162
FXUS65 KVEF 181910
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1210 PM PDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...The system that brought gusty winds and precipitation to
the area will gradually exit the area today and tomorrow. Calmer
weather and warmer temperatures are expected to return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Sunday Night.

The upper level low will move southeast into Arizona from its
current position over southwestern Utah through the rest of today
and tomorrow, leading to a notable change in weather conditions
across the forecast area. First, wraparound moisture and instability
associated with the exiting low has resulted in thunderstorm
development over northern Mohave County this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms should become more numerous in Mohave County this
afternoon. Modest 300 to 500 J/kg CAPE and cold air aloft mean these
might produce some small hail and graupel, but inverted V sounding
signatures and 500 to 800 J/kg downdraft CAPE point towards gusty
outflow winds as the main threat as seen in yesterday`s storms. Any
rainfall that reaches the surface will be light. Storm activity
should taper off after sunset as surface heating diminishes and the
low tracks east out of the area. Dry air will move in behind the
exiting system and no additional precipitation is expected through
the weekend.

The other forecast challenge is wind. A tight pressure gradient has
formed behind the exiting low resulting in gusty northerly winds at
the surface. Wind Advisories remain in effect until 11 PM tonight
for Esmeralda County and central Nye County, as well as Owens Valley
and Death Valley in Inyo County. Peak wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph
range are expected in these areas - Bishop already reported a gust
of 45 mph earlier this morning. Gusty northerly winds pick up along
the Colorado River tomorrow as the trough heads east, which could
lead to increased wave activity on Lake Mohave. Winds are light
across the area by Sunday.

Temperatures will gradually increase through the weekend. High
temperatures reach near to above average temperatures by Sunday,
which for Las Vegas means highs in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

General cyclonic flow will dominate the weather pattern much of next
week, which will result in dry conditions. On southwest flow,
temperatures will warm back above normal on Monday to about 8-10
degrees above normal then will remain around this level through the
week. Weak impulses may zip through the mean flow at times, however
they will be weak and should not result in any significant weather
impacts. Breezy winds will be possible at times with the shortwaves
moving through, especially the second half of the week, but
probabilities for gusts over 40 MPH remain under 50% each day next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Gusty northerly winds have picked up and will remain
through the day with a period of stronger gusts gusting 20-30KT between
about 20Z and 02Z before decreasing. Clouds will continue to
decrease throughout the day, with cloud bases around 15kft AGL
expected.The wind direction will vary between the northwest and
north, gusts diminishing after 05Z, and sustained speeds dropping
to around 10KT by Saturday morning. VFR conditions will prevail.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Las Vegas Valley
terminals will follow similar trends to KLAS, with gusty winds
 up to 20-30KT throughout the day. KBIH will see continued
northwesterly to northerly winds with sustained speeds around
25KT this morning with gusts to 30-35KT expected through early
evening, when gusts begin diminishing. At KDAG, westerly to
northwesterly winds will remain gusty through 19/00Z, when winds
will briefly shift to the north before backing to the west and
dropping to around 10KT by the evening. In the Lower Colorado
River Valley, light and variable winds at KEED and KIFP will
become gusty out of the north to northwest around 20-21Z, with
gusts to 25-30KT expected. After sunset, winds decrease, but
remain elevated and at least intermittently gusty through the
night, with gusts to 15-20KT. While a few showers may develop in
the vicinity of KIFP and KEED this afternoon, confidence is too
low to include mention. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail, with
ceilings gradually improving to 15-25kft through the period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Berc

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