Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
543 FXUS65 KVEF 300749 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1249 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Abnormally warm temperatures will continue well into early October with the Excessive Heat Warning in effect for desert valley locations now through Thursday. Conditions will remain dry through the week. && .DISCUSSION...Through next Sunday. A weak cut-off low approached the southern California coast over the weekend and brought breezy southwest winds in addition to mid-level moisture that resulted in partly cloudy skies across the southeastern Great Basin on Sunday. This low will start to retrograde back into the ocean through the day today, though partly cloudy skies are possible again across northern Mohave and eastern Clark counties with virga visible and an occasional sprinkle possible in the higher elevations. Otherwise, heights will increase in its wake as a growing area of high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean builds eastward, which will result in continuous record-breaking heat across the Desert Southwest through the week. Las Vegas has only reached 100 6 times in October since records began in 1937. This year, October is forecast to experience numerous 100-degree days. The latest NBM totes an 83% chance of 100 on October 1st, 80% chance on October 2nd, 75% chance on October 3rd, and 75% chance on October 4th, with chances decreasing heading into next weekend. Excessive Heat Warnings currently go out through Tuesday for the Las Vegas Valley and Moapa Valley and through Thursday for Death Valley, the Colorado River Valley, southern San Bernardino County, and south/central Mohave County. We will continue to assess the need for extensions of these warnings with each shift, as this late-summer heat is not only unprecedented, but is dangerous. Statistically, heat-related illnesses increase at the end of the summer due to body fatigue from fighting heat for months. These impacts will be exacerbated after the all-time record-breaking summer that 2024 was for the Desert Southwest. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and diurnal winds through the TAF period, with only a 25% chance of sustained winds reaching 10+ knots. A few mid-level clouds are possible at times, but generally clear skies are expected. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Typical diurnal breezes anticipated across the area today. Sustained winds remain less than 10 knots at most sites, but KDAG and KBIH may see periods of 10-12 knots this afternoon. Mostly clear skies with just a few mid-level clouds possible over the Las Vegas and Colorado River Valleys. && .CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 2 degrees of the daily record. The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 2 degrees of the forecast). MAX MON, SEP 30 TUE, OCT 1 WED, OCT 2 THU, OCT 3 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 101(2015)* 103(1978)* 100(1980)* 99(2012)* Bishop 95(1980)* 97(1980)* 96(2020)* 96(1980)* Needles 108(2010)* 108(2020)* 109(1980)* 107(2020)* Daggett 104(1980)* 105(1980)* 105(1980)* 102(1980)* Kingman 98(2010)* 99(2020)* 100(1980)* 99(1980)* Desert Rock 98(1980)* 100(1980)* 99(2020)* 96(2020)* Death Valley 114(2003) 113(2003)* 113(2012)* 112(1980)* The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 2 degrees of the forecast). WARM MIN MON, SEP 30 TUE, OCT 1 WED, OCT 2 THU, OCT 3 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 78(2010)* 79(2006)* 76(2010)* 75(2000)* Bishop 55(1957) 54(2006) 57(1992) 54(1948) Needles 81(2011) 89(2003) 80(2006)* 79(2005)* Daggett 73(2010) 74(1980)* 73(2008)* 71(2012)* Kingman 72(1934) 68(2010)* 69(1945)* 72(1928) Desert Rock 72(2018) 69(2018)* 73(2005) 66(2005)* Death Valley 88(1962) 86(2018)* 86(2018)* 85(1943)* && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter