431
FXUS65 KVEF 042142
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
242 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy southwesterly winds coupled with dry conditions will
  increase the risk of fire danger this Independence Day, with a Red
  Flag Warning in effect for southern Nevada and northwestern
  Arizona.

* Haze and smoke will remain visible through the weekend as a result
  of nearby wildfire and firework activity.

* Temperatures will eclipse seasonal averages by the end of this
  weekend, with temperatures continuing to climb through the work
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

A shortwave trough pushing through the southern Great Basin will
elevate surface pressure gradients across the Desert Southwest, as
an area of high pressure builds over northern Mexico. As a result,
gusty southwesterly winds between 25 and 35 mph are expected this
afternoon. These winds combined with very dry conditions and dry
vegetation will increase wildfire risk across southern Nevada and
northwestern Arizona. These concerns are exacerbated by Independence
Day activities including cookouts, campfires, and fireworks. If
planning any of these events, please ensure you have a bucket of
water and/or a hose nearby to extinguish any fires that may occur.
Fore more information, see the FIRE WEATHER discussion below.
Southwesterly winds will continue over the next couple of days, but
to a lesser magnitude, which will abate fire concerns.

The Madre Fire in Southern California northeast of Santa Maria is up
to 70,800 acres as of 12 PM PDT. Due to persistent southwesterly
winds through the weekend, we can expect to see smoke and haze on
the horizon for the next few days.

A growing ridge of high pressure is centered over northern Mexico
and will allow heights to rise over the Desert Southwest through
this weekend and the upcoming work week. There remains some
uncertainty regarding how high temperatures will climb heading into
next weekend, as ensembles continue to resolve a cut off low`s
impact to the dominant high late-week. Latest runs show this cut-off
low weaken into an open wave as it pushes into the southern Great
Basin Wednesday and Thursday. PWATs increase very modestly... from
0.25-0.4" to 0.5-0.7". Not expecting precipitation at this time,
but can`t rule out some partial cloud cover, which will help
reduce afternoon high temperatures. Will continue to assess the
intensity of the upcoming heatwave, but regardless of exact
temperatures, this is our hottest time of year, so take
precautions if heading outside such as increasing water
consumption, wearing sunscreen, and eating light meals during the
day.
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning in effect for Nevada Fire Weather
Zones 461, 462, 463, 465, and 466 and for Arizona Fire Weather Zones
101 and 102 through 8 PM tonight. Gusty southwest winds with speeds
between 25 and 35 mph coupled with afternoon relative humidities
between 5 and 15 percent will elevate wildfire danger across
southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona, where dry fuels exist.
Independence Day activities such as cookouts, fire pits, and
fireworks increase wildfire concerns. Tips for preventing wildfires
include sticking to "safe and sane" fireworks, leaving larger ones
to the professionals; keep a bucket of water or hose nearby as an
extra precaution; keep grills away from structures or trees and
ensure campfires are fully extinguished before walking away.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty
south-southwesterly winds will continue to pick up this afternoon,
with peak gusts between 25 and 30 kts. Gusts will wane in speed and
frequency after sunset, but cannot rule out occasional gusts to 20
kts before they completely fall off. Sustained winds will remain
elevated from the south overnight before gusty southwest winds 20-25
kts return Saturday afternoon. Slantwise visibility reductions
expected from the Daggett and Beatty corridors due to smoke from the
Madre Fire in southern California. Firework-related surface smoke
expected between 04 and 06Z this evening. Temperatures will fall
below 100 degrees between 01 and 02Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and
southeastern California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty
southwesterly winds continue this afternoon between 20 and 30 kts
for Las Vegas Valley TAF sites and KBIH... from the south for
Colorado River Valley TAF sites... from the west for KDAG. Wind
gusts will decrease in speed and frequency overnight, but sustained
winds will remain elevated through the night. Expect similar winds
Saturday afternoon, but to a lesser magnitude. Slantwise visibility
reductions expected from the Daggett and Beatty corridors due to
smoke from the Madre Fire in southern California. Firework-related
surface smoke expected in the Las Vegas Valley between 04 and 06Z
this evening.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Soulat


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