959
FXUS65 KVEF 120751
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1251 AM PDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, locally stronger,
are expected today along with pockets of blowing dust. Temperatures
will cool five to ten degrees today and another 10 to 15 degrees
Tuesday, followed by a slow rebound for the remainder of the week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday night. Midnight satellite loop showed
mountain-enhanced clouds coming off the Sierra Nevada, White
Mountains and nearby ranges, while skies were clear farther
southeast. Surface obs showed winds gusting 35 to 55 mph in the
northwest zones and the higher terrain farther southeast. These
winds were keeping the low levels well mixed, so temperatures were
warm and dewpoints were low. The main concern for today and tonight
is still wind. One change was made to the headlines - the Wind
Advisory was upgraded to a High Wind Warning in the Spring Mountains
and the western Clark/southern Nye County zone. In this pattern, we
often see mountain waves come off the northwest corner of the Spring
Mountains and impact Highway 95 near Mercury, where the mountains
and highway are almost parallel, resulting in severe crosswinds. All
other Advisories and Warnings look good and were left as is. Winds
should begin to settle down tonight and diminish further Tuesday
morning. High temperatures today will be about five to ten degrees
cooler than Sunday, followed by another 10 to 15 degrees of cooling
on Tuesday as the trough axis arrives. The wind and sharp cooling
will be the main stories for the vast majority of our CWA, as
chances for (light) precip on Tuesday will be limited to the Sierra
crest and northern Lincoln County.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.

The trough responsible for Monday and Tuesday`s windy conditions and
Tuesday`s sharply cooler temperatures will translate east of the
region on Wednesday. In the wake of this trough, temperatures begin
a gradual rebound, warming to near or above normal by the end of the
week. However, the warming will be tempered somewhat by persistent
northwesterly to quasi-zonal flow aloft as the western CONUS remains
entrenched in a longwave trough pattern through the upcoming weekend
and beyond. This pattern allows for additional disturbances to slide
through the region, the next of which looks to be Sunday into
Monday. Cluster analyses and ensembles remain in agreement regarding
the presence of the upcoming shortwave, however discrepancies remain
regarding the depth, timing, and trajectory of this system. Overall,
another round of breezy to windy conditions as well as cooler
temperatures could be expected, but just how windy and how cool
remains in question. Stay tuned.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Gusty
south-southwest winds will continue through tonight. Gusts will
become more intermittent overnight, but a few gusts to around 20
knots will continue through daybreak.  Winds will increase again
tomorrow, with southwest gusts of 35 to 40 knots likely during the
afternoon, followed by slowly improving conditions overnight and
Tuesday. VFR conditions prevail with FEW-SCT high clouds with bases
remaining AOA 15kft AGL.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to what is described above for
Harry Reid. Elsewhere, winds will diminish overnight, although gusts
of 20 to 25 knots will remain possible across the western Mojave
Desert, Owens Valley, and southern Nevada.  Winds will be lighter in
the Colorado River Valley.  Winds will increase again tomorrow with
widespread areas of 30 to 40 knots winds likely, and localized gusts
to 50 knots possible over and near areas of higher terrain.  VFR
conditions prevail with FEW-BKN clouds with bases generally
remaining AOA 15kft to 20kft AGL.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Planz

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