snow levels limit
confidence to issue a winter headline up there at this time, but
trends will continue to be monitored as the event draws closer.

Outside of the precipitation, strong and progressive trough
featuring a strong thermal gradient will naturally include a wind
element, and gusty winds will return to much of the region with
this system. Wind headlines may be needed down the road,
especially for the Western Mojave Desert Thursday.

The midweek storm will exit stage right by Friday with improving
conditions expected over the weekend. However, active weather
pattern looks to continue into mid-March, with additional weather
systems hinted at by ensemble guidance by the following week. The
Climate Prediction Centers official forecast continues to favor
below normal temperatures and wetter than normal conditions
through the 6-10 day period.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
winds are expected through Monday morning, with the only concern
being a slight chance of a brief easterly gust over 10 knots during
the day today. No clouds or weather expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Southerly winds gusting
around 20 knots will return to portions of Inyo, Esmeralda, and Nye
counties today and spread to the higher elevations of the Mojave
Desert Monday. No operationally significant clouds or weather
expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Berc

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