653
FXUS65 KVEF 070235
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
635 PM PST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Chances of precipitation push through the forecast area
this evening along a band extending from northwest-to- southeast.
Light showery activity continue in the Southern Great Basin
tonight through Friday morning before conditions clear out
through the day Friday. Gusty southwest winds expected into this
evening across the Mojave Desert, with breezy northwest winds in
the southwestern Great Basin. Temperatures moderate over the
weekend with clear skies before unsettled weather returns next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...Isolated shower activity persists this evening, primarily
across central and northern portions of the CWA. Snow levels remain
between 3500-4500 feet, so light snow and minor accumulations are
possible at or above these elevations. Because of this, going to
keep the Winter Storm Warnings in effect for now. However, while
winds remain gusty, they have weakened enough to cancel all of our
Wind Advisories.

As a shortwave trough near Point Conception moves inland across
SoCal, we`ll see light stratiform precipitation slide across
southern San Bernardino and southern Mohave counties tonight and
tomorrow. This will bring accumulating snow and minor impacts to the
Hualapai Mountains and Interstate 40 near Fort Rock. Latest NBM has
a 70% chance of 1"+ and a 25% chance of 4"+. Farther north, isolated
shower activity lingers in the AZ Strip, Lincoln County, and Clark
County tomorrow. Precipitation chances come to an end across the
entire CWA by Friday night, leaving us dry through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Friday Night.

A reinforcing piece of energy will dig south along the backside of
the broad upper level trough tonight into Friday.This will help hang
back and enhance the negative tilt of the main upper level trough as
it tries to shift east. So the first low center thats bringing our
precipitation chances through this evening in Lincoln, Clark, and
northern Mohave counties will lift northeast and decrease
precipitation chances in those areas tonight, meanwhile the second
shortwave will result in an uptick in precipitation chances in Inyo,
Esmeralda, and central Nye counties. Moisture with this second wave
will be rapidly decreasing, so precipitation impacts will be more
isolated and lower than what occurred yesterday. The best chances
will be in the terrain. The system is a quick mover so precipitation
would also be limited in time. By Friday morning, precipitation
chances will shift into the terrain of the Spring Mountains and
Lincoln County with similar expectations and impacts as what
occurred further west. a Winter Storm Warning continues through 10AM
Friday on the Spring Mountains as well as in Lincoln County above
5000ft, though the best chance for additional snow accumulations and
snow impacts will be through the first part of tonight with the
first exiting wave. Additional accumulations of an inch or two are
possible with this second wave, which may be quick hitting so will
keep the Winter Storm Warning going for now especially as it snows
through this evening which will impact roadways. On Friday, the
second wave will round the base of the trough axis and shift into
eastern Nevada and Arizona. Moisture will be too low to get much
precipitation, though some isolated showers in the terrain of
eastern Lincoln through Mohave County are possible at times with the
better dynamics then cold core processes in the afternoon.
Precipitation and impacts will be limited Friday afternoon with
anything that develops. By Friday night, the entire trough begins
to move away and even drier air filters in on northerly flow- thus
dry conditions are likely Friday night.

Winds continue to be gusty late this afternoon. Widespread southwest
gusts of 30-40 MPH have been reported through San Bernardino, Clark,
and parts of Mohave County associated with the base of the upper
level trough. The strongest winds continue to be in the Western
Mojave Desert where gusts to around 40 MPH are still being reported
and a wind advisory is i effect through this evening. A wind
advisory also remains in effect for the valleys of southern Clark
County through this evening, and while gusts have dropped closer to
30 MPH, with strong crosswinds expected to continue through the
evening commute- will not make any changes to the wind headline at
this time. Gusty southwest winds will continue across southern
portions of the area through this evening then dissipate tonight.
Meanwhile, winds will become north to northwest through Friday
morning with the second piece of energy digging through the area.
Probabilities for gusts over 40 MPH do jump to 70%+ tonight in parts
of Esmeralda, Nye, and eastern Inyo County, however those higher
probabilities are main in the terrain while valleys will likely see
gusts to around 25 MPH so impacts should be limited. By morning, the
wave will lose its vigor and begin to phase with the main trough,
so winds will not pack as much of a punch on Friday. North to
northwest winds are expected across the region Friday with gusts of
15 to 25 MPH expected in  the valleys and gusts up to 30 MPH
possible in the terrain. High temperatures on Friday will be a bit
warmer than today as we should see more sun than we did today.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.

By Saturday, we will see ridging building in over the area as the
upper-level trough responsible for the unsettled weather exits
the region. As this ridge builds over the area we will see gusty
winds down the Colorado River Valley on Saturday as a result of
the north-south pressure gradient. These winds will result in
choppy waves and difficult boating conditions on Lake Mohave.
Winds will relax down the Colorado River Valley on Sunday with
temperatures returning to near-normal for early March. Sunday`s
mild weather will be short-lived as our active weather pattern is
set to continue with another low pressure system impacting the
region during the first half of next week. While it is too early
to start talking about the finer details of next week`s forecast
due to interensemble discrepancies regarding the evolution and
trajectory of this system, we can expect the return of gusty
winds, cooler-than-normal temperatures, and increased
precipitation chances. Long term guidance shows another system
following on the heels of this early week system, which will keep
the unsettled weather going through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty
southwest winds will continue into the afternoon with sustained
speeds of 20 to 25 knots and gusts to 35 knots likely.  A few gusts
may exceed 35 knots through 21Z, and there is a 30% chance of seeing
a gust to 40 knots.  Winds will gradually decrease during the late
afternoon and evening before falling below 10 knots after 08Z. While
wind directions should remain mainly westerly, a few convective
showers in the vicinity of the field are possible between 20Z and
03Z, and these will have the potential to disrupt the westerly winds
and produce gusty variable winds for a short period. Before daybreak
tomorrow, winds should veer to the northwest, with gusts to around
20 knots developing by late morning.   Skies should remain SCT to
BKN with any CIGs remaining 10kft AGL or higher. However, FEW to SCT
clouds with bases of 6kft to 8kft AGL are possible this afternoon
and evening, especially closer to the higher terrain west of the
field.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to what is described above for
Harry Reid, except the wind shift for KHND will be delayed until
closer to 18Z.  Winds at KBIH will remain northerly, with gusts to
around 25 knots continuing through the afternoon before decreasing
overnight.  A few showers in the vicinity of the field will be
possible from mid-afternoon through early evening, although the
chances of rain falling at the field are low (less than 25%). Winds
on Friday will increase out of the north during the morning, with a
35 to 40 percent chance of seeing gusts over 30 knots after 16Z.
Shower activity near KDAG should remain south of the field.  Winds
will likely remain gusty through the afternoon, with occasional
gusts of up to 40 knots. Winds will decrease overnight only to
increase again tomorrow.  In the Colorado River Valley, southwest-to-
west winds gusting to near 30 knots are likely through the
afternoon.  Winds will decrease to less than 12 knots overnight and
should turn to the north after 15Z tomorrow, with gusts to 25kts
returning by the afternoon. Skies should remain SCT to BKN with any
CIGs remaining 10kft AGL or higher at most sites. CIGs near KBIH may
fall to 6kft to 8kft AGL near any showers this afternoon and
evening.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Woods
SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Stessman
AVIATION...Planz

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