219
FXUS65 KVEF 302322
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
422 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot temperatures continue, peaking today and Tuesday and slowly
  moderating thereafter.

* Increasing moisture will result in a return of thunderstorm
  chances, first across Mohave County on Tuesday, then expanding
  across southern Nevada and eastern San Bernardino County through
  Wednesday. Storm chances may linger across northwestern Arizona
  through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon, highs are well on their way to topping out around 3
to 7 degrees above normal with current temperatures in the mid 90s
and lower 100s across lower elevations, and 80s in the mountains.
Per latest water vapor imagery and 500hPa RUC analysis, a
negatively-tilted ridge remains anchored over the Four Corners
Region, with an approaching trough to the west off of the Central
California Coast that will gradually translate eastward the next
several days. Decreasing thicknesses with this trough as well as
increasing moisture will result in a slow moderation of
temperatures, with highs Tuesday similar to today, but gradually
cooling down and topping out closer to normal by the end of the week
and into this weekend. Fortunately, HeatRisk largely remains in the
Minor to Moderate range, precluding the need for any heat-related
headlines, though those spending time outdoors will still need to
ensure they stay hydrated and as cool as possible.

Ahead of the approaching trough, monsoonal moisture will continue
increasing over the region. This increase in moisture is already
underway today, with precipitable water (PWAT) values over southern
reaches of the forecast area already gradually working toward 100
percent of normal. This increase will be more substantial Tuesday
and especially on Wednesday, as PWATs increase to around 125 to 150
percent of normal per latest ensemble guidance, focused particularly
across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. This moisture,
coincident with the approaching trough to the west and its
associated ascent will yield increasing storm chances. Storm chances
begin ramping up across Mohave County Tuesday afternoon and evening,
gradually expanding northward and westward through Wednesday, with
current expectations for storm potential to peak Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening. Storm chances look to linger into Thursday,
particularly across portions of Mohave County, though the timing of
the aforementioned trough will make a difference as it ushers in
drier air, shunting moisture and storm chances eastward. In its
wake, a return to dry and breezy conditions is expected for the end
of the week through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Wind
direction may vary early this TAF period but should eventually
settle to the southwest. Gusty winds continue through sunset,
after which gusts should decrease but direction will stay
southwesterly through the night. Variable winds develop tomorrow
morning before another round of gusty south-southwest winds
arrives in the afternoon. Mid level cloud cover develops tomorrow
afternoon, mainly over high terrain. Temperatures should fall to
less than 100 degrees by 04Z, increasing to over 100 degrees
between 18Z and 04Z tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusts should diminish
for most locations after sunset. The exception will be the western
Mojave Desert including KDAG, where gusty westerly winds persist
through the evening, decreasing overnight but remaining out of the
west through the rest of the TAF period. Tomorrow`s winds should be
similar to today`s, with increasing southerly to southwesterly winds
at most locations in the afternoon. Isolated convection is possible
over high terrain in Mohave County in the afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Phillipson
AVIATION...Meltzer

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