134
FXUS65 KVEF 032154
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
254 PM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm activity should taper off
tonight. Tomorrow`s showers should be limited to eastern Mohave
County. The main concern for Friday and Saturday is gusty northerly
winds, especially along the Colorado River. Above normal
temperatures return by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in southern Nevada,
northwestern Arizona, and eastern San Bernardino County. Most cells
developed over high terrain where orographic lift assisted in
development. Vertical growth across the area was spurred by cold air
aloft and steep lapse rates as seen on this morning`s sounding and
some cells are likely producing small hail. Most gauges are
reporting around .1 inch of precipitation over the last 12 hours,
but a few gauges in northern Mohave County and the Mojave Preserve
are reporting over .3 inch. Snow levels sit between 4700 and 5000
feet. A break in the cloud cover revealed fresh snow in northern
Mohave County above 5000 feet and a few flakes were reported at
Mountain Springs in Clark County. Shower activity should taper off
this evening as atmospheric instability decreases after sunset.
Precipitable water will also decrease as moisture moves east with
the exiting system. For tomorrow, isolated showers should be limited
to eastern Mohave County, where .3 to .4 PWAT remains and around 200
J/kg CAPE returns in the afternoon. Dry conditions are expected on
Saturday as the trough exits east and moisture decreases further.

Attention turns to wind on Friday and Saturday. Northerly flow and
enhanced low level winds develop along the periphery of a ridge
centered off the West Coast and the exiting low as it centers over
Arizona. Most of the area will experience gusts between 15 and 25
mph on Friday, increasing to 25 to 35 mph on Saturday. There is a 50
percent probability of gusts reaching 40 mph in a localized area
between Laughlin and Needles on Friday according to the NBM.
However, this area expands to from Laughlin to Lake Havasu City on
Saturday and also encompasses swaths of San Bernardino and Inyo
counties. Will continue to monitor to determine the need for
headline issuance.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.

Through the weekend and start of next week, skies clear and
temperatures increase above seasonal normals as a ridge of high
pressure builds in the Pacific across the Desert Southwest. Monday
and Tuesday have a 95% and 100% chance, respectively, for reaching
80 degrees here in Las Vegas. HeatRisk increases back to "Low"
(Level 1 on a scale of 0-4) for desert valleys over the weekend
including Las Vegas, Moapa Valley, Death Valley, Pahrump Valley, and
the Colorado River Valley.

[Note] "Low" HeatRisk does not mean that chances of heat-related
illness are low for any one individual - it means chances are low
for the general population. People who should take extra precautions
during "Low" HeatRisk days include those out of town from cooler
locations, those consuming alcohol, caffeine, or other drugs, and
those without adequate means of hydration or air conditioning.

Meanwhile, chances of 90 degrees return to Las Vegas and 100 degrees
return to Death Valley mid-to-late week as the southeastern Pacific
ridge continues to build into the extended forecast. HeatRisk climbs
to "Moderate" (Level 2 on a scale of 0-4) for our lowest valleys on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...West
winds will prevail through the late afternoon and early evening
before turning more southwesterly in the mid-to-late evening.
After a period of light northerly winds after 10Z, a period of
breezy northeast winds is expected from mid-morning into the early
afternoon. Winds are expected to fall below 10 knots by late
tomorrow afternoon. A few scattered showers will continue into the
early evening, resulting in short-duration interruptions in the
prevailing wind field. When this occurs, expect winds to 25 knots
from the direction of the showers for a period of 15 to 30
minutes.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas Valley TAF sites will be similar to what is described for
Harry Reid. Elsewhere, most areas will continue to experience winds
of less than 10 knots through tonight.  A typical westerly increase
is expected across the western Mojave Desert, including KDAG, after
02Z, when gusts of up to 20 knots will be possible.  Mainly
favorable winds will continue on Friday, except in the lower
Colorado River Valley, where gusty northerly winds of up to 25 knots
are forecast to develop after 15Z.   A few scattered showers will
continue into this evening, mainly over far eastern Nevada and
northwest Arizona. Expect brief, gusty winds of up to 25 knots in
and near any activity that develops.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the region through Friday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz

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