124
FXUS65 KVEF 120351
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
851 PM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through
  northwestern Arizona tonight. Moisture scours out for Sunday,
  leaving the region dry.

* Precipitation chances and gusty winds return Tuesday onward as a
  more traditional cool-season, Pacific system approaches.

* Below normal temperatures are expected after today, and the first
  accumulating snow of the season possible in the Sierra and Whites
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday.

HiRes models show a band of showers and thunderstorms moving
through northeastern Clark County into Mohave County tonight.
These storms will be associated with the best forcing along the
trough axis. These storms will be capable of producing brief heavy
downpours, lightning, gusty winds, and graupel. Due to the fast
motion of these storms as they move from west to east, rainfall
rates would have to be very high in order to see flash flooding.
This trough will move east of the region overnight, and Sunday
will be dry with below normal temperatures on west to
northwesterly flow. Highs on Sunday roughly 10 degrees lower than
Saturday.

The next system is expected to dig down the coast out of the Pacific
Northwest Monday night, moving inland along the central or northern
California Coast around midweek. This will bring continued below
normal temperatures and breezy winds to the region through much of
the week. EFIs suggest the strongest winds should be Monday and
Tuesday afternoons as the pressure gradient increased ahead of the
upper level system. Widespread southwest winds gusting 25-35 MPH are
expected, with the potential for impactful wind gusts over 40 MPH in
parts of the Southern Great Basin. As the system moves inland, winds
will decrease the rest of the week as the low center moves over.
Temperatures will remain well below normal through the period, with
the coldest temperatures expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. A Freeze Watch may be needed for the Owens Valley Monday
night, if not definitely Tuesday night as ensembles probabilities
show increasing chances for low temperatures below 32F at Bishop and
the valley areas.

As this system moves inland, it will drag modest moisture into
California. Precipitation chances increases on the western half of
the CWA, with the highest chances in the Sierra. With snow levels
dropping to around 7000ft, snow accumulations are possible in the
Sierra and Whites. Confidence in snow amounts and details are low as
a lot will depend on where the IVT sets up, how long it will persist
in any given area, and how much moisture will be overtop the crest.
A Winter Storm Watch is possible for above 7000ft with the bulk of
the snow falling Tuesday early morning through the evening. Outside
of the Sierra and Whites will be 20-40% through the rest of
California and southern Nevada and any rain would be lighter than in
the Sierra and Whites. In eastern Mohave County, the remnants of
another tropical system bring 20-40% PoPs on Monday, but the bulk of
that precipitation is expected across central and southern Arizona.
Low end rain chance continue through the second half of the week as
the low center tracks across central Nevada into Utah.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. 8 to 12 knot
southwesterly winds will pick up and swing around to the north as
a cold front moves through the valley in the next few hours. 20 to
25 knot wind gusts will accompany this front, continuing through
the early morning hours. Winds will continue to favor a northerly
direction through the morning, becoming northeasterly in the
afternoon. Winds will become light and variable late tomorrow
afternoon as they begin to veer around to the southwest in a
typical diurnal fashion.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Thunderstorms will
continue to move through northwestern Arizona as the upper-level
trough axis swings through tonight. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions,
lightning, rain, and gusty winds will be possible should any
storms move directly over TAF sites. While there is currently no
mention of showers or thunderstorms for the Colorado River Valley
TAF sites, they are the most likely of the TAF sites to see
impacts from these storms. Otherwise, westerly winds will
continue across the western Mojave Desert with 20-30KT gusts
through the evening hours. These westerly winds will decrease in
speed through the overnight hours, swinging around to the east
tomorrow morning in a typical diurnal fashion. A front will move
through the region from northwest to southeast through the period,
with gusty northerly to northwesterly in the Owens Valley and
across Nye and Esmeralda Counties moving into Clark County and the
Colorado River Valley tonight through early Sunday morning. Winds
will favor a northerly component Sunday morning, but speeds will
diminish through Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected on
Sunday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Stessman

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