975
FXUS65 KVEF 112250
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
350 PM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and storms continue a flood threat for mainly
  Lincoln and Mohave counties today. Moisture scours out for Sunday,
  leaving the region dry.

* Precipitation chances and gusty winds return Tuesday onward as a
  more traditional cool-season, Pacific system approaches.

* Below normal temperatures are expected after today, and the first
  accumulating snow of the season possible in the Sierra and Whites
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday.

Mesoanalysis through the morning showed moisture continuing to shift
east as a trough with drier air moved in. The highest moisture
through the rest of the day is expected over Mohave County,
northeast Clark County, and eastern Lincoln County. This moisture
combined with daytime heating leading to modest destabilization
should lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
While precipitation and impacts may be more isolated than the past
few days, any storms today could result in heavy rain and train over
the terrain- which could result in flash flooding. Will hang on to
the Flash Flood Watch for Lincoln and Mohave counties even though
the threat is lower today as the risk for flash flooding is not
null. The best chances for thunderstorms and impacts will be Mohave
County where hi-res models have the most thunderstorm activity and
HREF shows the highest rainfall amounts. In addition to heavy rain,
any storms today could contain sudden gusty winds as dry air
intrudes the midlevels. As the sun sets and the trough continues to
move east, precipitation chances should quick end this evening. A
few models have a band of rain with isolated thunderstorms
developing in eastern Lincoln this evening then moving into Mohave
County tonight, likely associated with the best forcing along the
trough axis- uncertain if this will develop but if it does it
should not be overly impactful as it will move east quickly and
there probabilities for significant rainfall amounts are low. By
tonight, the trough will move east of the region, and Sunday will
be dry with below normal temperatures on west to northwesterly
flow. Highs on Sunday roughly 10 degrees lower than Saturday.

The next system is expected to dig down the coast out of the Pacific
Northwest Monday night, moving inland along the central or northern
California Coast around midweek. This will bring continued below
normal temperatures and breezy winds to the region through much of
the week. EFIs suggest the strongest winds should be Monday and
Tuesday afternoons as the pressure gradient increased ahead of the
upper level system. Widespread southwest winds gusting 25-35 MPH are
expected, with the potential for impactful wind gusts over 40 MPH in
parts of the Southern Great Basin. As the system moves inland, winds
will decrease the rest of the week as the low center moves over.
Temperatures will remain well below normal through the period, with
the coldest temperatures expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. A Freeze Watch may be needed for the Owens Valley Monday
night, if not definitely Tuesday night as ensembles probabilities
show increasing chances for low temperatures below 32F at Bishop and
the valley areas.

As this system moves inland, it will drag modest moisture into
California. Precipitation chances increases on the western half of
the CWA, with the highest chances in the Sierra. With snow levels
dropping to around 7000ft, snow accumulations are possible in the
Sierra and Whites. Confidence in snow amounts and details are low as
a lot will depend on where the IVT sets up, how long it will persist
in any given area, and how much moisture will be overtop the crest.
A Winter Storm Watch is possible for above 7000ft with the bulk of
the snow falling Tuesday early morning through the evening. Outside
of the Sierra and Whites will be 20-40% through the rest of
California and southern Nevada and any rain would be lighter than in
the Sierra and Whites. In eastern Mohave County, the remnants of
another tropical system bring 20-40% PoPs on Monday, but the bulk of
that precipitation is expected across central and southern Arizona.
Low end rain chance continue through the second half of the week as
the low center tracks across central Nevada into Utah.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Any
convection in Arizona should wane by 09Z as a line of showers and
storms develops and potentially moves through Mohave County after
00Z, then precipitation is not expected across the region through
Sunday. Breezy south to southwest winds gusting over 20KT at all the
valley terminals through the early evening. Southwest winds will
stop gusting for a period around 03Z but speeds will remain elevated
at about 10KT. Eventually winds will become northerly tonight,
likely between 09Z-12Z, with gusts to 20KT returning as winds change
direction. North winds will continue through Sunday morning but
slowly diminish with gusts ending after sunrise then speeds dropping
under 8KT and becoming northeast Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions
will prevail through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected across western Arizona through this
evening, potentially lingering through 06Z-09Z. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions will be possible should any storms move directly over TAF
sites, with the main TAFs of concern being EED and IFP. Gusty south
to southwest winds will continue across southern Nevada and
northwestern Arizona with widespread gusts 20-30KT expected.
Meanwhile westerly winds push into the western Mojave Desert will
gust 25-30KT at times through this evening. A front will move
through the region from northwest to southeast through the period,
with gusty northerly to northwesterly in the Owens Valley and across
Nye and Esmeralda Counties this afternoon transitioning into Clark
County and the Colorado River Valley tonight or early Sunday
morning. Winds will diminish through Sunday afternoon. VFR
conditions are expected on Sunday. &&

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Nickerson


For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter