795
FXUS65 KVEF 111752
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1051
AM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above-normal temperatures continue through the first half of the
  week, with Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in effect.

* Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity possible across various
  parts of the forecast area, with best chances in our eastern zones
  mid-to-late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Monday.

The Desert Southwest remains sandwiched between two ridges - one
over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and one over New Mexico. Over
the next few days, the Pacific Northwest high will meander
southeastward, centering itself over our forecast area by Tuesday.
As a result, expect persistent above-normal temperatures, with
afternoon readings ranging 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal normals.
Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect for Death Valley National Park,
western and southern San Bernardino County, far southern Nye County,
northwestern Clark County, and southern Mohave County at 10 AM this
morning, with areas expanding to include the Las Vegas Valley,
eastern and southern Clark County, and eastern San Bernardino County
on Tuesday. Heat Advisories are in effect on Tuesday for the Owens
Valley, Esmeralda County, central Nye County, Lincoln County,
northern Mohave County, and the Clark County Mountains, as higher
elevations will provide minimal respite from valley heat.
Today and Tuesday, expect widespread Moderate Heat Risk, with increasing
coverage of Major Heat Risk (with isolated instances of Extreme) across
lower elevations. With the center of the high overhead, temperatures
are slower to cool off Wednesday onward. Will continue to assess over
the next couple of shifts, but temperatures in lower elevations may
warrant an extension of Extreme Heat Warnings into Wednesday. Troughing
approaches the Pacific Northwest late-week, which will deamplify the
aforementioned ridges and bring cooler temperatures to the region heading
into next weekend.

Another cell formed over the San Bernardino Mountains south of State
Route 62 yesterday afternoon. PWATs will retreat from southern San
Bernardino County today as the PacNW high noses into the region, so
we are not expecting anymore shower or thunderstorm activity this
afternoon. As mentioned in previous forecast discussions, modest
moisture increases across the southern Great Basin on Wednesday,
which has increased PoPs on Wednesday across our northern zones to
10 to 20%. Meanwhile, both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble means indicate
that a southerly flow mid-to-late week will bring 0.75 to 1.25 inches
of monsoonal PWAT to far southern Nevada, far southeastern California,
and northwestern Arizona. PoPs will range 30 to 50% across eastern
Mohave County Wednesday through Saturday, with between 10 and 30%
PoPs across Lincoln, Clark, and eastern San Bernardino counties. Most
likely impacts include gusty winds, frequent lightning, and isolated
instances of heavy rainfall, particularly with storms that form over
the higher terrain.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Northeast winds are expected this afternoon with speeds
likely remaining under 10KT. Winds will become southwest after
sunset, remaining under 8KT overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds
will be more east Tuesday afternoon compared to today, but will
continue to be light under 10KT. No operationally significant clouds
or weather expected at the terminal. Temperatures meet or exceed 100
degrees through 05Z today, peaking around 109 degrees. Temperatures
will climb above 100F again on Tuesday from 18Z-05Z with a high of
111 degrees.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Typical wind patterns
are expected today and tonight with wind speeds generally remaining
under 10KT. North to northwest winds at KBIH may briefly peak at
10KT with a few gusts of 15-20KT between 00Z-03Z this evening, but
then quickly diminish again tonight. The Western Mojave Desert will
see stronger west winds like they usually do around 00Z this evening
with wind speeds of 10-15KT through the night. Gusts to around 25KT
are expected for a few hours at KDAG tonight. Lofted smoke across
San Bernardino County and far southern Nevada may reduce slantwise
visibility at times. VFR conditions with mostly clear skies expected
through the period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Nickerson

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