369
FXUS65 KVEF 080731
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1230 AM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions and a warming trend will continue through today as
  high pressure builds across the region.

* Increasing confidence for showers and thunderstorms Thursday
  through Saturday as moisture from Hurricane Priscilla moves into
  the Desert Southwest.

* Pockets of very heavy rainfall and localized flooding are
  possible across parts of Northwest Arizona and Colorado River
  Valley late Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through early next week.

High pressure will remain over the area through today, but we will
start to see some minor changes this afternoon. Low pressure off the
Pacific NW coast will slowly shift south today increasing the
southwest flow over our far northwest zones. This will bring some
increasing south to southwest winds across northern Inyo, Esmeralda,
and central Nye counties with breezy to locally wind conditions
expected. Most of those area will see wind gusts 25-35 mph, but
winds in the Owens Valley could see afternoon gusts approaching 40
mph. Elsewhere, south to southwest winds will increase, but most
areas will see gusts 10-20 mph. Meanwhile, temperatures will climb a
few degrees above normal today under continued sunshine and rising
heights.

Changes are in store Thursday onward as increasing moisture from
Hurricane Priscilla is advected northward ahead of a deepening
trough off the West Coast. Increasing cloud cover will spread
northward Thursday morning and by Thursday afternoon, precipitable
water anomalies of 250-350% of normal or greater will encompass most
of the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin.

This highly anomalous moisture advection interacting with the
approaching trough and favorable jet dynamics will result in
several periods of shower and thunderstorm activity late in the
week. Forecast guidance seems to be hinting at an axis of
precipitation developing on the western edge of the deeper moisture
collocated with the right entrance region of an upper level jet by
Thursday evening. This precipitation axis sets up roughly along the
I-15 corridor, with additional pockets of precipitation developing
across Northwest Arizona and the Colorado River Valley into Friday.

What remains somewhat uncertain is how much of the precipitation
will be stratiform versus convective, but given the near record
precipitable water values, along with synoptic enhancement from the
approaching trough, heavier downpours could certainly pose a flood
risk with the potential of a Flash Flood Watch increasing.

This deep subtropical moisture will remain in place through Saturday
morning before gradually drying out from west to east through Sunday
as the trough axis sweeps through. Still lots of uncertainty toward
the middle of next week as the pattern looks to remain unsettled.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds
will generally follow diurnal patterns through Wednesday evening,
shifting from the southwest tonight to the east by late morning,
and to the southeast by afternoon, increasing to around 8KT. Late
afternoon through the evening, winds settle more out of the south,
remaining around 8KT, though intermittent higher gusts to 12-15KT
cannot be ruled out. Winds then become light and variable
overnight, with increasing mid and high clouds late evening
onward. VFR conditions prevail.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Winds across the
region will generally favor diurnal directional patterns the next
24 hours, with winds shifting to the southeast and south areawide
by Wednesday afternoon. Sustained speeds largely remain around
10KT or less, though slightly stronger winds with gusts to 15-20KT
are expected across portions of the Colorado River Valley, the
southern Las Vegas Valley, and in the western Mojave Desert. In
the Owens Valley, KBIH will see gusty up-valley winds from
afternoon onward, peaking around 30KT late afternoon through mid
evening. Elsewhere, winds diminish after sunset. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow/Outler
AVIATION...Phillipson

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