247
FXUS65 KVEF 041125
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
425 AM PDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm activity will be limited to
eastern Mohave County this afternoon as the weather system moves
east. By Saturday, precipitation chances end area-wide and it will
remain dry into next week as a ridge builds into the region. The
main concern today and Saturday is gusty northerly winds,
especially along the Colorado River. Temperatures will warm today
through next week, with above normal temperatures expected by
Sunday through next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

The upper level trough will continue to shift east and weaken today.
Precipitation chances will shift east with the trough axis, with
showers focused this afternoon in Mohave County. Dry air will advect
on northerly winds into the region while midlevels will continue to
warm and moisture remains low, which will limit overall
precipitation chances and impacts. Most of today`s showers will be
terrain driven in eastern Mohave County and any thunderstorms will
be very isolated as instability wanes. Light showers could produce
brief gusty winds, otherwise not expecting precipitation impacts
today. The pressure gradient will increase across the region today
as the trough is squeezed out by an incoming ridge to the west,
which will result in breezy north to northeast winds. Expecting
widespread 20-30 MPH gusts this afternoon, with isolated higher
gusts in the Colorado River Valley. The Laughlin area could gust to
40 MPH late this afternoon very briefly but wind impacts are not
expected there or in any location this afternoon. Temperatures this
afternoon will be warmer than yesterday, though high temperatures
today are still going to be about 10 degrees below normal.

The ridge will continue to build in tonight and Saturday but still
be battling to kick out the upper level trough. While the trough will
move east enough by Saturday such that precipitation is not expected
area wide, winds on Saturday will be stronger than this afternoon
with winds gusting 25-35 MPH in many locations. There is a chance
for wind impacts in the Colorado River Valley where terrain
enhancement could result in wind gusts of 40 MPH or wind speeds that
would impact boaters. However, the orientation and location of the
strongest low level winds will not be ideal where north wind
enhancement would best occur in the river valley. In addition, the
pressure gradient will actually be strongest very early in morning
then quickly weaken through the day. Ensemble probabilities for
impactful winds match this trend with a brief window of higher
probabilities for gusts over 40 MPH or wind speeds over 25 MPH in
the lower Colorado River Valley in the morning that quickly decrease
through the day. Impacts are possible to boaters on Lake Mohave
briefly Saturday morning after sunrise when north winds 20-25 MPH
are possible, but impacts should be isolated to Lake Mohave and only
occur for a few hours, therefore held off on issuing widespread wind
headlines in the Colorado River Valley or for area lakes. If impacts
look more widespread of for a longer timeframe with later model
runs, a wind headline may be needed.

The ridge will finally overcome the trough and move into the
Southwest US on Sunday. Winds will be lighter on Sunday compared to
today and Saturday. Temperatures will warm Saturday and Sunday as
heights build into the region with near normal temperatures expected
on Saturday then slightly above normal temperatures possible by
Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

The long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a ridge
of high pressure that will bring well above normal temperatures
through the week. The ridge that builds over the weekend will
flatten briefly early in the week as a shortwave moves into the
Pacific NW. This will have little impact on our sensible weather and
temperatures will climb to above normal readings starting Monday.
Temperatures will continue to rise through the week, likely peaking
by Friday. The probabilities of Las Vegas reaching 90 degrees on
Tuesday is currently around 5%, but by Tuesday that number reaches
63%. The temperatures will only continue to warm through Friday with
an almost 100% chance of at least 90 by Thursday and a 25% chance of
reaching 95 degrees on both Thursday and Friday. Although Las Vegas
did reach 92 degrees on March 26, this will be the most prolonged
heat so far this season. Other areas across the forecast area will
see temperatures about 15 degrees above normal. HeatRisk increases
to "Low" (Level 1 on a scale of 0-4) for desert valleys Monday
including Las Vegas, Moapa Valley, Death Valley, Pahrump Valley, and
the Colorado River Valley. The HeatRisk does increase to "Moderate"
(Level 2) for the Colorado River Valley and Death Valley by
Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds
should shift to northerly early this morning, with gusts to around
20 knots beginning around 16Z. A big question mark is how far the
winds will veer toward the east. The TAF will show 020 from mid
morning through sunset, but oscillations between 350 and 050 are
likely, which will cause headaches. When the gusts end this evening,
the direction could veer more than expected, possibly as far as 060,
but it could also back around to 350. The forecast of 040 -> 010 is
a compromise between these extremes. Expect more gusty northeasterly
winds Saturday. Clouds around 10K feet will increase during the day
and decrease again after sunset.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Northerly winds will
spread south and increase this morning, with the strongest gusts of
30 to 35 knots expected in the Colorado River Valley and over the
higher mountains today. Winds will subside a little overnight but
increase again Saturday, with the strongest gusts in the Colorado
River Valley again. Clouds based around 12K feet MSL will increase
during the day, possibly obscuring the highest peaks, before
decreasing after sunset.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Gorelow
AVIATION...Morgan

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