428
FXUS65 KVEF 010714
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1214 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Record high temperatures and dry weather will continue
through the week as a strong area of high pressure remains parked
over the Desert Southwest.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Monday. Midnight satellite loop showed
clear skies areawide. Surface obs showed light winds and
unseasonably warm temperatures, with little change from 24 hours
ago. Heat remains the main concern. Extended the Excessive Heat
Warnings for Death Valley, southern San Bernardino county, the
Colorado River Valley, and central and southern Mohave county
through 8 PM Friday, as HeatRisk remains essentially unchanged from
Thursday to Friday in those areas. For Las Vegas and northeast Clark
County, see no need to extend the warning beyond Tuesday, as
HeatRisk falls to Moderate Wednesday and beyond. That being said, it
is still going to be hot. Per the latest NBM run, the probability
for high temperatures reaching 100F at KLAS finally falls below 50%
on Sunday and continues decreasing thereafter. The record for the
latest 100F in the year is October 4th (1947), and the probability
of 100F on October 5th has been between 50% and 60% for the last few
NBM runs. For early next week, a majority of model clusters show the
ridge remaining in place and very slowly weakening, which would
bring highs in Las Vegas down to double digits, but keep
temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for early October. A
minority of the perturbations show weak low pressure moving in, and
there is disagreement among these few solutions whether this low
would have any moisture associated with it, so precipitation chances
are not worth mentioning at this stage. Even these solutions would
keep temperatures above normal, although less above normal than the
majority of solutions. In short, despite a very slow "cooling"
trend, the heat is going to continue for a while.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Typical diurnal winds throughout the
TAF period, favoring a northeasterly direction during the day and a
southwesterly one at night. Only a ~10% chance of speeds reaching 10
knots. A few mid-level clouds possible this afternoon but otherwise
clear skies.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light and diurnal winds at most of the area TAF sites
this afternoon with speeds around 10 knots or less. The exception
will be sites in the Colorado River Valley where north winds are
forecast to gust between 15-30 knots. Gusts should peak in the late
morning and early afternoon, gradually waning in the late afternoon
and evening. Other than a few mid-level clouds during peak heating,
mostly clear skies will prevail.
&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 2 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 2 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           TUE, OCT 1  WED, OCT 2  THU, OCT 3  FRI, OCT 4
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     103(1978)*  100(1980)*  99(2012)*   100(1947)*
Bishop        97(1980)*   96(2020)*   96(1980)*   95(1987)*
Needles       108(2020)*  109(1980)*  107(2020)*  106(1964)*
Daggett       105(1980)*  105(1980)*  102(1980)*  104(1980)*
Kingman       99(2020)*   100(1980)*  99(1980)*   98(1964)*
Desert Rock   100(1980)*  99(2020)*   96(2020)*   96(1980)*
Death Valley  113(2003)*  113(2012)*  112(1980)*  111(1991)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature
and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes
which records are in jeopardy (within 2 degrees of the
forecast).

WARM MIN      TUE, OCT 1  WED, OCT 2  THU, OCT 3  FRI, OCT 4
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     79(2006)*   76(2010)*   75(2000)*   74(2022)*
Bishop        54(2006)    57(1992)    54(1948)    56(2011)
Needles       89(2003)    80(2006)*   79(2005)*   78(2000)*
Daggett       74(1980)*   73(2008)*   71(2012)*   71(1980)
Kingman       68(2010)*   69(1945)*   72(1928)    69(2007)*
Desert Rock   69(2018)*   73(2005)    66(2005)*   62(1985)*
Death Valley  86(2018)*   86(2018)*   85(1943)*   85(1963)*
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Woods
CLIMATE...Soulat

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