698
FXUS65 KVEF 150451
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1051 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A potent, early-season storm system brings gusty winds and
  precipitation to the region today, including accumulating snow
  above 7000-8000 feet.

* Temperatures will be well below normal most of the week, with
  freezing morning low temperatures across the Owens Valley and
  Southern Great Basin Wednesday morning.

* Pleasant conditions for the remainder of the week with a gradual
  warming trend by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.

Our well-advertised Pacific low has arrived. Widespread 30-45 mph
wind gusts are begin reported across the area, and will continue
through the evening hours. Wind Advisories remain in effect for most
of southeastern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and the Mojave
Preserve until 9PM tonight. Farther west, precipitation has been
spilling over the Sierra into western Inyo County all morning, but
has been slow to progress eastward. Rainfall amounts in the Owens
Valley are 0.10" - 0.75" as of 1PM, greatest in central and southern
portions of the valley. Higher up, sensors in the eastern Sierra
suggest the snow level is currently around 7500-8000 feet, though
these should decrease to ~6500` by early evening. Sierra SNOTEL
sites have picked up ~6" thus far, with more on the way. Models
show the main band of precipitation sliding eastward this
afternoon and evening, bringing rain/snow to primarily areas along
and north of I-15. For the Owens Valley and southern Great Basin
valleys, amounts generally 0.25"-0.75" with localized areas around
1". For the Mojave Desert valleys, 0.25" or less, decreasing with
southward extent. On the wintry side, minor to moderate snow
impacts continue to be expected in the Sierra, White, and Spring
mountains where winter headlines remain in effect through tonight.
In the Sierra and White mountains, impacts should largely be
above 7000 feet, while in the Spring Mountains they`re more likely
above 8000 feet.

Precipitation chances exit the area tomorrow morning, leaving light
breezes and notably cooler temperatures to dominate the weather.
Wednesday morning lows in the Owens Valley are likely (75%) to be
below freezing, prompting the Freeze Warning for this area.
Additionally, it looks like the valleys of Lincoln County could see
their first freeze Thursday morning. If trends continue, a Freeze
Warning will likely be needed. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to be
~15 degrees below normal for mid-October, with Vegas likely (75%)
not breaking out of the 60s. Temperatures will then gradually
moderate back to seasonable values by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Vicinity
showers will continue for another hour or so, but in general any
rain impacts should end at 06Z for the valley with CIGs scattering
out and rain moving away. Sky conditions improve overnight as
precipitation pushes off to the east. South winds around 10KT will
continue through the night, but no gusts are expected through early
Wednesday morning. Southwest breezes develop Wednesday morning
around sunrise and continue until a northerly wind shift Wednesday
afternoon. North to northwest winds around 8KT will continue into
the evening then typical overnight light wind patterns return
Wednesday night.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
isolated showers will continue to shift east with rain impacts
possible in Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave counties through Wednesday
early morning. Within precipitation, expect lowered CIGs to around
6000ft and reduced visibilities to 5SM at times. As precipitation
pushes eastward overnight, sky conditions will gradually improve in
its wake. By sunrise Wednesday, any lingering precipitation should
be confined to the southern Great Basin. Lighter southwest breezes
are expected on Wednesday, eventually turning to the northwest at 8-
10KT across the area through the day with northwest winds reaching
the Colorado River Valley by 00Z.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Nickerson


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