141
FXUS65 KVEF 281731
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
931 AM PST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Light breezes and above-normal temperatures persist
through Saturday. Our next impactful system brings widespread gusty
winds and precipitation chances on Sunday and Monday. The pattern
remains active as another trough takes aim later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday.

The cut-off low over central AZ that was responsible for the breezy
conditions today has begun to fizzle out. This process will continue
today as a stronger cut-off system approaches SoCal, moving through
our southern CWA on Saturday. Not expecting much in terms of
sensible weather. Breezy southeast winds can be expected across
portions of San Bernardino and Mohave counties, but chances for
impactful winds is less than 20%. With limited moisture to work
with, precipitation chances are low (20-30%) and confined to eastern
Mohave County Saturday afternoon and evening. Anything that falls
will be light, with 90th percentile QPF at a tenth or less. For the
rest of the area, dry conditions with light breezes. Temperatures
remain above normal as most locations top out in the 70s or low
80s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday.

A progressive weather pattern will continue through next week as
multiple systems quickly transition through the region at times.

Sunday into Monday, a trough will move through the Southwest US,
deepening as it does so. With a strengthening low and increasing
pressure gradient, wind impacts are expected. NBM shows high
probabilities for at least 40 MPH gusts on Sunday in most areas, and
low to moderate probabilities for higher gusts through much of
California into southwest Nevada. EFIs also hint at higher than
normal centered around late Sunday and Monday. Increasing confidence
for wind impacts Sunday into Monday, with less confidence in the
level of impacts and locations that would see the strongest winds.
Gusty west to southwest winds will develop Sunday night into Monday,
then wind will become north later on Monday as the central of the
low light northeast into Utah.

Precipitation will also be possible with the Monday system. Moisture
increases in the Southern Great Basin where PWATs will climb to near
normal or slightly above normal. THe highest chance for
precipitation will be in the Southern Great Basin, including central
Nevada. Probabilities for precipitation amounts in 24 hours over
0.25in is 30% or lower in most valley areas, and top out around 50%
in higher terrain such as the Sierra and Spring Mountains. So
overall, not expecting significant impacts with the Sunday-Monday
system. Snow levels will start around 6000ft before falling to
4000ft Sunday night and Monday. Will need to watch for snow impacts
in parts of Lincoln County where snow may be able to reach lower
elevations including roadways, but overall with limited moisture-
winter impacts will be limited as the Sierra and Springs will likely
see 6 inches or less with this system

After a brief period of ridging Tuesday another system will swing
into the region Wednesday or Thursday. Ensembles show timing
discrepancies with this trough, so confidence in details and impacts
are low. Another round of precipitation and wind impacts would be
possible as this system would be similar or slightly weaker to the
system moving through Sunday and Monday. Significant moisture or
strong low level winds are not noted on any long range models, so
high impact weather is currently not expected Wednesday or Thursday.

Sunday will be the last above normal temperature day before cooler
temperatures move into the region next week. Even then,
temperatures will remain near normal through the period, so "cool"
would be relative to the recent well above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
will remain light, 10 knots or less, and will follow typical diurnal
directional trends. FEW to BKN mid and high clouds will filter
through the area but will not have any impacts on operations.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds at the Las Vegas
Valley TAF sites and BIH will remain light, 10 knots or less, and
will follow typical diurnal directional trends with periods of light
and variable winds as they transition. DAG will also follow typical
diurnal trends,sustained speeds of 15 knots or less. Winds in the
Colorado River Valley will favor a northerly direction. IFP will see
20 to 25 knot gusts continue for the next few hours with winds
gradually decreasing throughout the afternoon. Both Colorado River
Valley TAF sites will become light and variable overnight before
swinging to the north again tomorrow morning. FEW to BKN mid and
high clouds will filter through the area but will not have any
impacts on operations.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Woods
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Stessman

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